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Ireland: Together standing tall?
Lording over the various permutations that float over Sunday's encounter between Argentina and Ireland is one unassailable truth: the losers of the battle at Parc des Princes are on the next flight going home.
Okay, a Georgian victory over France earlier in the day would drop another cat amid the increasingly frantic pigeons, but - for sanity's sake - we shall assume that the 'pool of death' has exhausted its supply of tabbies ... surely!
That the business end of the tournament will be deprived of either Argentina or Ireland doesn't seem fair. Both sides can arguably lay claim to their respective national mantles of 'best ever'.
So how can we respect quarter-finals that lack the likes of Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy and Paul O'Connell?
How can we respect quarter-finals that lack the likes of Felipe Contepomi, Juan Martín Hernández and Agustín Pichot?
Would not both sides give the likes of Scotland, Fiji and England - all assured of quarter-final action - a more than decent run for their money?
We can weep all we want about the cruel draw and its dastardly implications, but credit to the Pumas and the Irish for not making too much of a meal out of the subject.
Perhaps both sides are just too used to World Cup misery to see the draw as anything more than their hideous birthright - this is not new territory for either side.
Argentina broke Irish hearts in the 1999 edition of this tournament, recording a startling 28-24 win in that dreaded quarter-final play-off, played just up the road in Lens.
Ireland then wreaked revenge in 2003 by ushering the Pumas out of Australia on the back of a tense 16-15 victory in Adelaide.
So the baton is back in Argentine hands, and it looks like the South Americans will use it to bludgeon the Irish to death.
Surely this is Argentina's win for the taking. They have beaten the hosts, scored 113 points and 14 tries. Their line has yet to breached and they have conceded just 14 points.
The Irish have just 49 points and seven tries to their names. They have a negative points-difference and failed to bag a bonus point against Georgia.
What on earth is going on? This is the side that was tipped to challenge for the spoils. This is the side that wears back-to-back Triple Crowns.
Some suggest that Eddie O'Sullivan's tried and tested battalion of troops are teetering on their 'best before' date, and the raw stats don't lie: something really stinks.
And yet, despite the obvious signs of decay, one can't help but believe that the Irish are still capable of the magic that we have all seen with our own eyes - and not so long ago.
Who knows? Perhaps they threw the game against France. Perhaps they are saving themselves for Sunday and the battles beyond.
But it would seem they have left it all too late. The odds of quarter-final progress are now firmly stacked against Ireland. They need a bonus-point win over the Pumas. And to finish at least eight points clear. And to prevent the Pumas from scoring four tries of their own.
That failure to score four tries against the lowly Lelos is likely to haunt them all the way home.
So is it game over? O'Sullivan, for one, is not ready to throw in the towel. After three weeks of bitter disappointment, he claims that another dramatic twist to the nation's eventful World Cup is possible.
"If you're in this position you have to believe in the team - and they must believe in themselves," he said.
"Within themselves, they should know they have played some excellent rugby over the last 12 months.
"That has eluded us in this tournament, but the key is to stay focused on that goal.
"We know that game is in us; we just have to drag it out and produce it on the pitch.
"Last week against France we got a lot closer to that - except we made life very difficult for ourselves.
"We have to believe that performance is in us. The lads feel it's there."
O'Sullivan insists it is crucial Ireland do not chase the bonus point from the first whistle. He reckons his side must first lay the foundations for the four tries by pummelling the Pumas into submission.
"First you have to win the game. If you go into the match with the permutations swimming around your head then you don't play well," he said.
"Our focal point is to put a huge performance in on the pitch.
"That's very important - and if we go into the match with that mind-set then we will create the opportunity to secure the bonus point.
"For us, it's about playing for 80 minutes. That's the challenge.
"If we do that then the landscape is right for achieving what we need. It's not the time to number-crunch before a game like this."
Meanwhile, the summit of the World Cup's toughest pool awaits Argentina and they will be eager to plant their proud blue and white flag at the top - an act equivalent to cocking a mighty snook at the world's 'bigger' rugby powers.
A single tournament-point out of Friday's game will grant Argentina that top spot, but they have too much respect for the Irish to coast through the encounter.
Like the rest of world - including the Irish themselves - they believe that the men in green are just struggling to free that rabbit from their collective sleeve.
"For us Ireland are not the team of the first three matches," said Argentina captain Agustín Pichot.
"The expectations are always big for Ireland. They are expected to walk into the World Cup and qualify.
"Ireland were ranked five in the world leading into this tournament and some people said they only had to walk to qualify for the next round.
"The pressure was massive and rugby is a very simple and psychological sport.
"They weren't consistent in the first few matches but we respect them, and for us Ireland is always Ireland.
"We know what they can do when they're hurt.
"We need to win this match to make sure we get through.
"Everyone says that Ireland are not playing well, but they're a strong, solid team and they'll pick themselves up for this match."
Irish fans will be hoping that Pichot it right. If not the country's most successful side ever is set to be the first Irish outfit to fail to make the play-off stages of a Rugby World Cup.
What a mess; what a contest!
Players to watch:
For Argentina: Juan Martín Hernández is back at helm for the Pumas, but the role of Leinster star Felipe Contepomi is critical. He knows all the Irish tricks - and the Irish duly know all about him. Some say he goes missing when the heat is turned up; if ever there was a hot kitchen, this is it. Will he fall or will he fly?
For Ireland: On his day Brian O'Driscoll is the best player in the world. Unfortunately, for some unfathomable reason, those days aren't coming around as regularly as they once did. But when BOD fires the whole of Ireland sings - 'talisman' is too weak a word for his influence on the side. Consequently, his first few touches will be crucial to his side's collective psyche. Also look out for Denis Hickie who retires from all rugby after this tournament. Will his illustrious career end at Parc des Princes? He'll be making every effort to ensure that it does not. Meanwhile, Geordan Murphy - the people's choice at full-back - gets his chance to shine. Expect him to grab the opportunity with both hands.
Head to head: Loose forwards v Loose forwards: Ireland will be keen to keep the ball away from Argentina's rabid pack, Argentina will be keen to keep the ball away from Ireland's quick-witted backs, and the arm-wrestle over match policy will take place between the two back-rows. It will be a interesting battle of contrasting styles: Ireland's trio is mobile and dextrous, their counterparts are big and bruising.
Previous results:
2007: Argentina won 16-0 in Buenos Aires
2007: Argentina won 22-20 in Sante Fe
2004: Ireland won 21-19 in Dublin
2003: Ireland won 16-15 in Adelaide (RWC)
2002: Ireland won 16-7 in Dublin
2000: Argentina won 34-23 in Buenos Aires
1999: Argentina won 28-24 in Lens (RWC)
1999: Ireland won 32-24 in Dublin
1990: Ireland won 20-18 in Dublin
1973: Ireland won 21-8 in Dublin
1970: Argentina won 6-3 in Buenos Aires
1970: Argentina won 8-3 in Buenos Aires
1952: Ireland won 6-0 in Buenos Aires
1952: Match drawn 3-3 in Buenos Aires
Prediction: Argentina's needs aren't as great as Ireland's, so surely the men in green will rise to the occassion. Surely they can't lose again? Say what you will about them, but they are not short of passion. Heart and pride to carry them over the line - but it wouldn't be enough to save their skins. Ireland to score two tries and win by five points.
Argentina: 15 Ignacio Corleto, 14 Lucas Borges, 13 Manuel Contepomi, 12 Felipe Contepomi, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martín Hernández, 9 Agustín Pichot (c), 8 Gonzalo Longo, 7 Juan Martín Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Lucas Ostiglia, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Carlos Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe, 3 Juan Martín Scelzo, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacement: 16 Alberto Vernet Basualdo, 17 Omar Hasan, 18 Rimas Álvarez Kairelis, 19 Martín Durand, 20 Nicolás Fernandez Miranda, 21 Federico Todeschini, 22 Hernán Senillosa.
Ireland:15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Denis Leamy, 7 David Wallace, 6 Simon Easterby, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donnacha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan,
Replacement: 16 Rory Best, 17 Bryan Young, 18 Malcolm O'Kelly, 19 Neil Best, 20 Isaac Boss, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Gavin Duffy.
Date: Sunday, September 30
Kick-off: 17:00 (16:00 BST; 15:00 GMT)
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris
Conditions: Sunny, dry, weak south-easterly breeze - max 20°C, min 14°C
Referee: Paul Honiss (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence (South Africa), Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Television match official: Christophe Berdos (France)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch
