Sunday 4 October 2015 13:09, UK
The NFL is getting tasty and Sky Sports expert Richard Graves reckons he knows what to expect in Week 4...
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Going into Week 3 the Baltimore Ravens were the only franchise in NFL history never to have started a season 0-3. That record is now gone and serious questions are being asked.
How can a team which pushed the New England Patriots so close in last season's play-offs struggle so mightily now? The answer lies partly in their defence. While the focus has been on the loss of Terrell Suggs to a season-ending injury, it's through the air where the Ravens have been torn apart.
Twice on Sunday they held a fourth-quarter lead but twice Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton found AJ Green to score and Baltimore's pass defence now ranks 29th, allowing 291 yards per game!
It's with some relief then they head to Pittsburgh knowing QB Ben Roethlisberger won't be lining up against them. In his place, Michael Vick will lead the Steelers. His mobility will pose different problems for Baltimore and while his arm strength isn't an issue for the Steelers, his decision making is. With RB Le'Veon Bell in the backfield and star WR Antonio Brown available to him, Vick has plenty of help in this offence - he just needs to manage it effectively.
Baltimore need more out of their running game - a game in Pittsburgh, even without Roethlisberger available, on a short week is too great a challenge for a team currently in a tailspin.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Result: Ravens 23-20 Steelers (OT)
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (London)
For the first time in history a divisional rivalry will be played outside of America as two AFC East foes go head-to-head at Wembley Stadium. The Dolphins were at Wembley 12 months ago and blew out the Oakland Raiders. Now, it's a very different scenario.
The Dolphins have lost two of their three games and a defence, built on the free agent record signing of DT Ndamukong Suh has so far failed to live up to expectations. Last Sunday, the Buffalo Bills racked up a total of 429 yards on offence against the Dolphins who couldn't get anything going themselves. In the first half alone QB Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions, not helped by an offensive line which offered no protection.
Meanwhile, the Jets came back down to Earth with a bump, losing their first game this year to the struggling Philadelphia Eagles - it was a defeat largely of their own making. They gave up an 89-yard punt return for a TD, threw three interceptions and saw WR Brandon Marshall inexplicably turn the ball over midway through the game, trying to lateral the ball after making a catch in traffic.
While Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has done well this season, his limitations were exposed last week, lacking the arm strength to drive the ball down the field while trying to win the game. If Miami can make the Jets play from behind at Wembley, they have every chance but that means their offence has to come to play against a defensive unit which ranks fourth in the NFL. If it's a close contest, the Jets will improve to 3-1.
Pick: New York Jets
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
WR Julio Jones has been a beast through the first three weeks of the season and nobody has found a way to stop him. Last week, Atlanta lined him up out wide, in the slot and in the backfield and the Dallas Cowboys were run ragged as Jones finished the game with two TDs and 164 receiving yards.
The Falcons are also a side with character. They've trailed in the fourth quarter of all 3 games this season and come back to win. If there are any concerns in Atlanta they will likely be on the defensive side of the ball but there's a sense this could be a very good year for Dan Quinn's side.
This weekend they face the Texans - fresh off their opening win of the season but a team with plenty of problems. Chief among them is the QB position. Ryan Mallett remains the incumbent starter but with indifferent play.
In three games this season, the Houston Texans haven't scored more than 20 points in a game. That's not likely to be enough against an Atlanta juggernaut averaging 29.7 points per game.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills
The Giants got their season up and running with a victory over the Washington Redskins and they've had a long week to prepare for an across-state trip to Buffalo. Once again clock management was an issue but this time they managed to hold onto a fourth quarter lead, ensuring they keep pace with their rivals in what's turning out to be a mediocre NFC East division.
Bills' rookie RB Karlos Williams had a big day last week against Miami, rushing for over 100 yards and a TD while the defence shut down their opposition, finishing the day with three turnovers. The one sour note was the calf injury to WR Sammy Watkins.
Another attacking weapon, LeSean McCoy, is described as unlikely to feature in this week's game as he continues to struggle with a hamstring injury.
Buffalo should still have enough to overcome these setbacks and will look to make the most of the confusion which has dogged the Giants' offence this season. If they can contain star WR Odell Beckham Jr it's difficult to see how the Bills lose.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Who thought after three weeks either of these teams would have a winning record, and did anyone think it would be the 2-1 Raiders? Last weekend Raiders' QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper and RB Latavius Murray had more passing, receiving and rushing yards in a game than any other under-25 trio of team-mates in NFL history.
While I'm not prepared to say Oakland's days in the wilderness are over, there's a big ray of sunshine on the horizon. It's been a long time since Raiders fans had reason to be this optimistic. Carr impressed many observers in his rookie season and he appears to be improving with every game. Cooper is already justifying his billing as the best receiver in the draft, putting together back to back 100+ yard games and Latavius Murray has a home run ability every time he touches the ball.
In contrast the Black Friday sales have arrived early in Chicago as DE Jared Allen and LB Jon Bostic were both traded away. The Bears floundered under the guidance of back-up QB Jimmy Clausen in Seattle, who completed just nine passes for 63 yards. They punted away every possession (10 in total) and were shut out for the first time since 2002 in a 26-0 thrashing.
Clausen will again be under centre for the visit of Oakland and given the inept performance against the Seahawks it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the Bears contain the Raiders for 60 minutes.
Pick: Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs have finally thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver, ending a streak dating back to week 14 of the 2013 season! Jeremy Maclin was the recipient on Monday night in Green Bay but they were blown away by the Packers.
RB Jamaal Charles finished with three TDs but the Chiefs were never in the game as Aaron Rodgers picked apart their defence, meaning they head to the unbeaten Bengals with a 1-2 record.
Cincinnati's Andy Dalton's relationship with WR AJ Green is one of the most feared in the NFL and it was enough to account for the Ravens last week, as Green finished with two TDs and 227 receiving yards.
Cincinnati will need to be better against a Chiefs defence, which despite being ripped apart by Green Bay, is still one of the better units in this league. Ultimately the stats don't lie and in their last two games the Chiefs have had no answer for Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Both teams enter this game with a 1-2 record and victory here may well give us an idea of how the AFC South will pan out this season.
While Jacksonville are looking for a season which would finally suggest their curve is on the up, much more is expected from the Colts. Everything from the head coach's relationship with the general manager to the play of QB Andrew Luck is under intense scrutiny.
They grabbed their first win of the season in Tennessee last Sunday but only after withstanding a late rally from the Titans. Luck threw two more interceptions in that game (taking his total to seven) and has a pass completion rate of just 56 per cent this season.
The Jaguars are giving up just over 30 points per game - only San Francisco and Chicago have conceded more after three weeks. Aligned with an offence which is only scoring 16 points per game, the Jaguars are once again struggling.
This would appear to be an ideal matchup for the Colts and if Luck is a little more careful with the ball, Indianapolis's 0-2 start may fade into history.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers are one of just seven remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL! Who would have thought that when they lost WR Kelvin Benjamin for the year in pre-season?
QB Cam Newton is leading from the front but it's not just him who's stepped up his game. The Panthers defence may not be lauded on the national stage but it is one of the best units in the NFL. They rank seventh overall but are the fourth best defence against the run (75.7 yds per game) and second only to the Jets in points allowed (16 per game).
None of this makes for good reading for the Buccaneers who just could not get out of their own way in their defeat in Houston. Only Chicago and San Francisco have scored fewer points than the Buccaneers this season (49). Even on home turf - the site of their opening day mauling by the Titans - there's likely to be little solace against the Panthers.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
The last time Philly played an NFC East rival, it was brutal to watch. They couldn't do a thing against the Cowboys. The Redskins were just as bad against the Giants last week. There's a familiar pattern developing here so if you're fearing the worst, it's with good reason.
The Redskins have played well at home this season - shocking the Rams in Week 2 after pushing the Dolphins all the way in the season opener, making this a tough game to call. It's also worth bearing in mind the Eagles have only scored 58 points themselves this season! Even so, they'll hope last week's win is a sign that they've turned the corner.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers
The Chargers return home for the first time since their Week 1 win over the Lions. They couldn't contain RB Adrian Peterson last week and WR AJ Green was too good against their secondary a week earlier but the Browns are an entirely different proposition. They don't have a stand-out wide receiver and their running game ranks 25th in the NFL, averaging a tick over 86 yards per game.
The Browns flattered to deceive, beating the Titans in Week 2 before producing a lacklustre performance in defeat to the Raiders last time out.
For the Chargers, competing in an AFC West division where the Raiders are now the closest challengers to the Broncos, this is a must win game - and they will!
Pick: San Diego Chargers
St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
When the season started the Cardinals were one of the teams I picked to compete in the NFC Championship game and after three weeks they've only reinforced that belief.
Defensively they are dominant, ranking fifth against the pass, 11th against the run, tied for third in points allowed and they've returned three of their seven interceptions for touchdowns.
None of this even factors in the play of veteran QB Carson Palmer, who's thrown nine TDs, only two interceptions and has a QB rating of 117.8!
On paper it looks a tall order for the Rams to travel across the country and stifle the Cardinals on their own turf. I suspect it's going to prove just as tough in reality. RB Todd Gurley did see his first NFL action last week since recovering from an ACL injury after being drafted in the first round last April and he'll likely see more action here but in a limited capacity.
The Rams do have a strong defensive line but that won't be enough to carry an offensive unit which ranks dead last in the NFL
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Welcome back Adrian Peterson!
Before Peterson's enforced layoff last season, no defence was good enough to contain him but this week Minnesota face the No 1 ranked defence in the NFL.
The Vikings have only given up 50 points this season and arguably produced the highlight of the game against San Diego as LB Chad Greenway took an interception 91 yards for a touchdown.
This should be a good contest with Denver's defence again pivotal to the outcome. How they handle Peterson will likely determine who celebrates on Sunday night.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
There's a mantra in the NFL though that everyone lives by: 'Any given Sunday'. That's what the 49ers will believe and they have history on their side - they've won the last four meetings between the two sides.
All of their wins came in an 18-month period between September 2012 and January 2014 and this is a much changed 49ers team. QB Colin Kaepernick is one constant but he no longer has Frank Gore in the backfield to pound the rock and the defence isn't the same ferocious unit which used to intimidate opponents.
Green Bay have continued seamlessly on their way despite dealing with injuries. Aaron Rodgers continues to make a case for being the best quarterback in the NFL. Whatever the problem at the wide receiver position, Rodgers appears capable of plugging someone else in and immediately establishing a rapport.
The Packers are unbeaten this season and have outscored their opponents 96-68. In other words, to beat Green Bay, the 49ers offence has to be both productive and look after the ball. Something they've been unable to do over the last two weeks.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Saints QB Drew Brees insists he "expects to play" on Sunday night against Dallas. We heard a similar line last week though. As things stand, it'll be a battle of the back-up QBs - Luke McCown v Brandon Weeden.
Dallas will need to have an effective run game, as they did in the early going against the Falcons last week, if they are to have any success in the Superdome. Rob Ryan will be aware that his defence must get to Weeden if New Orleans are to come out on top.
Weeden is 0-9 in his last nine starts! Before Saints fans get too excited, McCown is just 2-8 in his NFL career and New Orleans have lost their last six games at home.
Even so, Dallas are struggling for depth defensively with players missing this game through injury or suspension. McCown moved the ball well last week and if Brees were to play, it would give the Saints a clear advantage.
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Week 4 rounds off with the winless Lions travelling to the Pacific North West to face the Seahawks - fresh off of their first win this season. True, that win was only over the Bears but with Kam Chancellor back in the fold, the Legion of Boom is whole again.
The Seahawks will hope for more production this week than they managed against the Bears but it maybe without RB Marshawn Lynch. He had an MRI on a hamstring injury earlier this week and with Seattle not playing until Monday night, they'll take plenty of time to evaluate his status.
Detroit appear to have all the offensive weapons but they're offering little in the way of protection for QB Matthew Stafford. Against a defence like Seattle's, that's bad news.
This is the worst start to a season in Detroit since 2010 and it's difficult to see them getting out of this 0-3 hole.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
