I took a straw poll the other day and it came up with some VERY interesting findings. Admittedly, it was just me, the missus, our next-door neighbour in Orlando, the weekly rubbish collection men, someone who happened to be walking past at the time, and his dog. But it highlighted some fascinating NFL trends all the same.

Finding No 1: take nothing for granted this season (unless it is that St Louis could rival Detroit for last year's 0-for effort, and Oakland will continue to stink the place up with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback).

Hard-hitting: St Louis' Steven Jackson is crunched by the 49ers

There are just too many streaky teams this term for accurate predictions. Denver's four-game run has surprised most people over here, while Cincinnati's little 3-game saunter has stunned observers of the AFC North. Tennessee's inability to trouble the 'W' column thus far is another head-shaker, and Carolina's plummet from on high is equally vexing (although watchers of the volatile NFC South will tell you no team has repeated as champs since the division was created in 2002).

Finding No 2: Indianapolis can take just about anyone and turn them into a wide receiver, as long as Peyton Manning is pulling the trigger. Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne still lead the way, but no Marvin Harrison or Anthony Gonzalez? No problem!

Just call up Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie (surely some long-lost brand of car, for those with a memory long enough to remember when Britain still made cars?). That duo has 22 catches for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns thus far, and I guarantee neither of them thought that would be the case at the start of the campaign.

Defence

Finding No 3: defence wins championships (OK, OK, I know that's a cliché, but it doesn't mean it can't also be true, right?). Only New Orleans and Baltimore are averaging more than 30 points per game, while fully 13 teams are currently being held to less than 20. The ability to stop the other team has been vital in the rise of Denver, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Francisco and even the Saints thus far this term, and there were no less than 10 defensive TDs last weekend. There were also a whopping 35 turnovers committed by the various quarterbacks (something I continue to highlight in my weekly Sports Mania blog under the heading of the QBCL, or Quarterback Challenged League).

And finding No 4: there are going to be several new names in the playoffs come January, and one of those could well be the 49ers, for the first time in seven years.

After Week 4, we could certainly see some of the early-season dust start to settle, even if a four-game sample is pretty thin evidence on which to work (call for CSI Miami - this evidence needs analysing!). Indy, New Orleans, the Giants and Minnesota are all For Real; New England, Baltimore, Denver and Chicago will all be there or thereabouts; and St Louis, Oakland, Cleveland, Kansas City and Tampa can all start to focus on the 2010 Draft.

But two names in particular jump out of that little collection above, and both will be in action on Sky Sports this Sunday (SS3 from 5.30pm), with Cincinnati putting their newfound prowess on the line at Baltimore and the 49ers travelling to last year's surprise package, Atlanta.

Taking the Bengals first, it is easy to be sceptical about their ability to maintain any kind of challenge in an ultra-tough division. Having four games with the likes of Pittsburgh and the Ravens is tantamount to cruelty because of the heavyweight brand of defence that is peddled in both the Steel City and Baltimore these days.

Road wars

But Marv Lewis's men have already found a way to blunt the Steelers while also chalking up an ambush of the Packers at Lambeau Field and putting down divisional rivals Cleveland last week. It's also possible to argue, as several pundits already have this week, that the Bengals could easily be 4-0 but for one fluke play at the end of their opener against Denver, when Brandon Stokley went 87 yards with a deflected pass for the winning TD in the final seconds.

They are already 2-0 in the division and 2-0 on the road, hence the match-up with the Ravens may not be as one-sided as many think. Cincy are giving up just 19 points a game and are playing the kind of D for which Lewis was notable at Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Washington.

Carson Palmer remains a streaky proposition at quarterback, throwing the ball around with almost reckless abandon in the first two games (3 TDs and 4 INTs) but being more conservative in the latter two (3 TDs, 1 INT). He is not quite the legitimate pass-threat weapon he was in 2005 before Kimo von Oelhoffen rearranged his left knee, but he is nobody's dummy, either.

For the Ravens, they simply have to get more production from their receivers. Mark Clayton was the obvious goat in the 27-21 defeat at New England but Joe Flacco's 20 incompletions went to more than just the Teflon-fingered Clayton, and the missed opportunities from last weekend may still be rankling this week, too.

When it comes to the San Fran-Atlanta match-up, everyone is really keen to know - are these 49ers the Real Deal? They have rushed out to a 3-1 record, with only that stunning, last-minute Brett Favre-inspired defeat at Minnesota blotting their 2009 copybook. But wins over an uninspired Arizona, sinking Seattle and sorry St Louis are not the strongest evidence of an end to six successive losing seasons.

But, like Cincinnati, it is the defensive side of things that has got the pundits interested. Shaun Hill isn't going to turn into Peyton Manning or Drew Brees anytime soon, but he could be this year's Kerry Collins, a solid game manager who keeps his team in the close games (while this year's Kerry Collins, conversely, looks more like last year's JaMarcus Russell and this year's Russell is more like Ryan Leaf. Drew Brees isn't even playing like Drew Brees in his last two outings, either, but, like Ronnie Corbett, I digress).

In the 35-0 drubbing of the Rams last Sunday (which included no less than THREE defensive TDs and an absolute field day for anyone who had the 49ers DST in their Fantasy team), it looked very much as if head coach Mike Singletary had discovered a successful cloning device and put 11 of himself on the field. Much of that effort was wasted on a team that will struggle to chalk up another point, let alone a win, until they meet the Lions in Week 8 (and what a barn-burner that could turn out to be - Not!). But the hard-hitting intent of these 49ers will not be lost on the Falcons, who also play a fairly decent D themselves.

Therefore, be ready for two hard-nosed, knock-down, drag-out defensive battles, with Baltimore and San Francisco likely to edge a little further ahead in the 'W' column. And remember: defence wins Championships. You read it here first (or possibly not).

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