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Ballack - Germany Favourites
Germany has been installed as favourites to win UEFA EURO 2008 according to the Castrol Performance Index, a new tool being used to objectively analyse team and player performance at this summer's European Championships.
Although Spain is the strongest team going into the tournament, based on international teams' performances and results since 2000, their Group draw means the team are second favourites behind the Germans, who have a 17% chance of glory.
The Castrol Performance Index has used the past performances to work out each team's attack and defence ratings, weighting recent results to count for more. Then, by simulating the tournament more than 100,000 times, it has calculated each team's chances of progression at UEFA EURO 2008 and then winning it.
Percentage Chance of Progression*
| Team | Quarter Final | Semi Final | Final | Win EURO 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 83% | 51% | 32% | 17% |
| Spain | 79% | 42% | 24% | 14% |
| Netherlands | 55% | 33% | 18% | 10% |
| Czech Republic | 63% | 36% | 20% | 10% |
| France | 54% | 32% | 17% | 10% |
| Romania | 49% | 27% | 14% | 7% |
| Italy | 42% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| Switzerland | 51% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
| Portugal | 51% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| Croatia | 55% | 26% | 11% | 5% |
| Sweden | 45% | 17% | 7% | 3% |
| Greece | 43% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
| Turkey | 34% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| Poland | 37% | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| Russia | 33% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| Austria | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
*Each team's percentage chance of progression based upon Castrol's Performance Index
"Castrol's belief is that the more you know about your performance, the more you can learn from it," explained Rob Stroud, Marketing Manager at Castrol. "At UEFA EURO 2008 the Castrol Performance Index will use football data to provide fans with objective analysis on their teams' and players' performances."
"These results show that while Germany has a great opportunity to win its first European Championships since 1996, there are a number of teams capable of winning it."
Castrol Performance Index
Castrol, who are the tournament's 'official sponsor of statistics', will also be analysing the performances of individual players at the tournament through the Castrol Performance Index (CPI).
The CPI will give a value to every action a player makes during a game based on how successful it has been in helping to either score or prevent a goal being scored. Based on the data available during the UEFA EURO 2008TM qualifiers, Germany's best performing player was striker Lukas Podolski.
The Castrol Performance Index is hosted online at www.castrolindex.com, and will be updated live during the tournament with expert opinions from Castrol's select group of ambassadors, which includes Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, FC Bayern Munich's Bundesliga-winning manager Ottmar Hitzfeld, legendary Spanish striker Emilio Butragueno and former international referee Pierluigi Collina.
