Tanihara - this year's Mr Lu?
Saturday 12th July
1100: The last time the Open was held at Birkdale, in 1998, I placed my bets just 24 hours before the start. This year I've been been having ante-post wagers for the last few months.
There doesn't seem to be much middle ground when putting down your money early doors. You either look incredibly stupid or incredibly clever and, looking at my portfolio, I'm definitely leaning towards the former.
The height of my rashness is the 100/1 I took about Darren Clarke. A good price about such a proven links player who's already won this year. The drawback is that he won't actually be playing after failing to qualify.
Annoyingly, I've had this bet with totesport who (boo, hiss) have a policy of not returning stakes on ante-post non-runners.
The other bet I wish I could take back is the 100/1 about Stuart Appleby.
Again, you could say it's a decent price as he's now 80/1. But I now see it as dead money.
I placed it when he was the halfway leader of the US Open where I'd also backed him at 100/1.
The Aussie was very much in my good books back then - I'd planned a family holiday to the West Coast of America with the profits, taking in Torrey Pines as a tribute to his magnificence - but he putted like an absolute clown in round three and ended up tied 36th.
After witnessing him fall to pieces, I just can't see Appleby standing up to the pressure at Birkdale so I've written that money off too.
I did a nice bit of trading on Betfair on Soren Hansen, backing him at 110 and laying it off at 90 for a nice free bet (I'll win about £500 if he wins and lose absolutely nothing if he doesn't).
But the Dane has just missed the cut at Loch Lomond so again confidence has dipped.
On the plus side, I laid into Sergio Garcia at 14s when he was going well in the European Open in Kent last week so am happy to have that in the bag given that he's now a best price of 10/1.
Others I've nibbled at are American Brandt Snedeker and Germany's Alex Cejka but as for who I'll end up tipping in my betting preview on Monday I'm still to decide.
I have a not-so-shortlist of about 12 but keep adding to it as this feeling of a fluke Ben Curtis/Todd Hamilton-type winner keeps gnawing away at me.
Last night I spent a good 45 minutes studying the form of the seven Japanese entrants on the basis that Mr Lu nearly won at Birkdale in 1971.
As well as being tenuous it's arguably racist as Lu Liang-huan was from Taiwan, not Japan.
In my defence, there isn't anyone playing from Tawian this year so I'm trying to assess the chances of those who play their golf on the Asian or Japanese Tours.
Tonight my search for the next Mr Lu continues with the South Korean, Philippines, Malyasian, Singapore and Thai entrants.
When I throw my money down the toilet on a list of outsiders who miss the cut at least I can say I left no stone unturned.
Comments (4)
David Kelly says...
There does often seem to be a Japanese player in contention at the Open alright so maybe Ryuji Imada this year, already a US Tour winner and also high up the scrambling stats on that Tour, useful tool for the Open.
Posted 10:02 16th July 2008
Mark Bancroft says...
Ian Poulter has no chance this week. I may be proved wrong, but having seen his practise routines this week, he seems to be sourounded by too many people / coaches / techniques - I really hope he can do well - but he needs to get back to basics and concentrate on what he is good at - his flamborant clothes / ipods need to go..... play golf - that's it... and that comes from a lot of low handicap people i know.
Posted 20:12 15th July 2008
Mark Bancroft says...
I can't beleive Dave that you haven't included KJ choi in any of your bets... he's awesome, hits the ball low and has the stature and qaulity to do well this week. Someone who can shape the ball and hit it low will win this week...? thoughts?
Posted 20:07 15th July 2008
Jolly Potter says...
Dave, i am surprised you have written off Appleby - if you check the records - it was the Birkdale Open where his wife tragically died afterwards - admitted he missed the cut but do you think that might be the motivation he needs to bring out the best in him. You could say that Kaymer and Dougherty are in similar positions but Appleby has at least been in a play-off for the OPEN and has the game to win
Posted 18:23 15th July 2008