Looking at the sheer size of Nikolai Valuev, this really is a tall order for David Haye.

But the first thing to say, is the Russian is far from unbeatable. A 46-year-old Evander Holyfield probably should've got the verdict against him; John Ruiz, who is certainly not the most gifted of heavyweights took him close twice and Ruslan Chagaev a southpaw, used skill and speed to beat him.

Haye: loves nothing more than a fight, but Saturday's not the night

Those are the plus points - and ones that can't be dismissed just because of his sheer physical size.

Yet this fight is all about tactics and I think, all about what David Haye does - and that is where my concerns come in.

If David goes into this fight happy that he doesn't look all that great but wins on points, or if uses his speed to get in, get the punches off and gets back out there and doesn't get drawn into a physical battle, there's a fair chance he can win on Saturday night.

But this is David Haye we are talking about. The reason we are so excited about him and love to watch him is because of the way he acts, the way he fights. David loves producing drama, he wants to please the fans and looking good is really important to him.

Already this week he has been talking about having the power to go in there and blast this fella out. I do think he might start off hitting and moving but pretty soon - even if those tactics are working - he will want to move in, tee off and get involved.

Heavier

If that happens I can see him running out of steam. I am not going to rattle on about his stamina problem because I am not actually sure he has one, but it doesn't matter if he does or not; when you are in with a guy at least six stones heavier than you, just trying to free yourself from clinches and cope with the size is very, very tiring. And 12 rounds is a long time to do it.

A lot here also depends on how quickly David is drawn into a straight-up fight with Valuev, because I do think it's inevitable. Who David Haye is could well be his undoing; he already wants to be the first to knock this guy out.

He may well have the power to do it - and I doubt Valuev has been in with anyone who can punch as hard as Haye does - but I would be a lot more confident had he proved himself in the heavyweight division.

That is another of major concerns, and was from the moment this fight was made. David is 29, he's not really peaked yet and time is on his side, so had I been him or Adam Booth and I saw my future at heavyweight for the next few years, I would've had a couple of decent fights against names.

Had he kept on doing that, his profile would've been raised and raised and I have no doubt that by 2010 he'd have a mandatory position for one of the titles. Most of the other heavyweights out there have had their shot, so he would've got that number one ranking soon enough. I just wonder what that says about his mindset going into this.

That said, I would never ever question David Haye's motives in the ring. He is one of the bravest boxers out there, there is no questioning his integrity or fighting spirit and I don't doubt for a second that when he climbs into that ring here in Nuremberg on Saturday, he will give it his very best shot.

Sickened

He will need to as well because out here, he has turned himself into Public Enemy Number One. There is already a feeling that he has jumped the queue to get this crack, but the feeling among the neutrals out here is that he has overstepped the mark with some of his statements about Valuev.

Yes, he has a fight to sell but some of that stuff hasn't been very nice at all. If you saw the press conference on Wednesday, Pavel Govzman from Don King Productions summed it up when he said they would "shut his dirty mouth". He was really quite strong on that and a lot of people have been pretty sickened by what David has said.

There is no doubt it has been done to rile Valuev because here is a guy who sets a pace and keeps it going for 12 rounds, so if he can get under his skin and disrupt that, then great. But David did the same with both Vitali and Wladimir Klitschko, he does it with everybody. Yes he is selling himself and marketing the fight, but everyone out here is putting their money on Valuev because of it.

I am not sure he is going to ruffle Valuev either. As I said earlier on this fight hinges, to my mind, on what David Haye does. I know some of my colleagues think he needs a fast start, but what he needs is an early start. That means winning rounds early on, not rushing out looking for the big shots, and it is vital he is ahead at the halfway point because like it or not, he is eventually going to be drawn into a brawl.

Unless David can catch him flush on the chin - and whoever you are, however big you are you can be knocked out - this guy is just going to keep walking him down, getting up close and he will have to weather a very heavy storm in the second half of the fight.

Exciting

Every now and then he should have a go at that chin, because he might well be right; he might catch him and Valuev may not have been in with anyone that hits as hard, or as cleanly as David can. If this was Vitali Klitschko we were talking about, you would expect him to knock Valuev out, but this is a cruiserweight stepping up, who has been on the floor at cruiserweight.

Valuev has also better at his art than he gets credit for, too. He uses his physical advantages of course, but does the basics very well and has a decent jab, which is a proper punch not just a paw, and he has a right uppercut that can do damage. Defensively he is pretty good and his hands are held high.

But he is still a big, big target and one that I don't think David Haye will be able to resist. If he is prepared to move, get those punches off and move again, and not worry about how exciting it is or how good he looks, there's no reason he cannot nick a points victory.

He will have to win convincingly to get that out here in Germany and I do think if you start factoring the judges into your gameplan, you are going wrong from the very start. It will probably be irrelevant though, because David being David will want to prove to everybody he is a worthy heavyweight champion.

He does have a real warrior's heart, but if you run out of steam, a boxing ring is the worst place in the world to be - especially when the other guy is still going strong, as Valuev will be, and is so much bigger. There's no doubt David will give it a real go, but I am not sure how much confidence or belief he has in himself here.

He needs a performance of real discipline to pull this off and that is just not his strongest suit. He will throw caution to the wind sooner or later and if someone hits him with a punch, he wants to hit them straight back with an even harder one.

But if I was a betting man I would put money on Valuev to win this, probably on points, simply because he is more experience at this weight and level. David Haye can pull it off, of course he can, but I have a feeling what makes him so watchable is what might well prove his undoing on Saturday night.

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