De La Hoya: bigger and better?

Ultimately size will surely matter. De La Hoya's no slow-coach either: he's not what he was, but he's still fast, intelligent and shouldn't have gone back far enough to lose this.

Adam Smith
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DE LA HOYA v PACQUIAO
12 Rounds Welterweight
JUDGEMENT NIGHT
10pm, Saturday, December 6
Live on Sky Box Office & HD
Call 08442 410888 to book!
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Saturday sees one of the most intriguing Vegas showdowns in recent years.

What is not in doubt is that Oscar De La Hoya and Manny Pacquiao are great great fighters. Two ring legends of the modern era and on paper, it doesn't get much better than the most magnetic boxer on earth tackling the current pound-for-pound king. Tickets for the fight were apparently sold out within one hour - proof that this is extremely appealing.

Both are multi-weight world champions: the Golden Boy from super-featherweight to middleweight; The Pac-Man from flyweight to lightweight. But therein also lies the problem.

Is Pacquiao anywhere near big enough? His first fight was at 7stone 8lbs and De La Hoya has fought above 11stone. On June 23rd 2001, Pacquiao won the world super-bantamweight tile by stopping Lehlohonolo Ledwaba, at 8stone 10lbs, while De La Hoya was beating Javier Castillejo for the world light-middleweight crown at 11stone on the same night. A 32lbs difference!

Against that De La Hoya is a part-time fighter these days: he's older, more inactive, hasn't made welterweight for nearly eight years, and is not quite as fast as he once was. He's also lost three of his last six fights, and has struggled with smaller boxers. Can Oscar pull the trigger any more? Does he have the stomach for a real war at this stage?

As part of Sky Sports coverage, we visited Pacquiao first in Los Angeles. He's always in supreme shape, a ferociously dedicated trainer. However, when I went running with Manny and Amir Khan - and they sailed past me - word came back that Manny had found the mountain trail hard and he had stopped a couple of times.

We were up at dawn the next day to see Amir sprinting alongside Manny, but the Filipino didn't come. Stamina and commitment have never been problems for Pacquiao, but read into it this what you will.

While Amir's fighting back for redemption and is hugely ambitious, Manny has already made millions of dollars, and has a fan base of millions back in the Philippines.

Maybe there's nothing to it, but I always look at the little things in the run-up. I also interviewed him for 20 minutes and he never once said he was going to win. So Pacquiao's either quietly assured, or maybe he realises, deep down, that this is an enormous ask.

Savage

Freddie Roach is extremely confident that Team Pacquiao will beat De La Hoya. Roach is a wise boxing man and he just thinks he has the right guy at the right time. Mind you that's what Buddy McGirt told me about Paulie Malignaggi!

Freddie of course trained De La Hoya and claims he has spotted weaknesses to exploit. He believes that Pacquiao's speed will undo him, that he might be small but he is still a savage force. Roach and promoter Bob Arum are convinced that Pacquiao will shock the world, and that De La Hoya has made an enormous mistake.

Freddie's brilliant, but it must be noted that in big fights recently he came off the loser when De La Hoya went in with Floyd Mayweather and with Bernard Hopkins against Joe Calzaghe.

We visited De La Hoya back up in the Big Bear mountains, more than 9,000 feet above LA. I used to see him before fights at the house he once owned and trained in, way up in the remote resort. When I walked into his gym this time he said: "Adam, I can't believe you're still doing this, after all these years!" I said: "I can't believe you are!"

Last week it became 16 years as a professional for Oscar - and let's not forget his long, illustrious amateur career too. Even though he doesn't appear to be in fast decline as a fighter, he felt he had to return to Big Bear to re-fuel the fire. A few years ago, he carved his name into a small tree, and the tree has now grown. Oscar has been back to see it, to breathe in the tight, clean air and to train like a demon once more.

I know Oscar well, and I know he would never cut corners in preparation. Ever. Not in his character. Whether he still has enough at the elite level is another matter entirely. He must continue to prove his skills haven't eroded, but he looked in outstanding shape in camp. He told me he was already on weight, and that was at the beginning of November.

He seems refreshed under the excellent Mexican trainer Nacho Beristain. He's been sparring with the big-punching southpaw Edwin Valero and Golden Boy's hot hope Victor Ortiz. Oscar says the hunger is still burning, and he really wants to fight Ricky Hatton in Britain next year.

Younger

So will De La Hoya be just too big? Or is Pacquiao fast and fit enough to stay with him? The Filipino southpaw must use his younger legs and ring smart to get in and out quickly. But I thought he was lucky to get a draw and a win over Juan Manuel Marquez. The tip-top Mexican is also trained by Beristain and has a similar sort of style to De La Hoya's.

There are other key questions: Will Pacquiao be able to take De La Hoya's power - especially from the left hook? Can Pacquiao hurt De La Hoya to the body? Will he even get that opportunity?

Pacquiao's not that defensively cute, and he's been stopped twice, albeit a long time ago. He's aggressive, and a speedy, strong southpaw, but the weight worries me.

Roy Jones Jnr managed to leap up two divisions to become world heavyweight champion when he beat John Ruiz, but then De La Hoya's in a completely different class to that decent but unspectacular champion, Ruiz. The Golden Boy also knows how hard it is to go up too far. That bodyshot knockout by Hopkins still really rattles him.

If he can pull this off, Pacquiao will become a global superstar. He's already massive in the Philippines, but I don't think this will be his night.

Ultimately size will surely matter. De La Hoya's no slow-coach either: he's not what he was, but he's still fast, intelligent and shouldn't have gone back far enough to lose this. Oscar's head movement's become a touch more static of late, but with the enormous height and reach advantages he possesses, that shouldn't be too much of a worry.

Legacy

Moreover, if Manny finds he's not the quicker man, how is he going to win? I think Pacquiao may be forced into trading - which will be his downfall.

De La Hoya's now a promoter and he's good at making matches. If he didn't think he'd beat Pacquiao, he wouldn't have accepted this, because a loss here would tarnish his legacy.

I believe that he'll have much too much in his arsenal for a brave, but out-gunned Pacquiao, and I think it will be stopped within the middle rounds. I would love to see Pacquaio extend him into the last third or so, where De La Hoya traditionally struggles, but I'm just not convinced he will.

Some say De La Hoya's on a hiding to nothing. I don't agree. Expect Oscar to use his superb jab and physical size to break Pacquiao down as he adds another name to his list - while making a tonne more money! Then bring on the Hitman, who is the real winner in this.

He'll be ringside in Vegas. If De La Hoya takes out Pacquiao, then that's a huge financially golden match. But Ricky wouldn't mind Pacquiao winning, because then he'd avoid meeting his Golden Boy boss, and he could remain at his favoured 10 stone.

But imagine The Golden Boy against The Hitman in one of the biggest events in British fight history, on our shores.

De La Hoya's been planning this and he usually gets what he wants. Just a fabulous, but tiny, Filipino whirlwind to deal with first - and my prediction is Oscar will. Emphatically.