Two weeks ago, on the eve of the Tour de France, I predicted that David Millar, who might be called the 'third' British rider in the race after the two who are hogging the headlines, Mark Cavendish and Bradley Wiggins, would win a stage.

Moreover, I forecast that Millar would be victorious this Saturday. I'm dredging this up now before I am reminded of my folly in the event of the Scot failing to win the undulating 199km stage into Besancon, with the kind of sticky little uphill finish that - on paper - should suit him.

David Millar in action for Garmin Slipstream

Let me say now that there was no science - far less special insight - behind the prediction. And for about twenty minutes towards the end of stage six, as Millar raced into Barcelona, alone and holding off the peloton, it seemed that he'd achieve his stage win nine days ahead of (my) schedule. Alas, he didn't - he was caught on the final uphill drag, inside the final 2km, though only after a quite heroic effort.

At the finish he fell into conversation with Laurent Jalabert, the retired French hero, a multiple stage winner. The last time Millar claimed a road stage of the Tour, in 2002, Jalabert was in the same break, and - though they were in different teams - the Frenchman and Scotsman seemed to rekindle the Auld Alliance, with Jalabert ultimately helping Millar to the win, simply on the basis that he liked him.

Heart of the ride

On Monday's rest day I spoke to Millar and asked what Jalabert had told him in Barcelona. "He just said he loved the attack," said Millar, who had jumped clear of his three fellow escapees with 29km remaining, to tee up his mad bid for victory. And there was an element of madness to it, he admitted. When asked what had prompted his attack, he smiled: "Stupidity."

Well, yes and no. The idea of a lone rider maintaining a minute's advantage over a flying peloton in the final hour of a stage is indeed far-fetched. But add in some extenuating factors - the rain, the twisty, undulating roads that provided the launch pad for Millar's attack - and his prospects improve immeasurably. It was Millar's misfortune that the rain stopped, and the roads turned into long, wide, straight boulevards, which meant his pursuers could see him, and, finally, gobble him up.

At the finish, Jalabert encouraged him to try again. "He's pretty sure I'll get a stage win, if I just keep trying," said Millar. "That was his style of racing - impulsive, seizing opportunities when they arise."

For many people Millar's career will forever be defined by the fact that he admitted to doping. He served a two-year suspension from 2004 to 2006, during which time he kept a low profile, but since coming back he has become the peloton's most eloquent anti-doping spokesman. And he has backed up his words with action, sitting on the World Anti-Doping Agency's athletes' panel.

Last year, Millar joined - and became a part-owner of - the Garmin-Slipstream team, which is at the vanguard of the fight against doping. It is a team that aims to restore cycling's credibility. For Garmin winning is important, but so is transparency; they want people to believe in their performances without the questions and doubt that have accompanied some others'.

Elusive win

Going into the Alps, Wiggins and Christian Vande Velde - both Garmin riders - are placed in the top seven, and the podium in Paris is a possibility. But they - and Millar - recognise that the team also needs the stage win that continues to elude them.

"We have to get that monkey off our back," Millar admitted. "I want to win a stage here, that's what I've come here for. But for the team, we're not the new kid on the block any more. It's now down to results more than just the story of us being around, of just existing."

Millar certainly needs a win - his last was in 2007, at the British road race championships. On paper, his 2008 season was disappointing. And yet, with one or two breaks, it might have gone down as one of his best - he was second, and close, at the season-opening Tour of California, and he looked a good bet for a stage win at the Giro d'Italia, until a freak incident - his chain snapped inside the final kilometre. (Type "David Millar throw" into YouTube to marvel at the distance he achieves with his stricken machine, as he lobs it over the barriers.)

It isn't so much a win that Millar is due, but some luck. At Paris-Nice this year he broke his collarbone, but he returned at the Giro, and his form seems good at this Tour. In the opening week, he was one of four Garmin riders who dragged the team to a close second, behind the mighty Astana, in the team time trial.

Natural instincts

Millar has a natural and spontaneous instinct for racing, which is something of a paradox given that his is a thoughtful, complex and deep personality. "It's true," he said on Monday. "I race on emotion - it's all about how I feel on a particular day. When I try to be cold and calculating it doesn't work.

"I'm good at seizing an opportunity when I see one arise," he continued. "The type of rider I am, I have to do that. If I roll out one day and my legs feel great I'll go for it. I'm quite impulsive."

And yet he isn't a Tommy Voeckler type, whose strategy can be summed up as try, try and try again - and then try again. After eight years of trying he finally won his first Tour stage this year. "I see that as a waste of time," said Millar of the attack-attack-attack tactic. "I don't attack unless I think I can win the stage. If I'm in a break it's normally because I think I've got the legs to win."

In which case, here's hoping, for the sake of my pre-Tour forecast, that he will be in the break on Saturday

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