Matty Briggs says Newcastle are simply too big a price to be ignored in this weekend's Numbers Game.
Last Updated: 30/03/12 4:10pm
The Numbers Game enjoyed a fine week as the Value Bet and the Banker both came good last weekend. Matty Briggs fancied Crewe (8/5) to win at Hereford and they did exactly that to leave the Value Bet on £8.16 to a level £1 stake, while both Nottingham Forest and Brighton both scored to land the Banker at 5/6. Wycombe's Stuart Beavon (7/4) scored again in our Hot-Shots, while Chesterfield (2/1) won the Johnstone's Paint Trophy and was tipped up in our Famous Last Words and Norwich (8/11) triumphed to give us a Treatment Room winner too. This week we're back and taking on Liverpool at St James' Park.
Newcastle's front three of Hatem Ben Arfa, Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse destroyed West Brom last weekend and they should prove a real handful for Jamie Carragher and co at the back for Liverpool. The Magpies have won five of their last seven home games - including a 3-0 drubbing of Manchester United - and they simply look the wrong price at home to Kenny Dalglish's struggling side, who have lost five of their last six away from home in the Premier League.
Bristol City have been supported heavily to see off Derby. They are now 23/20 from 11/8.
Also in the Championship Ipswich have been hugely popular and are now 4/7 to beat struggling Barnsley after opening up at 4/6.
Arsenal (4/7) won last seven Prem games and travel to QPR (9/2).
Man Utd (4/11) won last six Prem games and travel to Blackburn (15/2) (Mon).
Southampton (7/5) won last four Champ games and travel to Blackpool (7/4).
West Ham (6/5) unbeaten in 11 Champ games and host Reading (23/10).
Huddersfield (13/10) gone eight League One games unbeaten and travel to Carlisle (2/1).
Stevenage (4/6) gone eight games unbeaten and host Wycombe (7/2).
Sheff Weds (1/2) gone seven games unbeaten and host PNE (6/1).
Scunthorpe (8/5) gone seven games unbeaten and travel to Chesterfield (13/8).
Tranmere (11/8) gone six games unbeaten and travel to Bury (19/10).
Crewe (11/10) won last four League Two games and host Northampton (12/5).
Crawley (8/11) won last four in League Two games and travel to Burton (15/4).
Wolves (5/4) lost last four Prem games and host Bolton (2/1).
Fulham (4/6) have lost last three Prem games and host Norwich (4/1).
Hull (8/11) lost last three Champ games and host Coventry (9/2).
Exeter (19/10) lost last five League One games and host Colchester (11/8).
Bury (19/10) gone 13 League One games without a win and host Tranmere (11/8).
Macclesfield (4/1) gone 16 league games without a win and travel to Gillingham (4/6).
Hereford (7/2) lost last three League Two games and travel to Rotherham (8/11).
Sky Bet will be taking on Chelsea this weekend against Aston Villa at Villa Park. "The Blues have not been in great form despite an upturn in results since Roberto Di Matteo took over the reins. Sides who have played away in the Champions League often suffer a hangover and 4/5 looks plenty short enough."
Sky Bet also say: "One we would avoid on the weekend coupon would be Charlton at 4/9. Orient beat the Addicks earlier in the season and will be buoyed by an impressive midweek win over Oldham."
Chelsea (4/5) won one of their last 12 Premier League visits to Aston Villa (7/2).
Fulham (4/6) have won seven of last nine v Norwich (4/1) in all competitions.
Bolton (2/1) have won seven of last 10 meetings v Wolves (5/4).
Liverpool (11/8) have won six of last seven Prem games v Newcastle (15/8).
Man City (1/5) won last seven home games v Sunderland (14/1).
C Palace (6/4) only won one of last seven at home to N Forest (9/5).
Oldham (100/30) won four of last five trips to Notts County (5/6).
Both Blackpool and Southampton have netted in 85 per cent of their Championship games this season, while the hosts' last eight games at Bloomfield Road have seen both teams score.
Everton's Nikica Jelavic has two in two and is 5/4 to score v WBA.
Newcastle's Papiss Cisse has five in six and is 6/4 to score v Liverpool.
Brentford's Clayton Donaldson has three in two and is 5/2 to score v MK Dons.
Crawley's Gary Alexander has five in five and is 11/8 to score v Burton.
Doncaster are set to be without defensive duo Shelton Martis and Pascal Chimbonda when they welcome Birmingham to the Keepmoat. Skipper Brian Stock, Martin Woods and Tommy Spurr will all miss out again.
Brentford to beat MK Dons at 7/2.
Dons' right-back James Tavernier (knee) and fellow defender Gary MacKenzie (neck) are out. Centre-half Mathias Kouo-Doumbe is also sidelined along with midfielder Luke Chadwick and striker Dean Bowditch is also nursing a groin injury.
Derby to beat Bristol City at 23/10.
Loan defender Stephen McManus has been recalled by Middlesbrough and Bristol City will also be without the suspended pair of Liam Fontaine and Ryan McGivern. Lewin Nyatanga is missing and James Wilson is out for the season along with Marvin Elliott (Achilles) and striker David Clarkson (ankle).
FAMOUS LAST WORDS
Accrington to beat AFC Wimbledon at 11/10.
After the midweek 2-0 defeat to Oxford, Accrington boss Paul Cook said: "I was really pleased with the performance - it's always an indication of how well you have played when the crowd applaud you off at the end. The crowd's reaction to a performance is always important and sometimes you don't have to win a game to earn their applause and this was one of those occasions. We didn't make the most of our chances on the night and that is an area of our game we have to improve - but I cannot criticise the lads for that performance, I thought we were outstanding. Our forward players were a threat all night and defensively we had some really good performances. From our perspective there were some really pleasing aspects to our play."
Speaking after last weekend's goalless draw with Scunthorpe, Keith Curle said: "I thought we totally dominated the game. We had the chances, but if we are going to be successful, then we have got to show that killer touch in front of goal. That was the only thing that was missing. But I was delighted with our performance."
You can follow Matty on Twitter at @mattpbriggs.