Monday 15 May 2017 16:57, UK
It's been another exciting group phase of the IPL and we are now at the business end of the competition.
It's been another exciting group phase of the IPL and we are now at the business end of the competition.
Firstly, I'm a big fan of the IPL playoff system. It rewards those finishing in the top two by giving them two chances to get through to the final, and it also helps limit the number of dead games at the end of the group stage as generally the top teams are fighting for one of those positions right till the end. Hats off to the ECB for adopting it for the new English tournament starting in 2020.
It's the Indians, Supergiant, Sunrisers and Knight Riders through to the knockout stages of IPL 10, but who could have the edge when it really matters?
Why they can win
Mumbai have been the most consistent team in the tournament and have the most settled XI. They have pretty much all bases covered with quality batsmen at the top of the order, good finishers, very economical spinners and a variety of seamers who are extremely good at the death. The Indians also have exceptional bench strength with the likes of Lendl Simmons, Mitchell Johnson, Karn Sharma and Ambati Rayudu all coming in at different times and contributing.
Why they can't win
Jos Buttler could be a big loss if Simmons doesn't regain the form he showed in his first innings of the season. They also have to get over a very tough hurdle in the first qualifier - Pune beat them twice in the group stages and could have an important psychological edge.
Why they can win
Pune are the form team of the competition having won eight of their last 10 games. The bowling was a big part of that, as seen by the fact that seven of their bowlers have an economy rate under 8. Steve Smith and MS Dhoni will also add plenty of experience and calmness to ease the pressure of the playoffs.
Why they can't win
With perhaps a thinner squad than others, can they cope with missing key players? Ben Stokes and Imran Tahir were absolutely vital to the Supergiant's success so others will have to find a way to fill their shoes.
Why they can win
If anything, the defending champions look an even better side this year than last. Openers David Warner and Shikhar Dhawan have been superb once again, the seam bowlers have been so good that there's been no room for Mustafizur Rahman in the side, and Rashid Khan has given them cutting edge in the spin department. Last year they beat KKR in the eliminator, then went on to lift the trophy - so why can't the follow the same path in 2017?
Why they can't win
With Kane Williamson left out for the last few games and Yuvraj Singh injured, the middle order has a slightly fragile look to it. If Warner and Dhawan go early, they could be in trouble.
Why they can win
An experienced side. The batting has been very impressive this year and they are spoiled for choice at the top of the order - Gautam Gambhir, Chris Lynn, Sunil Narine or Robin Uthappa can all open. The bowling attack also looks nicely balanced, and their array of spinners could enjoy bowling on what's been a slower Bangalore pitch this year (both the eliminator and second qualifier are at the Chinnaswamy stadium).
Why they can't win
The Sunrisers hammered them in the last group game between the sides, and knocked them out in last year's eliminator. Also, having too many options at the top of the order could be counter-productive - are Gambhir and Uthappa being used in their best positions when they bat 3 and 4? The bowling will also have to cope without leading wicket-taker Chris Woakes.
Much will depend on who is available, but I fancy the Indians and Sunrisers to make the final. It's in Hyderabad this year, where the champions have only lost once this season, so David Warner could well be lifting that trophy for the second year in a row. I also have them in the office sweepstake, so you won't hear me complaining if it happens!
Watch Mumbai Indians versus Rising Pune Supergiant in the first IPL qualifier on Tuesday, live on Sky Sports 1 from 3pm.
