Sky Sports.com - Masters 2008

Goosen: Augusta specialist

Tiger Woods will probably be slipping his arms inside the Masters Green Jacket for a fifth time on Sunday.

But will I be backing him at 5/4? No.

Firstly, I already have a vested interest in Woods winning this week having backed him to win the Grand Slam.

However, for those not involved in such a bet, quite simply there are better 5/4 shots to be had at Augusta this year, more of which later.

The worry for punters piling into Woods is the creeping feeling that the Masters is not the splendid attraction of old, a course which played into Tiger's hands.

Last year, in cold, windy conditions, there was an eerie silence for the first three rounds as the usual burst of birdies and eagles left the galleries with little to cheer.

The average score ballooned to 75.88, Zach Johnson's winning total of 289 was the highest in Masters history and Woods failed to break par 72 once.

The chilly weather clearly played a part but Augusta 2007 was a very different beast to the one which Tiger had tamed 10 years earlier when shooting 18-under.

First-shot course

Woods had sussed that out in the practice rounds, telling reporters: "They have made this golf course not just a second-shot golf course but a first-shot course as well." In other words, the days of just blasting it as far as you could off the tee and taking it from there were gone.

Steve Stricker, the first player called into the press tent this week, adds a further twist by saying: "I'm becoming to believe that this is more like a US Open course every year."

Given that the US Open is the Major which Tiger has won least (twice), it figures that he's more vulnerable at Augusta now than he was in the past and let's remember that he's won this tournament just once in the last five years.

Having said all that, only Johnson's heroics beat him into second place 12 months ago and his ability to puts wins in the bank is astonishing.

In all likelihood the only thing that will stop him is a cold putter but, as we saw at Doral, it can happen.

So, if not Tiger, where is our money going?

The days of European dominance at Augusta inspire dewy-eyed wistfulness in golf fans of a certain age but there are signs that the current generation can end the current American dominance.

Englishmen are at the forefront of that revival and 12 months ago Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Paul Casey all made the top 10.

Most will recall Rose's fantastic fightback from seven over to two over, putting him just one shot off the lead teeing off on 17, but it's worth jogging our memories and recalling that Donald was just two off the pace on Sunday before racking up a triple bogey on the ninth after consecutive chips arrived back at his feet.

Both men appear to have taken to Augusta like ducks to water.

Rose, making his debut, went into the 2004 event without a top 20 to his name that season but, inspired by his surroundings, shocked many a pundit by leading until the halfway point.

Challenger

Although he fell away, 2007 proved that Rose has what it takes to be a regular challenger here, specifically an ability to hit the ball both ways, hit high irons which land softly and, crucially, a liking for ultra-fast greens.

Add in the ability to grind, which proved so invaluable last year, and a temperament suited to the biggest events (he made the top 12 in all four Majors last year) and Rose has an awful lot going for him.

Just like last year, he's lightly raced going into the year's first major and although he hasn't set the world alight in the five events he's played, Rose has still played some solid golf with a trio of top 15s on the Florida Swing.

"I feel like I am swinging the club really well and my coach, Nick (Bradley), has said it's the best it's ever looked," said Rose after closing with a 68 at Doral on his last start so confidence is high.

Rose also outscored Ian Poulter and Trevor Immelman in a recent scouting trip to Augusta so looks a fine each-way bet at 40s.

Donald appears to be out of favour with punters and presenters alike - Ewan Murray said recently he lacked spark - but I think the 50/1 about him this week looks inflated.

Like Rose, Donald hit the ground running at Augusta and played some brilliant golf to finish third on debut in 2005.

Last year's top 10 confirmed he has the game to thrive here even though many are still put off by his short hitting.

Johnson's win should certainly have allayed some of those fears as should the victory for Mike Weir in 2003.

Johnson virtually reinvented the wheel by laying up on every par five although Weir never actually hit a par five green in two when he won.

There is more than one way to skin a cat and shortish hitters with great wedge games can still flourish.

Donald, who sits above both those former Masters champs in the current driving distance stats, compensates for his lack of length with clever course management and an excellent short game.

Stats

Looking at his US Tour stats, Donald is sixth in putting, fifth in scrambling and third in approaches from 75-100 yards.

Most interesting is that he's second in scoring average so knows how to get the ball into the hole and also second in 3-putt avoidance - a key factor at Augusta. (Rose, incidentally, is fifth in scoring average, first in sand saves and third in scrambling).

Listening to his press conferences adds further confidence that Donald is building towards a big performance at the Masters again.

"It's my first event on the PGA Tour and to come out, and to play solidly all week, it's very encouraging. It's just showing the work I've been doing over the off-season is starting to pay off," he said after his third place at Riviera.

And after a second place in the Honda Classic.... "I take absolute positives from this week. These are definitely positive steps in the right direction. It just proves that I'm going through the process of really working on my swing and being very consistent with my practice and my work ethic, and it's resulting in good results. I feel like I'm improving. I'm getting better as a player."

He's certainly not a trendy pick this week but at 50/1 he could prove a profitable one. Have an each-way punt.If Donald is something of a forgotten man this week, so is the player who beat him at the Honda - Ernie Els.

Els couldn't make an impact in two events after that win and was then ruled out of the Houston Open last week through illness. A combination of the two has seen his odds drift out to 28/1.

But the South African is experienced enough to know that flying under the radar can be beneficial and he admits on his website that his flu virus actually helped take his mind of Augusta which could work in his favour.

"I always feel pretty confident going into this tournament. I think the way the course is set-up these days suits my game," says Els in his own preview, that latter point reflecting that he's a two-time US Open winner who likes tough set-ups.

Although he hasn't featured in the Masters since being runner-up in 2004, Els has finished fourth and third in the last two Majors and previously at Augusta he made the top six five years running between 2000 and 2004.

The problem I have with Els is that he, more than any of the top players, still seems to wilt when Tiger puts pressure on him.

It happened in Dubai recently and to be honest has been going in for years. In fact, Els hasn't won an event with Woods in the field since 2004.

Drifting

But, due to him drifting out of the public eye for the last few weeks, Els is now virtually the same price (18/1) in the 'without Woods' betting as he was, and normally is, in the full outright Augusta betting.

That win in the Honda shouldn't be underestimated in terms of making Els believe he can win again and although Tiger may just have his number once more, Ernie is certainly good enough to finish best of the rest.

Taking a leap down the betting and the 90/1 about Fred Couples could prove a massive price.

Adam Scott recently played a practice round at Augusta with the 1992 Masters champ and revealed that Couples could play this course in his sleep as he knew where to hit every single shot.

Couples has threatened to add to his single Green Jacket on numerous occasions and only a cold putter stopped him two years ago.

Although he's now 48, Couples is by no means a sideshow at Augusta and gave himself the ideal warm-up by finishing fourth in last week's Shell Houston Open.

It's worth taking a closer look at that performance because it throws up some really encouraging signs.

For starters, Couples improved his score each day - 73-69-67-66 - but, best of all, he was fifth in the putting stats havingbeen 10th at Bay Hill in his previous start.

Add a hot putter to Couples' armoury and he becomes a serious contender.

For a final outright pick, I've toyed with in-form Geoff Ogilvy, KJ Choi and Padraig Harrington and the 11/1 about Phil Mickelson is tempting.

But I just can't get away from Retief Goosen now that he's awoken from his slumber.

Goosen traded at 6/4 in the final round last year after making the cut on the number and his eventual second place was his third successive top three finish in the Masters.

Also runner-up in 2002, the Goose seems to thrive at this venue whatever they do to it although it shouldn't be lost on us that the harder it gets the better as he's a two-time US Open champion.

Fancy prices

Goosen traded at some fancy prices in the build-up to this year's event after looking way out of form but after a top 15 at Bay Hill and a second place at Doral he's deservedly been slashed.

However, the 30/1 is still big enough for us to play given his fantastic record at a course where, to a large agree, you either get it or you don't and, as an added bonus, Goosen has also made the top four in each of his last six starts in Georgia.

You may have noticed that with 13pts allocated so far, a placed finish for a couple of our tips will just fail to clear an overall profit.

And that takes us back to the start of the preview and the claim that there are better 5/4 shots to be had than a win bet on Tiger.

The one in mind is Vijay Singh finishing in the top 10.

Singh has made the top 10 here five times in the last six years which stacks up well against Tiger's one win in the last five. Vijay's streak was snapped last year but only by a single shot as he finished tied 13th.

The Fijian arrives at Augusta having finished second and third on his last two starts so everything points to yet another Masters top 10.

A solid show from Singh and a placed finish from any of our other five will put us nicely in profit but hopefully we can look forward to something bigger and better.