Cassel: Playing with poise

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Call it Intrigue Sunday. After the last couple of weeks of heavyweight clashes and momentous results (the return of Dallas and Denver, the eclipse of San Diego and Chicago), the NFL takes a slight breather this week.

That's not to say there aren't any big games. With just six weeks of the regular season left and only one team (Detroit) mathematically ruled out of the play-offs, there is still plenty at stake.

The visit of New York Jets to Tennessee and the Giants' trip to Arizona certainly provide plenty of meat for the Week 11 programme, but in neither case is a loss fatal to any of those protagonists.

Therefore, the focus here in the US is more on games which have something of a make-or-break nature; genuine intrigue, if you like. For eight teams in particular, Sunday sees confrontations which will likely decide if they have a playoff future - or if, like the woeful Lions, they need to start thinking about the latter half of 2009 rather than the opening 32 days of it.

(OK, I realise there are probably seven other teams already planning for next year after falling miserably short of pre-season expectations - step forward Cincinnati, Houston, Oakland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Seattle and St Louis - but work with me here!)

Start with Miami hosting New England (live on SS2 at 6pm). Prior to September's kick-off, even the most one-eyed Dolphins fan probably wouldn't have imagined they would go into this fixture level with the defending AFC champs (at least at the top of the table).

But, under the tutelage of Bill Parcells and the canny coaching of Tony Sparano, the new-look Fish have been arguably the surprise package of the season. They come into this game on the back of four successive wins and, while two of those were against the feeble Seahawks and Raiders, there is no shortage of confidence in south Florida.

(Stat of the week: Oakland have now gone 13 QUARTERS without an offensive touchdown in the wake of their 17-15 loss to Miami, when their lone TD came off a punt return. In that time they have run 164 plays on offence - 42 of 93 passing for 399 yards, and 71 rushes for 288 yards - without getting in the end zone. Just mind boggling.)

Force

The rebirth of motormouth Joey Porter as a genuine force this season (14 sacks to date) certainly gives the Dolphins more defensive punch and the addition of Chad Pennington at quarterback has removed the roller-coaster nature of their signal-calling.

Their wacky 'Wildcat' offence - where one of the running backs often lines up behind centre in a shotgun formation, with Pennington split out wide like a receiver - has carried them a long way in their six wins, but now comes the acid test of the Patriots.

In Week Three, New England were well and truly ambushed by this tactic, and Matt Cassel was making only his second start for the Pats. Now, Cassel is playing with the kind of poise normally seen only from New England quarterbacks called Brady and the element of surprise is long gone from the Wildcat's armoury (which isn't to say it has been de-clawed, just that Bill Belichick will be fully prepared for it this time).

The bottom line is that whoever comes out of this one in the 'L' column will have significant wounds to lick. The Pats would be on a two-game skid, which hasn't happened since Weeks Nine and 10 in 2006, and seriously hampered in divisional tie-breakers with the Jets and Dolphins; and Miami would suffer a reality check of ominous proportions with two other divisional re-matches to come.

Move on to Philadelphia at Baltimore (a 6pm option on SS2 interactive), and you have two more teams with a 'Must not lose' mentality after Week 10. For the Eagles, the fallout from their painful 13-13 result at Cincinnati is still landing on the head of coach Andy Reid, who is absurdly trying to take the 'blame' for Donovan McNabb and Co not knowing a game could end in a tie. Anything other than a win and Philly will be able to see their division rivals only with a telescope, in play-off terms.

Genuine

The Ravens took a huge hit to their not-inconsiderable defensive ego in that 30-10 trampling they took at the hands (actually, the feet of Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw) of the Giants, and they badly need to shake off that memory if they are to stay on Pittsburgh's coat tails.

Then it's the turn of Carolina at Atlanta (the 9pm game on SS2), where the Panthers will get their first 'real' opponent in three weeks (Oakland and Detroit simply don't count) and we'll see if their record is 8-2 or Fake-and-2. This marks the start of a six-game run against genuine contenders instead of the NFL's patsies, and a stumble now would prime John Fox's men for a major collapse, especially with the Falcons and Bucs on their heels.

The Falcons are also Miami's main rivals for Comeback Team of the Year and, behind rookie passer Matt Ryan, have been nobody's pushover at any stage. They are even more solid in their Georgia Dome home, and the winner of this little encounter can certainly start to imagine a January date or two.

Finally, Sunday's fab four line-up features Indianapolis' trip to reeling San Diego (the 1.30am game on SS2). At face value, this is a clash of teams going in opposite directions fast. The Chargers have lost three of four; their only win in that spell was a 20-19 squeaker over Kansas; and Philip Rivers has looked like a candidate for the Quarterback Challenged League (look up my Simon's Sports Mania blog for the full QBCL story).

The Colts, meanwhile, have ramped up their 'business as usual' demeanour with three successive wins and, after Sunday, will be into the 'soft' part of their schedule (any fixture list which still includes the likes of Cincinnati and Detroit is guaranteed to be softer than George Bush's current approval rating*).

However, San Diego still have four of their final six at home; they remain only two games behind erratic Denver in the AFC West; and they have beaten Indy in their last three meetings dating back to 2005. The Colts also can ill afford a fifth defeat of the season with New England, Baltimore and Miami all breathing down their neck for a playoff spot in what could easily be the most hotly-contested wild card battle in years.

It therefore adds a delicious element of anticipation to our TV-watching pleasure (and, yes, I do watch most games 'on the box' just like everyone else). Let the intrigue commence!

* Now at 18%, and still falling.