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Royals flushed

Birmingham to win, but still go down says Le Tiss

Posted: 09th May 2008 10:51

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McLeish: Blue day?

People say Pompey's players will be keen to avoid injury, but with the quality in their side they could be a match for Fulham with a no-tackling game.

Matt Le Tissier
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Birmingham are in the toughest position of all going into the final day of the season.

Sat in 19th position, one point adrift of both Reading and Fulham, things look bleak but they have a home game against a team that aren't playing for too much - and that's exactly what Alex McLeish would have wanted.

His team have struggled badly away from home and capitulated on a number of occasions, not least in the derby game against Aston Villa which seems to have really dented their confidence.

So if Birmingham had an away game you'd say they were down, but in this scenario I can see them nicking three points and hoping other results go their way.

Any team that doesn't have a goalscorer hitting double figures is going to find themselves at the wrong end of the table and Birmingham haven't found that player.

I thought Mauro Zarate might be that man after scoring three goals in three games, but he's been back on the bench since James McFadden got fit again, which baffled me because I think you need to play your confident players at this stage of the season.

Blackburn showed against Manchester United recently that they are capable of a big performance, but it's debatable whether they'll dig in that deep away from home against a team fighting for their lives.

They'll have a go and I'm sure Roque Santa Cruz will want to add to his goal tally. Top forwards are inherently selfish and he'll just want to score, no matter who the opponents are.

But I feel Birmingham's efforts will overcome Blackburn's and I feel they have a very good chance of pinching a win in this game because they've got so much more to play for.

However, survival might be beyond them because they'll be relying on two other results to go in their favour.

Threat

In my opinion, Fulham need to go to Fratton Park and win because a draw is unlikely to keep them up.

Portsmouth may have the cup final on their minds, but Jermain Defoe won't and he could be a huge threat to Fulham's chances. Some of the others will be playing for their places at Wembley and there's no way a team of professionals will roll over and hand the three points to Roy Hodgson's team.

People say Pompey's players will be keen to avoid injury, but with the quality in their side they could be a match for Fulham with a no-tackling game. I think that result will be a draw and Fulham's future will depend on Reading and Birmingham failing to win.

Reading head to Pride Park and if they can't beat Derby then they'll deserve to go down. I've seen Derby on a number of occasions this season and their defending has been terrible - and that's putting things mildly.

However, Reading have been awful in front of goal in recent times. Their strikers haven't scored in two months and their last goal came from Andre Bikey, who isn't somebody you want to rely on to find the net.

The forwards have been unquestionably poor in the last few months and they must go to Pride Park and pull something out of the hat. I struggle to see where Reading's next goal will come from, but having seen Derby's defence last weekend they'll never have a better chance.

I think that will be an incredibly tense, tight games between two teams in poor form and I think Reading will nick it by a goal.

So by my calculations, Reading will be the ones to survive, but the afternoon will be full of drama and I expect a few late twists.