Skip to content

Mark Cavendish and fellow World Championship hopefuls compared

Which sprinters have the best chance of winning in Qatar?

Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel, Tour de France, stage one
Image: Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel are among the favourites for world road race victory

The elite men’s and women’s road races at the UCI Road World Championships in Qatar this weekend will both take place on flat courses that should produce bunch finishes.

Pure sprinters are therefore the favourites for victory, with Mark Cavendish and defending champion Peter Sagan heading the betting for the men, and Jolien D'hoore for the women.

But do the statistics back up the bookmakers' predictions? In the latest instalment of our data series, in partnership with HPE, we have taken a closer look.

HPE Data Zone
HPE Data Zone

Analysis that gives insight, understanding and opinion across major sporting moments. Find out more.

Cavendish has not been the most prolific sprinter of the year, winning seven of the 19 sprints he has contested at a rate of 37 per cent, but close inspection of his results reveals he goes to Qatar with the best recent record and suggests his status as joint-favourite is justified.

Having won only one of his first nine sprints of 2016, he has since gone on to win six of his past 10, a level of success challenged only by the Netherlands' Dylan Groenewegen and Colombia's Fernando Gaviria, who have each won five of their past 10.

Men's 2016 sprinting stats

Rider Sprints contested Sprints won Win percentage Average position Last five sprint results
Marcel Kittel 17 10 59 2.6 2, 5, 1, 9, 8
Fernando Gaviria 12 6 50 3.2 14, 1, 2, 1, 2
Andre Greipel 26 10 38 4.2 10, 1, 6, 9, 2
Mark Cavendish 19 7 37 2.7 1, 8, 1, 1, 2
Dylan Groenewegen 28 10 36 4.4 1, 1, 2, 1, 23
Nacer Bouhanni 29 10 34 3 2, 2, 3, 16, 1
Peter Sagan 16 5 31 2.5 1, 2, 3, 1, 1
Alexander Kristoff 32 10 31 4.1 1, 1, 5, 10, 3
Tom Boonen 10 3 30 4.5 2, 1, 1, 17, 3
Elia Viviani 12 2 16 4.3 13, 2, 10, 2, 5

The only caveats for Cavendish are that his last win was in July and he has been suffering from illness in recent weeks.

Sagan's outstanding consistency means he has the best average sprint position of all the contenders in 2016 - 2.5 - and he too has good form, having won three of his past five sprints.

Also See:

But a win percentage of only 31 per cent suggests making him joint-favourite for the rainbow jersey is slightly optimistic and that an each-way bet would be a wiser punt.

World championships guide
World championships guide

Day-by-day companion to the eight-day event

The rider with the highest win percentage this year is Germany's Marcel Kittel, with 10 victories from 17 sprints at a rate of 59 per cent.

However, having won eight of his first nine sprints of the year, Kittel has since triumphed in only two of his past eight and finished just ninth and eighth in his most recent.

The other leading contenders for victory appear to be Gaviria, Andre Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni and Groenewegen, although whether Greipel is allowed to sprint for victory or be forced to support team-mate Kittel remains to be seen.

Marcel Kittel, Tour de France, stage four
Image: Marcel Kittel has won 59 per cent of his sprints this year

Gaviria has no such worries and is also buoyed by an excellent 2016 record of six wins from 12 sprints plus podium finishes in another three, which puts him level with Sagan on a staggering podium rate of 75 per cent. He also takes excellent recent form into the World Championships, having finished first twice and second twice in his past five sprints.

France's Bouhanni has won 34 per cent of his 29 sprints this year at an average finishing position of third, so he is almost certain to be challenging for a medal and might not be too far off the win either.

Mark Cavendish at the 2016 Tour de France
Image: Cavendish is hoping to win the world title for a second time

Groenewegen has enjoyed a breakthrough year, picking up 10 victories at a rate of 36 per cent, and his aforementioned current fine form suggests he is worth keeping an eye on.

Norway's Alexander Kristoff is not among the leading favourites but could be a serious threat. Three of his 10 wins this season came at February's Tour of Qatar, so although his 31 per cent win rate is not the best, he has excellent pedigree in the Middle East.

Tom Boonen, RideLondon
Image: Tom Boonen has an unrivalled record in Qatar

However, his record in the desert is surpassed by Belgium's Tom Boonen, who has 22 stage victories at the Tour of Qatar to his name and has also won three sprints this year, including two of his past four. However, none of those have come against top-tier sprinters and so the world road race will be a step up in class.

Women's racing has few pure sprinters in the mould of Kittel and Cavendish, so the pool of potential winners in the event of a bunch finish is smaller.

Women's 2016 sprinting stats

Rider Sprints contested Sprints won Win percentage Average position Last five sprint results
Kirsten Wild 8 6 75 1.2 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Marianne Vos 14 7 50 2.4 1, 3, 3, 1, 2
Jolien D'hoore 11 4 36 5 1, 12, 1, 3, 1
Chloe Hosking 19 6 32 8 20, 1, 12, 1, 11
Lizzie Deignan 6 0 0 16 26, 18, 18, 6, 14

D'hoore's credentials are strong, but the stats suggest the outstanding contender for victory is the Netherlands' Kirsten Wild, who has won six of eight sprints this year and all of her past five.

Compatriot Marianne Vos has the second-best record on the flat in 2016, returning seven wins from 14 sprints and finishing in the top three in all but one. However, with Wild so dominant, Vos may be asked to play a support role, while also being the team's Plan B should the race not end in a sprint.

D'hoore has been less prolific, winning four of her 11 sprints this year at a rate of 36 per cent, although she takes fine form to Doha following three wins in her past five sprints.

Kirsten Wild, Lucy Garner, Women's Tour de Yorkshire
Image: Kirsten Wild has been in peerless sprinting form this year

The other rider the Dutch should be worried about is Australia's Chloe Hosking, who has six sprint wins this year.

The data is less favourable for defending champion Lizzie Deignan, who claimed last year's world title in a sprint but has won none of her six sprints this year and has averaged only 16th place in bunch finishes, so she is therefore more likely to try to escape from the peloton.

*All sprinting statistics were taken from bunch finishes only. For example, Paris-Tours on October 9 ended with Gaviria escaping inside the final 1km and finishing just ahead of his rival sprinters, so it has not been counted.

Find out more about Hewlett Packard Enterprise data solutions.

Around Sky