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Juan Smith: The standout Springbok thus far
Argentinians grow up loving and respecting the Springboks. There may not be an excess of rugby and respect in Paris on Saturday as these two physical sides slam into each other in the semi-final of the Rugby World Cup.
It is the first time the two teams have met in the World Cup, the first time Argentina have progressed as far as the semi-finals. It could be dour, it will be hard, and it may just be gripping.
The prospect of the match is exciting because there is so much in it that is cause for speculation and wonder.
Are the Pumas as good as they seem to be?
After all, at this World Cup they have beaten France, Ireland and Scotland on their powerful course into the semi-finals. They have beaten others, including England at Twickenham less than a year ago, their third victory over England. They have drawn with the All Blacks in their history, but not beaten them, and they have not beaten the Springboks - not as Argentina anyway; a team of Argentinians, disguised as Jaguars, beat the overconfident Springboks in Bloemfontein in 1983.
Overconfidence has often been the undoing of South Africa, going right back into the 1930s when the Springbok was lord of rugby's turf. If they are overconfident on Sunday the Pumas will hurl them to earth with a bang. The Springboks have no reason to be overconfident.
The Pumas have been performing much better than the Springboks have been. The Pumas had solid pool victories over France and Ireland while the Springboks nearly came unstuck against Tonga - they needed the cavalry to ride on to save the game. The Pumas have had the advantage of playing only structured teams while the Springboks have faced three teams of rugged Islanders.
But in the quarters the Pumas were not great against Scotland, scoring their only try off a charge-down. But then the Springbok looked like coming unstuck against Fiji until Butch James changed the way of playing with a clever boot.
Booting could play an important part on Saturday and the Springboks seem to have more boomers in Percy Montgomery, François Steyn, Fourie du Preez and Butch James. The Pumas will rely heavily on the swinging boot of Juan Martín Hernández, but then he may just be the best boot of them all.
Goal-kicking is likely to count as it does in rugby, especially at the knock-out stages of the World Cup. When England beat Australia their score was all kicks. The Pumas and the Scots managed just one try each. The Springboks may just have the better of the two kickers in Percy Montgomery, but he is not startlingly better than Felipe Contepomi. Montgomery has Frans Steyn to add distance to the penalty goals, however.
There should not be too much difference in opportunities to kick penalties. In the World Cup so far the Pumas have conceded 39 penalties, the Springboks 38. The penalties profitability will depend more on where than how many. The team that spends more time in enemy territory will have more shots at goal.
Getting primary possession will count. The Springboks look more able at the line-out with Bakkies Botha, clever Victor Matfield who is regarded as the finest exponent of the line-out in the world game, and the excellent Juan Smith. The Scots beat the Pumas in the line-outs. The Springboks could do even better.
The Pumas could well have the edge at the scrum where big CJ van der Linde is not the stablest of men. For the Springboks much will depend on how John Smit keeps his men together. The Pumas should have the edge here. There may be twice as many line-outs as scrums in a match, but scrums count more, as Australia found out in their quarter-final.
Behind the scrum, how much will they let play or will the boot rule? The Springboks have more incisive centres and greater speed and scoring ability on the wing. Both sides have experienced (= ageing) full-backs. Corleto is 29 and has played 35 Tests in a career of many injuries while Montgomery is 33 and has played 92 Tests.
Perhaps the Springboks look better on paper and a lot will depend on the bounce of the ball on the day. That said, the spine of each team is interesting. Argentina have big Gonzalo Longo, who has been on great form at the World Cup, General Agustín Pichot at scrum-half, talented and daring Juan Martín Hernández at fly-half and adventurous Ignacio Corleto at full-back. South Africa have big Danie Rossouw, General Fourie du Preez at scrum-half, Butch James at fly-half, not as obvious as Hernández but often effective, and Percy Montgomery at the back.
Players to Watch: You will watch Juan Martín Hernández of Argentina and you will see clever Felipe Contepomi and busy Mario Ledesma, the squat, bald hooker who looks anything but the athlete but is. On the South African side you will be constantly aware of Juan Smith who has been the outstanding Springbok at the World Cup and you will hope that Bryan Habana gets more of a chance to play than he did against Fiji. And, of course, you will see lots of energetic, fearless Schalk Burger.
Head to Head: Right at the base there will be a great contest between wily old fox Agustin Pichot who, with hair long and socks down, does not look like a rugby player but certainly is, and strong, skilled Fourie du Preez who can do it all but has not, just of late, been playing his best rugby.
At inside centre there is another clash between the clever old and the vigorous young - clever Felipe Contepomi up against the infant prodigy Frans Steyn.
The biggest unit conflict could well be in the front rows when the scrums settle for the stocky men from the land of beef form a redoubtable unit and the South African will need to be able to match up to them.
Recent results: They have not met at the World Cup before and just twice since the last World Cup:
2005: South Africa won 34-23 at Estadio de Vélez Sársfield, Buenos Aires
2004: South Africa won 39-7 at Estadio de Vélez Sársfield, Buenos Aires
Prediction: It simply is not easy. If the Springboks get on equal terms going into the last twenty they are likely to win well. But much will depend on their concentration and patience. South Africa to win by five or so.
Teams
South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 François Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Os du Randt.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis/Gary Botha, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Johann Muller, 19 Bob Skinstad, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 André Pretorius, 22 Wynand Olivier.
Argentina: 15 Ignacio Corleto, 14 Lucas Borges, 13 Manuel Contepomi, 12 Felipe Contepomi, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martín Hernández, 9 Agustín Pichot (captain), 8 Gonzalo Longo, 7 Juan Martín Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Lucas Ostiglia, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Carlos Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe, 3 Juan Martín Scelzo, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Alberto Vernet Basualdo, 17 Omar Hasan, 18 Rimas Álvarez Kairelis, 19 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 20 Nicolás Fernandez Miranda, 21 Federico Todeschini, 22 Gonzalo Tiesi.
Date: Sunday, 14 October 2007
Kick-off: 21.00 (20.00 BST; 19.00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Expected weather conditions: Partly cloudy with a low of 10°C and a southerly of 14 km/h.
Referee: Steve Walsh (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Alain Lewis (Ireland), Chris White (England)
Television match official: Tony Spreadbury (England)
Touch judges 3 & 4: Joël Jutge (France), Wayne Barnes (England)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch (Ireland
Results down the years
1993: South Africa won 29-26 at Estadio de Ferro Carril Oeste, Buenos Aires
1993: South Africa won 52-23 at Estadio de Ferro Carril Oeste, Buenos Aires
1994: South Africa won 42-22 at Boet Erasmus Stadium, Pratt Elizabeth
1994: South Africa won 46-26 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
1996: South Africa won 46-15 at Estadio de Ferro Carril Oeste, Buenos Aires
1996: South Africa won 44-21 at Estadio de Ferro Carril Oeste, Buenos Aires
2000: South Africa won 37-33 at River Plate Stadium, Buenos Aires
2002: South Africa won 49-29 at PAM Brink Stadium, Springs
2003: South Africa won 26-25 at Boet Erasmus Stadium, Port Elizabeth
2004: South Africa won 39-7 at Estadio de Vélez Sársfield, Buenos Aires
2005: South Africa won 34-23 at Estadio de Vélez Sársfield, Buenos Aires
