It's preview season here in the US. And that means everyone and their aunt has an opinion on who will be in Miami next February for Super Bowl XLIV.
Yes, yes, there is still a week of the pre-season to go before we get to the first games on September 10 (Pittsburgh v Tennessee) and September 13 and 14 (everyone else) but, as we discussed last week, no-one - least of all the coaches - takes the warm-up games seriously, especially the fourth and final one.
Eyes on the prize: Super Bowl trophy
Just to underline this latter point, Minnesota coach Brad Childress has announced he will sit ALL his starters for Friday's game with Dallas, just in case anyone gets injured. Way to make things completely meaningless, coach.
That also means Brett Favre will start the season with just half a game and a bit under his belt, even less than before last year's miserable failure with the Jets. Way to hang your job security on a knife-edge, too, coach.
But back to the topic du jour. Predictions. Everybody's doing them, and that means it's a great opportunity to make fun of them and highlight the long-shots and "You, what?"s of this particular season.
Giants fancied
First off, a LOT of people are high on the New York Giants to repeat their championship charge of two seasons ago. Which, of course, means Eli Manning will have the worst season of his pro career and their complete lack of wide receivers (which most pundits seem happy to overlook) will doom them to their first losing season in five years.
Many also rate New England to come storming back from their Tom Brady-less 2008 and sweep all before them as they did the previous season (apart from that slight hiccup against the Giants). Which also ignores the small factoid that the Patriots' defence has suffered some serious blows since last term when they were less than stellar anyway. And the fact that Brady's 'season for the ages' in 2007 saw him DOUBLE his career touchdown average from the previous six years (from 24.5 to 50). Realistic expectations of a return to his '07 production would seem wildly optimistic at best.
Reigning champs Pittsburgh are also highly fancied in some quarters (including much of Pennsylvania that isn't Philadelphia) to be even better than 12 months ago, the theory being that their defence has hardly missed a beat from its ferocious glory tour in 2008 while Ben Roethlisberger will continue to improve on his meager resume to date (just five seasons, two Super Bowls and a gaudy 51-20 win-loss record).
But, irrespective of the fact the odds against repeating as champs these days are several gazillion to one, the AFC is likely to be a veritable Murderer's Row of prospective pitfalls, from the aforementioned Patriots to the quietly determined Colts, the in-form Chargers, the still-solid Titans and the Wildcatty Dolphins, not forgetting the little matter of another dust-up for the AFC North title with arch-rivals the Ravens, who also fancy themselves as an improved outfit this year.
Saints-sation?
New Orleans are another outfit who have become the blue-eyed boys of large portions of the media, not least because Drew Brees seems capable of throwing for 50,000 yards and 60 touchdowns. And that's just against the Raiders. But again, their Achilles heel - a defence that gave up 393 points last year - remains glaringly exposed, despite adding free agent cornerback Jabari Greer (a smart move, according to most) and bringing in defensive guru Gregg Williams as coordinator. If they even win their division (the tough-as-nails NFC South), they will have done well (and confounded many).
Go anywhere within a time zone of Chicago and you will also find plenty of Bears fans (and commentators) willing to insist their team is finally ready to go one better than Super Bowl XLI when Rex Grossman almost proved that quarterback skills are optional if you have a great defence. Sadly, that defence has aged considerably in the past two years and, while Jay Cutler is a distinct upgrade at QB, the fact is he has still tossed some 32 interceptions in the past two seasons - and that was with some REAL receivers at Denver.
In fact, when it comes to the NFC North - already being lauded as this year's true Black 'n Blue division - there are almost as many willing to make out a case for either Green Bay (the monsters of the pre-season - as if that counted for anything) or the newly Favre-minted Vikings as there are for Chicago. So watch for Detroit to be this year's dark horses!
But, in all seriousness, if there seem almost as many genuine pre-season contenders as there are teams in the NFL, that is because there ARE.
With the genuine exceptions of the teams you already know are going to be the gridiron doormats of 2009 - step forward Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit and St Louis - there is absolutely nothing clear-cut about the chase for Miami.
Falcons flying?
You can make out a case for Atlanta to improve on their Wild Card showing last term; for Houston to be the Most Improved outfit; for Denver to put one over Cutler by winning behind cast-off Kyle Orton; for Tony Romo to prove that Terrell Owens WAS the problem in Cowboyville; and even for Philadelphia to finally shake off their 'bridesmaid-never-the-bride' reputation.
It is a wonderfully wide open scenario, and no-one has yet to propose the cast-iron, can't-miss argument why any of the above should be holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Land Shark Stadium (ugh! Has any other stadium had more names than the Dolphins' home arena? That makes it seven, and counting. No wonder South Florida football fans struggle to turn up sometimes - they don't know where to ask for half the time) on February 7.
Except that we can be pretty sure it won't be Arizona. Nothing against Kurt Warner and Co, but the last Super Bowl runner-up to improve by one key win the following season was actually Miami themselves, WAY back in 1973. And that's the only instance in 42 years.
There have been eight teams to repeat as champs (including Pittsburgh twice), and three that have got back to the big game but come up short. But runners-up just do not come bouncing back to challenge again anytime soon. In fact, there is more chance of the Cardinals failing to reach the playoffs, statistically, than in being in Miami in anything other than a spectating role.
So, five teams ruled out, 27 'contenders.' Ready for the season yet?
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