Tuesday 21 February 2017 23:09, UK
Back in August, Ian Holloway's Sky Bet EFL Championship predictions sprung up one outstanding, if controversial, topic of discussion.
"They're lucky I've put them this high," said Holloway, predicting Aston Villa would finish 16th following their relegation from the Premier League.
"They could easily get relegated again"… "It's a job to carry that expectation. Last season Villa's players felt the weight of the shirt, but not the importance of it."
Villa's chairman Dr Tony Xia took exception to Holloway's tip with some choice words of his own, but with just 14 games of the season remaining, the now-QPR boss was spot on.
Steve Bruce took over from Roberto Di Matteo in October with the club in 19th, averaging 0.9 points per game. They've moved up two places since, averaging 1.2 points having spent over £20m on six first-team players in January.
Their latest disappointment, a 2-0 defeat at Newcastle on Monday, was their fifth loss in a row, their eighth in nine games.
Progress? Clearly not.
There is a mood at the club so hard to shift and now so familiar that new lows are met more by a shrug of the shoulders than any form of rage.
It is that dreaded cycle of expectation, disappointment and eventually indifference that creates a poison at a football club, and Villa are suffering.
It's same old, same old at the club, and this author is getting déjà vu. How has it happened, and what is next for Villa?
Carrying the weight
Expectation is deeply-seated in the furniture at Villa Park. It's in every nook and cranny of the Holte End, and despite years of failure, it's in every fan's head.
"I've been waiting 20 years to be at a club of this size"
It's born from those who followed the champions of England and Europe in 1981 and 1982, down to those younger supporters who experienced some excitement under Martin O'Neill under a decade ago. It's born from a history barely anybody remembers, an impressive stadium steeped in tradition, and 28 straight years in the top flight.
It's unavoidable, inherent, and not something every player can handle.
"I've been waiting 20 years to be at a club of this size so I will give it everything I can," said Bruce on his arrival. Despite the results, there aren't too many calling for Bruce's head, and little doubt he can handle the expectation, but what about the make-up of the new signings?
Villa's transfer policy since Dr Xia arrived has not been anything unusual; signing Championship-standard players when dropping down from the top flight is nothing new. None have played regularly for a club of Villa's stature, but they signed club captains in Mile Jedinak, Conor Hourihane, Ross McCormack, Tommy Elphick and Henri Lansbury.
Yet Villa are somehow still lacking in real leaders; when going behind they've won only once since April 2015, and in the first 10 fixtures of the season lost nine points in the last five minutes of games.
Villa's stature means they can attract their Championship rivals' best players, and all to a man have referenced the "size of the club, the history, the training facilities and magnificent ground" in their first interviews.
It seems that excitement quickly turns to trepidation when carrying the weight of the shirt, but it would have been unreasonable to expect a whole new squad of players to show instant balance.
Given time, Villa's new-look side should gel, but will Bruce get the time to steer the ship?
Costly squad, costly errors
One thing fans can't complain about is the money Dr Xia has invested in the squad. A calculated throw or more of a chuck?
Villa have a whole new team. Of Monday's starting XI, only Alan Hutton was at the club last season. Admittedly, the team needed an overhaul given their woeful last term in the Premier League, but the costly new squad has been splattered with costly individual errors.
Italian goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini was loaned to Atalanta in January following some questionable performances earlier in the season, while Bruce's reputation for organisation at set pieces has been tarnished. The two goals conceded at St James' Park on Monday should carry a health warning for any Villa fans yet to view them.
But Bruce is not shying away. The 56-year-old isn't naïve, and knows that the only way to make the current situation worse is to add excuses and pretend everything is rosy.
He'll continue to school his players on the training ground, but Villa must show more control on the pitch. After all, Villa's plush Tamworth training base is a far cry from having 35,000 expectant eyes on you.
Away discomforts
While Villa have picked up vital wins at home, they've scraped to only two victories on the road.
They have packed out their away allocations for the majority of their travels, but on the pitch they are routinely overrun and fail to match the energy of their opponents.
Home teams still see Villa as a coup, and in their only two away wins this season, Bruce's side have had less possession before winning ugly.
Lack of firepower hasn't helped either. Villa have scored eight goals in their 17 away games, the only Championship side not to hit double-figures.
Jonathan Kodjia is comfortably top scorer with 11 goals, while the next three best in Gestede (four), McCormack (three) and Jordan Ayew (three) all left the club in January.
Identity lacking
The first half against Newcastle may have ended in Villa handing the hosts a goal, but for 40 minutes Bruce's side showed rare signs of identity.
That identity was to frustrate Newcastle, a team with far more confidence and quality, and it worked until Yoan Gouffran's soft opener from their first shot on goal. Villa's heads dropped, and defeat was imminent.
Before February, Villa hadn't lost at home all season, but don't let that fool you. Bar a couple of spurts, they rarely entertained, never looked truly assured, and style has been lacking.
Bruce has gone from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 to 3-5-2 and back to 4-2-3-1, and will most likely reverse or find a new set-up for the remainder of the season. He doesn't know his best XI, and has had to content with absences too.
The injury to Scott Hogan won't help form that identity. The striker is feared out for a lengthy period with just Kodjia and Gabriel Agbonlahor for first-team back-up after the club sold Gestede and sent the troublesome McCormack to Nottingham Forest in January.
Nothing has worked, but if Villa are to avoid an unprecedented double relegation, they need a personality to stick.
