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Posted: 04th December 2008 13:42
Sky Sports' legendary boxing panel will be in place on Judgement Night as Oscar de la Hoya and Manny Pacquiao do battle.
It pits one of the greatest of the modern era against the best pound-for-pound boxer on the planet right now - and they are meeting in the middle at welterweight.
The bookies make De La Hoya the favourite, but Pacquiao has his backers. Talk of the Golden Boy being on the wane and Pacman's pace being too much cannot be overlooked - and when two huge names collide anything can happen.
As always, the team will be on hand on fight night but as ever have taken time out for the build-up to share their expertise and experience with us here on skysports.com...
Here, the jury of Glenn McCrory, Johnny Nelson, Nicky Piper and Adam Smith give their verdict on what could well turn out to be the fight of the year... and more!
Right, let's set the scene: a living legend against the pound-for-pound best are meeting in the middle at welterweight. Let's get the obvious question out of the way first: does size really matter?
ADAM SMITH: What is not in doubt is that Oscar De La Hoya and Manny Pacquiao are great great fighters. Both are multi-weight world champions: the Golden Boy from super-featherweight to middleweight; the Pacman from flyweight to lightweight. But therein also lies the problem. Is Pacquiao anywhere near big enough? On June 23rd 2001, Pacquiao won the world super-bantamweight tile by stopping Lehlohonolo Ledwaba, at 8stone 10lbs, while De La Hoya was beating Javier Castillejo for the world light-middleweight crown at 11stone on the same night. That's a 32lbs difference.
GLENN McCRORY: When Oscar De La Hoya made his professional debut 15 years ago he weighed 9st 7lbs. That's more than Manny Pacquiao weighed for his last fight. And that size difference is still the big problem. Watching Pacquiao running out in the Hollywood hills, he was dwarfed by Amir Khan, who is young lightweight. I know he says he walks around at about the welterweight mark, but Ricky Hatton walks around at 13stone - it doesn't mean he can fight at that weight!
JOHNNY NELSON: Yes, the big guy should beat the little guy, but Oscar de la Hoya really has to bully Manny Pacquiao to make that happen. And the one thing Pacquiao has in his favour is speed and bundles of energy. I have boxed plenty of guys that are bigger than me and the fight usually follows a pattern: the bigger guy will be at his strongest and most dangerous in the first half of the fight, but come the second half of the fight if the little guy is still there, still confident, he can win on points. He will also be able to see Oscar's punches coming a mile off.
NICKY PIPER: I have fought bigger guys before, too. I remember fighting Carl Thompson and giving away a stone. I walked into the ring at the York Hall expecting to see a 5ft 10in, fat light-heavyweight, but when I got to the ring Mickey Duff and Terry Lawless looked at me from the front row and shook their heads as if to say 'what have you done?'! I did hit Carl non-stop for the first two rounds but the punches just bounced off - and he stopped me in the third. Johnny's right, you do have an advantage in that you can see their punches coming. You're reflexes are used to quicker - if lighter - hitters and Pacquiao might just be able to roll a few in that respect. But Oscar is such a clever fighter, Manny won't be able to outbox him, even with his speed.
Freddie Roach is convinced he has seen a weakness in De La Hoya, but what does Pacquiao have to do? If you can give the small guy an edge, where would it be? What do we expect to see from the Filipino phenomenon?
MCCRORY: Pacquiao is also a southpaw and it has been said that Oscar struggles with the lefties and has not fought one for a while. But the Filipino is not exactly a tricky, slippery southpaw. Pernell Whittaker he ain't. But there is one thing that makes this less clear-cut than it should be. Pacquiao will make this a fight. It's what he does best, it's what he knows how to do. And there is one thing about Oscar that we do know: he is easier to hit, far less elusive than when he was younger and will present a solid target. Pacquiao does have a big heart and although the size difference might have some people scoffing, the one thing boxing does is try to make things as fair as possible. Have a look at the bookies' odds and they will be much closer than you might think.
PIPER: Manny does have the speed and is a southpaw, but he is not exactly slippery. He will not want to stand and trade, but his game is essentially coming forward, in straight lines - and that could play right into Oscar's hands. If Oscar can hit him, then there is only going to be one outcome. I can only assume Freddie Roach has been working on that method of attack because he says he has seen something and is convinced his man can win. Pacquiao doesn't need the money, he could fight anyone he wants and still get millions, but he has beaten legends like Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales and clearly wants to do it again.
NELSON: Pacquiao strikes me as a warrior and if he gets hit and hurt there will be times when he has to just survive. But he has to stick to his gameplan whatever happens. He has to get in an out, stay disciplined when it's not going his way and then in the latter stages he can think about attacking more. As the quicker guy he will see the punches coming a mile off. Of course you know if they land they are going to hurt like hell, but you do have the size and speed to get out of the way much quicker. He can't afford to get caught close in and let Oscar drop that weight on him; he has to get in, get his shots off and then get out - all night long.
SMITH: I interviewed Manny out in Hollywood for 20 minutes and he never once said he was going to win. So he's either quietly assured, or maybe he realises, deep down, that this is an enormous ask. Freddie Roach is extremely confident that Team Pacquiao will beat De La Hoya. Roach is a wise boxing man and he just thinks he has the right guy at the right time. Mind you that's what Buddy McGirt told me about Paulie Malignaggi! Freddie believes that Pacquiao's speed will undo him, that he might be small but he is still a savage force. Roach and promoter Bob Arum are convinced that Pacquiao will shock the world, and that De La Hoya has made an enormous mistake. Freddie's brilliant, but it must be noted that in big fights recently he came off the loser when De La Hoya went in with Floyd Mayweather and with Bernard Hopkins against Joe Calzaghe.
Pacquiao might be small, but he is more active and he is six years younger than Oscar De La Hoya. And Oscar has lost three of his last six. Is there a danger the Golden Boy could finally lose his shine?
NELSON: Oscar is no spring chicken anymore and the one thing we have seen - like against Steve Forbes last time out - is that he is easier to hit these days. He is older and slower and by no means at his best, but as I say, if he has done his maths right, he should not get hurt. But you know what? I think the key to this fight is pace. Pacquiao has it, but does De La Hoya?
PIPER: He might be getting on, but he is an amazing fighter. He still seems able to get himself up for these big fights and although he is never what you'd call spectacular, he is supremely confident, has a great attitude and what should worry Pacquiao here, is that he still has a great jab. Manny does have the speed and is a southpaw, but he is not exactly slippery. He will not want to stand and trade, but his game is essentially coming forward, in straight lines - and that could play right into Oscar's hands. If Oscar can hit him cleanly - and I am sure he can - then there is only going to be one outcome.
MCCRORY: I am just not quite sure just how good Oscar is any more. He is at the tail-end of his career, he is a sensible enough man to know that Father Time catches up with us all at some stage and after so many fights, so long at the top, I am not sure how much fire there is left in the Golden Boy's belly. Fighters, no matter how good they are, do not go on forever. Pacquiao certainly has heart, bags of desire and as the fight approaches, I am starting to think that Oscar De La Hoya might just have set himself up for a huge fall here. I am wondering if, come Sunday morning, he is going to look pretty stupid.
SMITH: I know Oscar well, and I know he would never cut corners in preparation. Ever. It's not in his character. Whether he still has enough at the elite level is another matter entirely. He must continue to prove his skills haven't eroded, but he looked in outstanding shape in camp. He told me he was already on weight, and that was at the beginning of November. He seems refreshed under the excellent Mexican trainer Nacho Beristain. He's been sparring with the big-punching southpaw Edwin Valero and Golden Boy's hot hope Victor Ortiz. Oscar says the hunger is still burning, and he really wants to fight Ricky Hatton in Britain next year.
So it's not as clear-cut as it might appear. If there was one thing, one aspect, that is going to separate these two greats, give one of them a chance, swing it their way, or ultimately cost them, what will it be?
PIPER: Manny does have the speed and is a southpaw, but he is not exactly slippery. He will not want to stand and trade, but his game is essentially coming forward, in straight lines - and that could play right into Oscar's hands. If Oscar can hit him, then there is only going to be one outcome. He will not stop De La Hoya though and his only chance is to take him all the way. Oscar has tired badly against the likes of Felix Trinidad and Floyd Mayweather in the last few years, but even then, this time he will have done all the proper training, put in the hard work and I can't see that happening again.
MCCRORY: There is one thing that makes this less clear-cut than it should be: Pacquiao will make this a fight. It's what he does best, it's what he knows how to do. And there is one thing about Oscar that we do know: he is easier to hit, far less elusive than when he was younger and will present the Pacman with a solid target. Pacquiao does have a big heart and although the size difference might have some people scoffing, the one thing boxing does is try to make things as fair as possible. Have a look at the bookies' odds and they will be much closer than you might think.
NELSON: Oscar is older and slower and by no means at his best, but as I say, if he has done his maths right, he should not get hurt. In fact it shouldn't even be an issue, but you know what? I think the key to this fight is pace. Pacquiao has it, but does De La Hoya? If it comes to strength and Oscar can bully him, manhandles him and lean on him, then that is when the massive size difference will come into play.
SMITH: Will De La Hoya be just too big? Or is Pacquiao fast and fit enough to stay with him? The Filipino southpaw must use his younger legs and ring smart to get in and out quickly. But I thought he was lucky to get a draw and a win over Juan Manuel Marquez. The tip-top Mexican is also trained by Beristain and has a similar sort of style to De La Hoya's. There are other key questions: Will Pacquiao be able to take De La Hoya's power - especially from the left hook? Can Pacquiao hurt De La Hoya to the body? Will he even get that opportunity? Pacquiao's not that defensively cute, and he's been stopped twice, albeit a long time ago. He's aggressive, and a speedy, strong southpaw, but the weight worries me.
PIPER: As we keep saying, a good biggun always beats a good littl'un and I have to say I fancy Oscar De La to actually stop Manny Pacquiao. You do have an advantage though in that you can see their punches coming. You're reflexes are used to quicker - if lighter - hitters and Pacquiao might just be able to roll a few in that respect. But Oscar is such a clever fighter, Manny won't be able to outbox him so he has to walk forward and I think that means a KO for the Golden Boy in round seven or eight.
OK, we've looked at everything. Now it's prediction time - Golden Boy or Pacman? It's your call...
SMITH: Some say De La Hoya's on a hiding to nothing. I don't agree. Expect Oscar to use his superb jab and physical size to break Pacquiao down. Then bring on the Hatton, who is the real winner in this. He'll be ringside in Vegas. Imagine The Golden Boy against The Hitman in one of the biggest events in British fight history, on our shores! De La Hoya's been planning this and he usually gets what he wants. Just a fabulous, but tiny, Filipino whirlwind to deal with first - and my prediction is Oscar will. Emphatically.
PIPER: I agree. I have to say I fancy Oscar De La to actually stop Manny Pacquiao. He might be getting on, but he is an amazing fighter. He still seems able to get himself up for these big fights and although he is never what you'd call spectacular, he is supremely confident, has a great attitude and what should worry Pacquiao here, he still has a great jab. Oscar is such a clever fighter, Manny won't be able to outbox him so he has to walk forward and I think that means a KO for the Golden Boy in round seven or eight.
NELSON: If De La Hoya turns this into a wrestling match, he wins all night long- and like the guys say, he does it early. If it doesn't go the distance and is over in the first half, then it will be De La Hoya winning by a knockout. But if it goes the distance - and don't forget Oscar fades badly in the latter stages of fights - then there is no reason why Manny Pacquiao can't sneak it on points. Logic dictates you lean towards the bigger guy, but stranger things have happened...
MCCRORY: When two amazing fighters come together all bets tend to go out of the window, but the bookies rarely get it wrong - and they have got it fairly close. Still, if Pacquiao pulls this off it will be like the 300 Spartans defeating the entire Greek army, an almighty shock. And you know what? It can happen. Maybe it's because I always go for the underdog, maybe it's because I do think Oscar is on the way down, or maybe it's just because sometimes in this sport, guys are presented with the most unlikely of chances and they snatch it with both hands. If it goes to points, then there's no reason Pacquiao can't sneak it. Don't forget, for all his power and influence in the world of boxing, we've seen Oscar on the end of some rough decisions down the years. Particularly in Vegas.
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