Sky Bet's Jordan Fiddes outlines where his money's going ahead of the weekend's quarter-finals.
Sky Bet's Jordan Fiddes outlines where his money's going ahead of this weekend's Heineken Cup quarter-finals
It's the quarter-final stage of the famous European Cup this weekend and home advantage should be key for two of England's strong performers.
Harlequins host Munster on Sunday in an attempt to reach their first ever semi-final in this competition, whereas the Irishmen are making a record 14th appearance in the last eight.
Quins, however, are the tournament's top points scorers so far and have enjoyed more time in possession than any other side.
That's why I will be going for the London side on the
-7 handicap this weekend at
10/11.
The men from the Stoop have won by this margin or more in all of their games so far in the cup and have scored more than 40 points in all three of their home games.
Munster have an excellent away record in the Heineken Cup, no other team has won more games on the road than them, but they have struggled recently in the RaboDirect Pro 12.
Last weekend they were comfortably beaten by Glasgow Warriors 51-24 and lie sixth in the table.
They limped through Pool 1, winning four from six, and had a points difference of just 60 points.
Harlequins, on the other hand, won all six games and produced a difference of plus 172 points, more than any other side in the competition.
Home advantage
They've been matched all the way in this year's Heineken Cup by English league-leaders Saracens, who host Ulster Rugby on Saturday night.
These two sides have only met four times before, with the Sarries having won three of them.
This game has added spice as both directors of rugby, David Humphreys of Ulster and Mark McCall of Saracens, lifted the trophy together for Ulster in 1999.
Both will plotting each other's demise this weekend, however, and I'm predicting McCall to come out on top.
The Saracens have been given the smallest handicap of all the teams competing in this weekend's quarter-finals, highlighting how close the bookies are expecting this to be.
Ulster have struggled against English opposition in this competition too, losing 19 of their 32 games against Aviva Premiership outfits.
The Ulstermen have also struggled for points this year, scoring just 126, nearly 60 less than their opposition this weekend.
Sarries have enjoyed their games against Ulster, scoring three times as many tries against them than they have conceded.
The
-5 handicap seems too short for this one and, if form is anything to go by, then they should go onto win by at least seven and complete this weekend's double.
View from the Sky Bet trading room...
"In knockout rugby, anything can happen, which is why the handicaps may appear shorter than they usually would.
"Therefore we've seen a lot of action on the favourites for each game already.
"As well as Saracens and Harlequins, the punters have been backing Clermont
(-9) and Toulon
(-8) on the handicaps at
10/11 too.
"Home advantage is key in the quarter-finals and for all four to win at home, you can get odds of nearly 3/1, which we've seen people opt for early on."
