Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon
By Ian Ogg
Last Updated: 13/08/14 8:18pm
Ian Ogg picks out the key statistics for Saturday's Great St Wilfrid at Ripon and highlights Kimberella as being worth a bet.
There are some fascinating three-year-olds among the entries for Saturday's William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes and the likes of Almargo, That Is The Spirit and See The Sun are sure to attract attention.
Mayson did finish third at 40/1 in 2011 and Spirit of France fifth at 25s in 2005 which is not a disgraceful return given that few from their generation have lined up and that not many of those that did hold live claims.
They have to be opposed from a stats point of view though as this is a handicap in which the older horses have a decent record and one that the eye is immediately drawn to is Kimberella.
David Nicholls has an excellent record in this contest and the 'Sprint King' is enjoying a resurgent season after a few quiet campaigns.
Barnet Fair is sure to attract his share of support and wasn't disgraced in this race in 2012 but his stablemate could be the one to be with on this occasion.
The Kyllachy gelding has taken his form to new heights since joining Nicholls this season and it's interesting to note the Bawtry handler's words after he won over course and distance in April when he said 'we might keep him back for one of the big ones'.
Since then, he's finished a decent third behind Tatlisu and Muthmir at Newcastle and won at Chester before finishing sixth in the Sky Bet Dash at York.
There are comparisons to be drawn with last year's winner Baccarat who dead-heated in the same spring contest at this track before also finishing sixth in the Dash and the form of this year's renewal is working out strongly.
Muthmir may have been beaten in the Stewards' Cup but he looked all over the winner a furlong out and may just have found the run coming too soon; either way, he can hardly be said to have let the form down.
The runner-up, Goldream, and third, Rene Mathis, both won their next starts while the fifth, Out Do, finished a fair third, so there's plenty to commend the performance and it's possible that he still has a little more to give despite the handicapper's attentions.
The last three winners have all won over C&D and the last four are all course winners while two of those also ran in the Sky Bet Dash and Kimberella also fits nicely into the ratings bands for this contest.
I'll revisit the race after declarations have been made on Thursday but he's definitely already one for the short-list and looks a very worthwhile bet at 14/1 with Sky Bet.
- Winners have been aged four (4), five (2), six (2) and seven (2).
- Winners have carried between 8-7 and 9-10 with eight between 8-7 and 9-4.
- Winners have been rated between 80 and 100 with nine between 92 and 100 (including the last eight).
- Winners have been priced between 7/2 and 20/1 with eight returned between 17/2 and 16/1.
- Two favourites have been successful with a further two placed.
- Winners have been drawn between 2 and 17 with nine between 2 and 12.
- Five winners have been placed on their previous start with two successful.
- Seven winners had won a race during the current season.
- All winners had won a race with a field size of at least 14.
- Four winners ran in the Stewards' Cup; two finished fourth, two were unplaced.
- David Nicholls has trained two winners and a further eight placed runners.