Thursday 8 October 2015 15:22, UK
Charlie Nicholas insists Scotland must score first against Poland at Hampden Park if they are to stand a chance of winning on Thursday night.
Gordon Strachan's side can finish third and reach the play-offs if Republic of Ireland lose against Germany and then Poland in their final two games, as long as Scotland gain at least four points against Poland and Gibraltar.
A loss would spell the end of their Group D chances, with Ireland four points ahead in third, and while Nicholas says the first goal is pivotal, he admits his belief is low.
He told Sky Sports: "This is a must-not-lose situation and even that might not be enough if Ireland produce a positive result against Germany.
"Sadly I don't think we have enough to hurt Poland. They are physically stronger, technically better, but we've got a team spirit and a unit, and they simply must score the first goal.
"I'm a realist and I want Scotland to get a result and I want them to qualify but I don't feel it's the right time and that we have the right players.
"There are things that are always true about us; we get to this stage and we always disappoint. The last two games have proved that.
"As soon as the pressure comes on the team and players to get points, and the balance right to get the performances, they don't. They don't know how to do it."
Scotland came close to qualifying for World Cup 2006 and both European Championships in 2008 and 2012, but ultimately fell short towards the end of the campaign.
Nicholas believes the pressure has got to the players in recent campaigns, and that this may be another task too far.
"It's taken us a long time to get to these type of levels and they don't quite have the knowledge how to get there.
"That's a burden that has been evident in just about the last five or six tournament qualifications. They've always had another chance but just don't know how to get there."
