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Sky Sports Championship Predictor: Brighton v Newcastle, title decider?

Tomer Hemed celebrates after scoring Brighton's first goal from the penalty spot

By Harry Carr

Tuesday 28 February 2017 12:26, UK

The tightest title race? Sky Sports' Championship Predictor suggests Brighton versus Newcastle is as close as they come.

It's top against second when Brighton host Newcastle in the Championship clash live on Sky Sports on Tuesday night and the words 'title decider' will be on everyone's lips.

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With only a point between the two teams, the winner will have the edge with a dozen games to go and while nothing will be finalised this week, the odds will swing in their favour.

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Sky Sports' Championship Predictor - which uses an algorithm to rank results, previous performances and the difficulty of upcoming fixtures - could hardly have the pair closer.

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Ahead of the game, Brighton are rated as having a 50 per cent chance of being crowned champions, while Newcastle are not far behind with a 49 per cent chance.

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The missing one per cent? That's the slim chance of Huddersfield doing it - they are on Sky against Newcastle on Saturday so could get within three of the lead if results go their way.

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Huddersfield's prospect of a top-two finish and automatic promotion is somewhat better, an eight per cent chance of upsetting the Brighton-Newcastle duopoly.

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Meanwhile, Leeds United are rated as the only other team with a better than one per cent chance of getting to the Premier League without requiring the play-offs.

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We take a look at some of their best goals by Brighton and Newcastle this season

As for the actual game at The Amex on Tuesday, the Championship Predictor just favours the home side to get the three points.

They are a 40 per cent chance with Newcastle having a 32 per cent chance of getting an away win. The draw is a 28 per cent chance.

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Here's the full rundown of the Sky Sports' Championship Predictor…

Sky Sports Championship Predictor - % chance of finishing position

Team Winner Top 2 Top 6 Relegation Predicted pts
Brighton 50% 95% >99% <1% 94
Newcastle 49% 93% >99% <1% 94
Huddersfield 1% 8% 98% <1% 84
Leeds <1% 3% 89% <1% 80
Reading <1% <1% 76% <1% 77
Sheff Wed <1% <1% 54% <1% 74
Preston <1% <1% 30% <1% 71
Norwich <1% <1% 23% <1% 70
Fulham <1% <1% 18% <1% 70
Derby <1% <1% 6% <1% 67
Barnsley <1% <1% 4% <1% 67
Cardiff <1% <1% 1% <1% 65
Brentford <1% <1% <1% <1% 61
Ipswich <1% <1% <1% <1% 58
Birmingham <1% <1% <1% 1% 58
QPR <1% <1% <1% 2% 57
Aston Villa <1% <1% <1% 2% 55
Wolves <1% <1% <1% 4% 55
Nott'm Forest <1% <1% <1% 18% 51
Burton Albion <1% <1% <1% 33% 49
Bristol City <1% <1% <1% 34% 49
Blackburn <1% <1% <1% 49% 47
Wigan <1% <1% <1% 57% 46
Rotherham <1% <1% <1% >99% 29

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