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Premier Predictor: Manchester United and Manchester City to miss out on Champions League?

Jose Mourinho/Pep Guardiola Manchester Derby image 16/08/2016
Image: Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola could both miss out on Champions League qualification this season

Manchester United and Manchester City are on course to miss out on Champions League qualification, according to the Sky Sports Premier Predictor.

United are now predicted to finish higher than their 'noisy neighbours' for the first time this season, but still only have a 44 per cent chance of reaching the top four.

City now have just a one in three chance of Champions League football next season after being thrashed by Everton - while both clubs have little chance of winning the title, as Pep Guardiola conceded at the weekend.

United have just a two per cent chance of taking the crown, according to the Sky Sports Premier Predictor, while City are given just a one per cent probability of claiming a third Premier League title.

The Premier Predictor works by allocating ranking points based on teams' performances - taking into account the difficulty of the opposition, home advantage and margin of victory.

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 14: Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur celebrates scoring his sides fourth goal during the Premier League match between Tottenham Ho
Image: The Premier Predictor says Tottenham are favourites to win at Man City on Saturday

Ahead of this weekend's games, Tottenham are now favourites to beat Manchester City at the Etihad, but United are expected to maintain their strong recent form against Stoke.

Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool are expected to win comfortably against Hull, Burnley and Swansea, with home victories also most likely for Bournemouth, Middlesbrough, Southampton and West Brom.

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For full predictions for the weekend and the season, see below…

Sky Sports Premier Predictor - % chance of Premier League finishing position

Team Winner Top 4 Relegated Pts in simulated season PP ranking points Change this week
Chelsea 66% 98% <1% 82 801 35
Tottenham 16% 86% <1% 76 813 25
Arsenal 10% 75% <1% 74 778 23
Liverpool 4% 60% <1% 71 736 5
Man Utd 2% 44% <1% 69 660 -5
Man City 1% 32% <1% 68 648 -34
Everton <1% 5% <1% 59 581 34
West Brom <1% <1% <1% 51 472 -25
Burnley <1% <1% <1% 50 415 8
West Ham <1% <1% 1% 49 443 19
Stoke <1% <1% 1% 48 432 19
Leicester <1% <1% 5% 45 470 -35
Southampton <1% <1% 6% 45 470 -8
Bournemouth <1% <1% 8% 44 384 -16
Watford <1% <1% 12% 42 354 -2
Middlesbrough <1% <1% 22% 40 418 2
Sunderland <1% <1% 56% 36 322 -19
Crystal Palace <1% <1% 62% 35 361 -19
Hull <1% <1% 62% 35 299 16
Swansea <1% <1% 64% 35 305 -23

Sky Sports Premier Predictor - weekend predictions

Home team win Draw Away team win
Bournemouth 46% 29% Watford 24%
Arsenal 82% 11% Burnley 7%
Chelsea 89% 6% Hull 5%
Palace 24% 27% Everton 49%
Liverpool 86% 8% Swansea 6%
Man City 28% 28% Tottenham 44%
Middlesbrough 40% 30% West Ham 29%
Southampton 43% 30% Leicester 27%
Stoke 24% 26% Man Utd 50%
West Brom 61% 24% Sunderland 15%

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