There are various different phases of any NFL season. The initial stage for the first 3-4 weeks when teams are still finding their feet; the shake-down phase, where we sort out the Contenders from the Pretenders over weeks 4-8; and then the desperation cycle, when teams either get on their bikes and grind out the wins to keep them in the playoff picture or are ridden out of it altogether.
(NB: This sequence does not count for teams like Tampa, Detroit, St Louis, Oakland and Cleveland, who are pretty much in desperation mode from Week One)
After a suitably wacky Week Eight (first wins for St Louis and Tennessee; inexplicable collapses by Denver, New York Giants and Jacksonville; and surprise surges by Carolina, Dallas and Houston), we are now entering that stage of quiet anxiety, with a whole raft of teams urgently needing to avoid another entry in the 'L' column.
Peyton Manning: 7-0 start
Teams like the Jets and Dolphins, who fought out one of the more bizarre head-to-heads in their long history last Sunday, when the New York men put up 378 yards of offence against Miami's 104 - and still lost.
Teams like Green Bay and Chicago, who have sputtered along to identical 4-3 records without ever convincing anyone they have the staying power to duke it out with the big boys. Or, in their case, the Minnesota Vikings, who look down on both of them from a commanding height.
Teams like Atlanta, who the pundits over here never tire of reminding us, have yet to record successive winning seasons in their 43-year history; and San Francisco, at one point the league's blue-eyed boys but now reeling from three successive black eyes.
And also teams like New York Giants and San Diego, who face each other on Sunday (live on SS2 at 9pm) in the knowledge one of them is going to be left in a hole of considerable dimensions.
A four-game losing streak would certainly be a major handicap to be carrying in the tough NFC East. And, while all three of the division's five-win teams have yet to prove they are genuinely the stuff of post-season bandwagons, the Giants are showing signs that this current run is edging towards serious crisis mode.
Head coach Tom Coughlin has called out his veteran stars like Eli Manning and Antonio Pierce, according to the New York media, demanding that they step up and show the kind of leadership that took them to the title two seasons ago - and has been sorely lacking in the past month. Manning in particular is back under the Press microscope and badly needs to show his Super Bowl style rather than the error-prone turnover-machine form of the past three weeks (just three TDs and 6 INTs).
But the Chargers are also perilously close to being one loss away from emergency status, too. With the way Denver have started the season, San Diego simply cannot afford to fall further behind at the half-way stage (yes, yes, I know; they made up a four-game gap in the final month of last season, but no one honestly thinks they will repeat that kind of high-wire act anytime soon).
Alarm bells
The stark reality for these two gridiron titans, who both started the season as favourites for a deep playoff run, is that they have a miserable record against the better teams. The Giants have beaten only ONE team with a winning record - Dallas - while San Diego are 0-3 in that category. If the alarm bells aren't ringing this week, someone needs to check their fire detectors because there's an AWFUL lot of smoke being generated.
Another factor which the media over here have seized on is that this duo have both feasted on what I call the Terrible Ten (see my Sports Mania blog for full details!), the NFL's near-unprecedented array of cellar dwellers this year, the teams who are so bad you wonder if they have all been financed by Lehman Brothers.
The likes of Tampa, Kansas City, Oakland and Washington are all creating the kind of odour normally associated with skunks (which also begs the question - if you lose to one of this group, as Philadelphia did recently at the Raiders, have you been skunked?), and yet they account for seven of New York and San Diego's combined nine wins. Again, that's hardly the stuff of potential champions.
So, when they do square off on Sunday night, expect an element of desperation and a 'last chance saloon'-ish atmosphere knowing that the dreaded 'L' will take on millstone proportions for whoever finishes on the wrong side of the scoreline.
Two teams which fit into none of the above categories, Indianapolis and Houston, also square off this weekend (live on SS2 from 5.30pm) in possibly the most intriguing match-up of Week Nine.
The Colts are the quietest unbeaten team in recent memory, a smooth, unruffled, well-oiled machine that has sailed serenely to a 7-0 record that makes few people raise their eyebrows. Peyton Manning and Co have piled up four wins by 17 or more points and three by 2 to 4; i.e. they can blow you out or keep it close and stun you at the end.
But for all their dominance, they have not played a team that has legitimate 'Contender' status stamped on it. Until now - and the next month. Instead of Miami, Seattle and San Francisco, Indy must take on the Texans (twice), New England and Baltimore, two at home and two on the road. And their mastery of the AFC South will be fully challenged by a team that is - finally -living up to pre-season expectations. After finishing 2008 with six wins in their final seven games, there was a clamour to proclaim Houston as THE team to watch out for this season. Except that they started 2009 2-3, and those two wins came against members of the Terrible Ten (Tennessee and Oakland).
Now, however, they have a solid three-win streak going and their motto ought to be 'If not now, when....?' The one cloud spoiling their silver lining is the loss for the season of elite tight end Owen Daniels (every Fantasy League fan's favourite) after a knee injury in last week's win at Buffalo. With the Colts sitting just a tantalising two games ahead of them, the Texans have the ideal opportunity to jump out of the 'Pretenders' category and justify their status as this year's media darlings.
It is also a battle of the top two quarterbacks in the league - Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning, who have racked up the little matter of 4,569 yards, 31 touchdowns and a stunning 58 plays of 20-plus yards to date - and a game that has every possibility of being a high-powered shootout.
So, as Terrell Owens might say (if he was still at a team that had any hope of a winning season), grab your popcorn and tune in for the Matt and Manning Show - and don't switch off until the other Manning has shown if the Giants remain relevant. Or not.
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