I think 37 points will keep you in the Premier League this season. On that basis I think Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham and Reading are the ones in real trouble.
I feel Sunderland and Wigan need just one more win to make them safe and I think both of them have good enough home form to get that, so I'd say the relegation scrap is now between the teams below Wigan
Four gone? Megson, Coppell, McLeish, Hodgson
Of those teams, I think Birmingham have got the better players, but they're struggling to put results together and I think they've got the toughest run-in. They've got to play Aston Villa, Liverpool, Fulham and Blackburn and they've got to get a win from somewhere. If they don't they'll be in real trouble and that has got to be a worry for Birmingham fans.
Gary Megson has called on Rafael Benitez to "retain the integrity of the Premier League" by playing a full-strength side in those games, but I'd say to Gary: "You can't have it both ways".
Andy Gray
Quotes of the week
Saturday, 12.30pm, Sky Sports 1
I think Fulham have probably gone because they need to win three out of their four games - and they probably need to draw the other one to stay up. I think that's too much of an ask.
They're at home to Birmingham in the penultimate game of the season and that could be massive. But Alex McLeish will be hoping Fulham have lost a couple of matches by then because Birmingham's record against the teams down at the bottom isn't great.
I never know what to make of Steve Coppell's Reading. They went on a good little run and it looked like they were pulling clear, but suddenly they slipped again and they've dropped right back into the mire.
I don't think they'll beat Arsenal this weekend and then they go to Wigan - who have a very good home record - and will probably be desperate for a win themselves. I don't see them acquiring any more than a point in the next two games if they're lucky.
That means they go into a home game against Tottenham - and you just never know what sort of mood Spurs will be in. Reading's future might just hinge on their final game of the season up at Pride Park - a game that means nothing to Derby, but everything to Reading.
Big ask
It all depends on the teams below them. Bolton's remaining fixtures are Middlesbrough away, Tottenham away, Sunderland at home and Chelsea away.
To stay up they'll probably need to take four points from away games against Spurs and Chelsea and that's a massive ask for a team like Bolton, who have played poorly all season.
And remember they are going to be without the suspended Kevin Davies in the next couple of games and he's been a massive part of the success they've had in the past.
Overall, I think Birmingham and Reading might get out of jail, simply because the teams below them won't be good enough to catch them.
Every weekend and every set of fixtures are so big for those four teams now. Looking ahead to this weekend, Bolton have got to go to Middlesbrough which is never easy because they make life very difficult for teams at the Riverside
Reading play Arsenal and I can't really see them getting three points at the Emirates, while Birmingham go to Villa Park for a local derby when Villa have suddenly started playing better and scoring lots of goals.
Resting
It's an interesting one for Fulham, who play a Liverpool side that I don't think will include Steven Gerrard, Fernando Torres and half a dozen of their best players because of their Champions League game next Wednesday. That's going to be to Roy Hodgson's advantage.
Birmingham play Liverpool the week after, which is fortunate for them because I don't think Rafael Benitez, if past experience is anything to go by, will risk his big stars in that game either - unless Everton have closed the gap or overtake them. That factor will help Fulham and Birmingham.
Gary Megson has called on Benitez to "retain the integrity of the Premier League" by playing a full-strength side in those games, but I'd say to Gary: "You can't have it both ways".
You can't do what he did in the Uefa Cup - when he pretty much sent a reserve team to play Sporting Lisbon - and then come back and complain when somebody else does the same when they're involved in a tournament that's important to them.
Yes, in a perfect world all the best players should play in games that mean something. But we don't live in a perfect world in football any more and managers are allowed to manipulate their sides to their own cause.
Fulham benefited form the same situation last year when Benitez left out a host of players and Fulham beat them at Craven Cottage. That result alone probably kept them up and it may be the case again.
The fight will go on because relegation is a huge blow whichever way you look at it. It goes without saying that there are huge financial implications, but also if you look at the league they go down into, it's very hard to get back up again.
Last season Sheffield United, Charlton and Watford went down and who's coming back up form those three? Maybe Watford will get back through the play-offs, but that will be difficult.
Everyone thought that Charlton and Sheffield United in particular would bounce straight back with the money and the players they've got, but that hasn't proven to be the case.
The Championship is a dog-eat-dog league and it's very difficult to escape. None of the four teams I've mentioned will want to put themselves in that situation.
Comments (8)
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Nige Hurst (Bolton Wanderers fan) says...
How wrong can people be
Posted 11:48 12th May 2008
Jordan Mcevoy (Aston Villa fan) says...
The relegation batlle consistently proves more exciting than the title race at this end of the season and this season is no different. I think Fulham might be doomed but that last relegation spot is up for grabs in a big way. Birmingham are by no means safe and have a tough run in and Bolton missing Kevin Davies may leave the fans looking back and saying 'what if'. Reading will do enough to survive in my book so i think it'll be between Birmingham and Bolton for that last, not so coveted, spot!
Posted 14:51 18th April 2008
Pratap Singh (Liverpool fan) says...
The relegation battle is hotting up now, it's getting tough down there. Last week, Bolton played West Ham and played magnificent, all credit to them, so I'm pretty sure Gary Megson acn play the same team again and hope to get the points which will help their survival chances. Gary Megson can't tell other managers how to do their jobs, pick the team that suits his club. Frankly, any team Rafa puts up will play their best. At the end of the day, no team likes losing, so the players will go out on the pitch with their heads held high, they will look to bag 3 points, as will Fulham. If Bolton do get relegated, they can't blame Liverpool for it. They will have to look at their own mistakes.
Posted 14:36 18th April 2008
Mick Dunworth (Birmingham City fan) says...
I think Andy Gray has it pretty much right in the PL Relegation fight, the odd ball could be Reading if Bolton can pick up a couple of points. I see Birmingham City getting three 1-1 ties and a massive 3 points at Fulham to give McCleish a full season in the PL to prove himself.
Posted 13:09 18th April 2008
Brian Page (Birmingham City fan) says...
Certainly looks that way Andy, but then this is soccer and Arsenal looked to have the title wrapped up a few weeks back until they met my team. The end of the season is a great leveler in part due to teams playing others who are saving themselves for silverware but largely due to sheer desperation. I think it will go down to the wire again this year. Brian Page
Posted 11:42 18th April 2008
Craig Williams (Manchester United fan) says...
Good analysis here Andy as I too think it is a four way fight for the relegatiion spots. However, I think Fulham will just scrape it and stay up. Look at what happened over in East London last year. A team of no-hopers seems to cause a surprise every season and stay up. Remember Bradford City? No one gave them a prayer and they managed to stay up! Reading will be the casulties in Fulhams place.
Posted 23:59 17th April 2008
Curt Patterson (Tottenham Hotspur fan) says...
Not convinced Wigan are out of trouble They may lose to Tottenham Saturday and again to Reading away the following weekend, depends on how others do in their respective games. But it does look like its all over for Fulham, another loss and it would be very hard for them.
Posted 17:57 17th April 2008
Steve Smith (Sunderland fan) says...
I tend to agree that Fulham and Bolton will go, because their form, last weekend excluded, suggests they are unlikely to get even 6 points from their remaining games. Reading are an enigma but I can see them reaching 35/36 points alongside Birmingham. The North East's trio have effectively escaped, and Wigan are showing Steve Bruce's mettle.
Posted 16:22 17th April 2008
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