Just how can you predict a winner for the British Grand Prix at Cardiff with any confidence? It's like backing a horse on the Grand National!
The fact that the track is temporary is the major reason why it's hard to feel like a rider is nailed on to win it.
Then add the fact that the stadium is one of the best in the world and the crowd regularly approaches 50,000 and you can see why it's so unpredictable.
Pedersen: Nigel's tip
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nicki Pedersen come good again. Jason Crump and teenage sensation Emil Sayfitdinov have been a joy to watch this season - but Nicki hasn't become a bad rider overnight.
He's still world class, a true world champion. Doubts must now be creeping in over whether he can actually win the title now this season because he's so far behing Crumpie - and for that reason there may be a little less pressure on his shoulders.
I'll stick my neck out and go for Pedersen to win in Cardiff.
Nicki's also had more than his fair share if misfortune this season and I wonder whether Cardiff is the meeting when it all comes right for him.
Prediction time
As mentioned earlier, it's so hard to make a prediction with any great confidence, so I'll stick my neck out and go for Pedersen to win in Cardiff - but Crumpie will again reach the final which will be enough for him to keep up his lead at the top of the table going into the mid-season break for the World Cup.
And there's no reason why Sayfiutdinov cannot make a huge impression on his Cardiff debut, backed by British engine tuner Ashley Holloway. The British public are sure to be excited about seeing the Russian here.
I'm thrilled to see the British Grand Prix at Cardiff for a ninth successive year.
It's better surroundings than Wembley, close to the city centre, and the stadium is just as nice.
Bring it on!
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