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Posted: 13th November 2008 14:24
Barbers Shop: ideal profile
Three of the best days of the season lie ahead at Cheltenham with big prizes to be won and clues galore for the rest of the campaign.
Ed Chamberlin
Quotes of the week
Everton have done the business at 6-1 and 3-1 for this blog over the last two weeks and I see no reason why they can't beat Middlesbrough on Super Sunday. However, it may pay to be brave and hold fire on Sky Bet Live until the last 10 minutes when Everton like to do their goalscoring!
Sky Bet could be in for a tough weekend with Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal all looking strong favourites. Man Utd should be far too good for Stoke and have won their last five meetings at Old Trafford, Liverpool have won their last three games against
Bolton, scoring ten goals, while Chelsea have a 100 per cent record in the Premier League against West Brom - six wins out of six, scoring 15 conceding just two. West Brom's last League win against Chelsea came in March 1979 when the Bee Gees (not Steps) were number one in the charts with 'Tragedy'.
Arsenal's youngsters were sublime on Tuesday night and their seniors should follow suit on Saturday. They are unbeaten in the last 19 Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, spanning 10 years, and have not lost at home since 1993. The best bet looks to be Arsenal to score three or more goals at 9-4 with Sky Bet as they've scored 22 in the last nine home Premier League games against Villa.
Goals look guaranteed at Craven Cottage as Tottenham have scored 12 in their last three meetings with Fulham and in the last two Premier League meetings they've scored 12 between them. Harry's done a magnificent job at Spurs and they played well against Liverpool on Wednesday but now looks the time to oppose them. They are such a short price (6-5) to beat a Fulham side that has improved massively over the last couple of weeks and has a good record against Tottenham at home. They are unbeaten in the last six PL meetings at Craven Cottage, winning four, and another home win looks too big a price at 9-4.
Three of the best days of the season lie ahead at Cheltenham with big prizes to be won and clues galore for the rest of the campaign. To win the opening race on Saturday you need an unexposed novice hurdler who has been kept off the handicapper's radar. Martin Pipe farmed this race a few years ago so keep an eye on his son's selected runners but a dark one of interest is Irish raider Maremotto. He showed talent on the flat in Germany and caught the eye under a kind ride at Down Royal this month.
Big Fella Thanks is a confident selection in the novice chase at 1.25. He just got done on the line in his reappearance at Chepstow but will be fitter this time and much better suited by a softer surface. I expect the Big Fella to jump and gallop the others into the ground for the unstoppable Nicholls/Walsh combination.
It will be fascinating to see how Grand National winner Comply Or Die gets on in the staying chase at 2.00 but the winner looks harder to pick than a broken nose.
It's a cracking renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup at 2.35. Silverburn is the horse they all have to beat. On the form book Denman's full brother is ridiculously short at 7-2 with Sky Bet but Paul Nicholls is oozing confidence and says he is flying after a breathing operation in the summer. If Silverburn's going to be the Ryanair Chase contender his connections think he will then he has to go close off a handicap mark of 143.
Better value though lies with my ante-post fancy Barbers Shop, who thankfully has been given the green light to take his chance. The Queen's horse has the ideal profile for this contest with course and distance form, he has been working well at home and Nicky Henderson's horses are currently in rude health. I'm confident we will be cheering home a Royal winner at Cheltenham on Saturday.
The best bet on Sunday is Ashkazar in the Greatwood Hurdle. I fancy David Pipe's strapping four-year-old to develop into a genuine Champion Hurdle contender and don't miss another future star, Tatenen, in the opening novice chase.
Now for the first real Test for Martin Johnson's England. They played better than I expected against the Pacific Islanders but Australia will be a whole new ball game on Saturday afternoon. Robbie Deans is a superb and innovative coach and I can't see England destroying his front row as they have against the Wallabies in the past - but I can see them dominating the forward battle. Mind you, they will have to as if Australia get some decent ball they will cause havoc against England inexperienced backs.
It's going to be a fantastic game of rugby on Sky Sports 2 and HD2 and I think the winner is too hard to call.
Things have gone from bad to worse for England at the World Cup. After a mauling against Australia, they let go a 24-8 half-time lead against New Zealand last weekend. However, the set-up of this competition means England are still alive and have a chance for revenge on Saturday morning (Sky Sports 2), and can still land our ante-post bet on a straight forecast; Australia to beat England in the final. I'm hopeful rather than confident and despite Sky Bet increasing England's head start to 6pts, I think it's impossible to back Tony Smith's men with any confidence right now.
Kris Commons' stunning strike gave Derby County a 1-0 victory over Man United in a thrilling Carling Cup semi-final first leg.
Blackburn claim they are yet to receive any bids for Roque Santa Cruz, while Portsmouth are keen to sign Newcastle's Joey Barton.
Zenit St Petersburg have told Sky Sports News they are only talking to Arsenal about Andrei Arshavin.
Kris Commons has spoken of his delight after his goal gave Derby a win over Manchester United at Pride Park.
Derby County caretaker boss David Lowe praised his side's attitude after a deserved win over Man United.