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Subscribe to RSS FeedPreview: France v New Zealand
Robinson needs to prove his worth as Ali Williams' lock partner
All rugby eyes are on this quarter-final, France against New Zealand. It is almost as if the World Cup really starts now, the big match, the one everybody wants to see, a final of sorts.
The result of a knock-out match produces finality, at least for the losers, and the divide between victory and defeat is sharp and deep.
This quarter-final is the most intriguing match as it holds the possibility of real upset. After all upset has happened before.
Historically the match is intriguing. The composition of each of the teams is intriguing as it seems each coach has picked as much for the opposition as for what his own team will be doing. Even the referee is an intriguing appointment.
New Zealand have usually beaten France - as they have usually beaten most sides. They lead 34-10 at present with one draw. That broad bit of history says New Zealand will win this one, but France have at times pulled off a crucial shock to New Zealand's expectations.
There was one in 1994 when the All Blacks were leading 20-16 and pressing when fly-half Graeme Bachop kicked a rolling ball down towards the cornerpost on France's right. Philippe Saint-André picked up the ball and started running and passing, untill the French were racing down the touch-line on the right before coming back left for a try that any of four Frenchmen could have scored. Nine Frenchmen handled, the last Jean-Luc Sadourny who scored the try which won the match and the series. The try became known as 'L'Essai du bout du Monde' - the Try from the End of the World.
Jonah Lomu became the youngest-ever All Black in that series and he played in the next historic upset - the semi-final at Twickenham in 1999, one of the greatest World Cup matches ever. Lomu scored the try that gave the All Blacks a 24-10 lead early in the second half, and then the French started to run and eventually ran out winners 43-31. The French have only beaten the All Blacks once since then! But here they are back on neutral ground for a knock-out match in the World Cup, and cannot be discounted.
In 1999 France played New Zealand earlier in the year and got walloped 54-7 in Wellington. This year New Zealand walloped France 61-10 in Wellington.
History teaches us two things - that it repeats itself and that it can go off on a totally new tangent. In other words it could perhaps be disregarded were it not for the obvious grace, power and precision that the 2007 All Blacks possess. But then isn't that what the All Blacks had in 1999? They had Jeff Wilson, Tana Umaga, Christian Cullen, Jonah Lomu, Andrew Mehrtens, Josh Kronfeld, Robin Brooke and Norm Maxwell and a front row of Craig Dowd, Anton Oliver and Carl Hoeft with Kees Meeuws to back them up. France's line-up did not compare favourably with that but they had Christophe Lamaison, Christophe Dominici and Olivier Magne to turn the match on its head in a thrilling fashion that made you laugh, cheer and cry at the same time.
There are some survivors of that match - Byron Kelleher and Anton Oliver for New Zealand and Fabien Pelous, Pieter de Villiers and Raphaël Ibañez for France with Dominici on the bench. Reuben Thorne did not make the bench this time.
There is also the history that tells you that the team entering the World Cup as favourites does not reach the final, and this All Black side has been far and away the favourite to win the 2007 Rugby World Cup.
Enough of history. Will it repeat itself or will it throw up another exception?
The teams are interesting. France have chosen a side of big kickers - Jean-Baptiste Elissalde, Lionel Beauxis, Cédric Heymans and Damien Traille, all exceptional long-distance kickers. They clearly intend keeping New Zealand a long way from their goal-line. Though even from a long way away the All Blacks are dangerous. Presumably the French kickers will bombard the All Black wings. Doug Howlett may be missed.
In going for kickers France may have sacrificed the chance of magic, but then Frédéric Michalak and ageless Dominici are there to come off the bench. In picking burly Traille at full-back, the French may be taking a fatal risk. They had Heymans there against the Pumas and that was a flop.
It is up front that the battle will rage - hard man against hard man. The choice of tough Keith Robinson and Anton Oliver ahead of the more athletic Chris Jack and Keven Mealamu is clear sign that the All Blacks are set to meet muscular aggression with muscular aggression. France have done the same sort of thing with the inclusion of aged Fabien Pelous ahead of the more athletic Lionel Nallet.
It is likely that the match will start with a frightening clash - like that match in Nantes in 1986 when the French took on the All Blacks up front in violent fashion and out-battered them.
It is likely that the French will want to rattle. That may well be their best chance of victory. They have had more pressured matches than the All Blacks have had in this tournament. New Zealand overwhelmed all opposition in winning their four pool matches, beating Scotland, Italy, Romania and Portugal, scoring 309 points to 35. France had two toughies - against Argentina, which they lost, and against Ireland which they won, with easier matches against the sturdy Georgians and Namibia.
France may be better prepared for combat.
The referee Wayne Barnes is an interesting appointment - a 28-year-old barrister with 11 Tests to his name. Keith Robinson of New Zealand has also played in 11 Tests but the novice of the day will be Lionel Beauxis on just nine Tests. All the other players have played in far more. The most capped player is Fabien Pelous with 116 caps. Several players are older than Barnes, including Byron Kelleher, Leon MacDonald, Keith Robinson and Anton Oliver and Julien Bonnaire, Serge Betsen, Raphaël Ibañez, Fabien Pelous, Jérôme Thion and Olivier Milloud of France. The oldest of them all is Pieter de Villiers who is seven years older than Barnes.
The battle will start up front.
Front row against Front row. There are fewer scrums in the modern game but when there are they are telling. The French front row is more experienced but youth has its virtues, too, and these are regarded as the two best front rows in world rugby.
Loose forwards against loose forwards - here is another telling match-up, each set dependent to the performance of their tight forwards and how much their backs create opportunities to play. The New Zealand backs will quite possibly be more creative and so bring their loose trio into the game more.
Line-outs are vital. In the pool matches the line-outs were much of a muchness. France threw in 60 times. They lost 4 but snaffled 12 of their opponents' throws. New Zealand threw in 57 times, lost 3 and won 5 off opponents. Raphaël Ibañez may well be a better thrower into line-outs than Anton Oliver. He is widely regarded as such.
The All Black halfbacks have greater experience than the French pair but Elissalde is such a clever player. The performance of the centres may well depend on McAlister's head and Marty's hands. McAlister can lose his head and Marty's hands can be embarrassingly poor.
As a back three, the French look defensively much better equipped, the All Blacks better on attack. That said, Vincent Clerc, without his silly bonnet, is having a new lease of life.
If you take the important 8-9-10-15 axis in a team New Zealand look both more stable and more creative. So'oialo-Kelleher-Carter-MacDonald could do more for the winning of the match than Bonnaire-Elissalde-Beauxis-Traille.
Players to Watch: You will see Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter. You will see Serge Betsen and Jean-Baptiste Elissalde. You will want to see how Damien Traille and Lionel Beauxis get on, and you may want to find out what on earth it is that justifies the inclusion of Keith Robinson ahead of Chris Jack. If the All Blacks get running, you will get some good views of the Fijian fliers, Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu.
Head to Head: Fleet-footed Daniel Carter against Thunder-thigh Lionel Beauxis. Carter, who still looks so young, is three years older than Beauxis and has played 34 more Tests. How they cope with determined loose forwards will also be of interest.
At scrum-half we have the more physical Byron Kelleher against the cleverer and more skilled Jean-Baptiste Elissalde.
At inside centre we have more skilful Yannick Jauzion who makes playing rugby under pressure look so effortless, against the more explosive, more erratic Luke McAlister.
The game could well be determined by forwards and halves.
There may also be an interesting battle between the two old bulls, hard men who know what it's all about - Anton Oliver of the puzzled look and Raphaël Ibañez of the cool look.
Recent Results: France have not beaten New Zealand this century. Their best result was a 20-all draw in Paris in 2002. New Zealand have won the last seven encounters.
2007: New Zealand won 61-10 at Westpac Trust Stadium, Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 42-11 at Eden Park, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 23-11 at Stade de France, Paris
2006: New Zealand won 47-3 at Stade de Gerland, Lyon
2004: New Zealand won 45-6 at Stade de France, Paris
2003: New Zealand won 31-23 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2003: New Zealand won 40-13 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: Draw 20-20 at Stade de France, Paris
2001: New Zealand won 37-12 at Westpac Trust Stadium, Wellington
2000: France won 42-33 at Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
2000: New Zealand won 39-26 at Stade de France, Paris
1999: France won 43-31 at Twickenham, London
Prediction: If France do not start really well they will lose by lots. We predict that New Zealand will win by more than 20. But imagine the joy in France if their side does the unlikely. It would be just reward for a nation which has so cheerfully and wholeheartedly embraced the World Cup.
The teams:
France: 15 Damien Traille, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 David Marty, 12 Yannick Jauzion, 11 Cédric Heymans, 10 Lionel Beauxis, 9 Jean-Baptiste Elissalde, 8 Julien Bonnaire, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Serge Betsen, 5 Jérôme Thion, 4 Fabien Pelous, 3 Pieter de Villiers, 2 Raphaël Ibañez (captain), 1 Olivier Milloud.
Replacements: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 18 Sébastien Chabal, 19 Imañol Harinordoquy, 20 Frédéric Michalak, 21 Christophe Dominici, 22 Clément Poitrenaud.
New Zealand: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Mils Muliaina, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Byron Kelleher, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerry Collins, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Keith Robinson, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Anton Oliver, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Chris Jack, 19 Chris Masoe, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Nick Evans, 22 Isaia Toeava.
Date: Saturday, 6 October
Kick-off: 20:00 BST (19:00 GMT)
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Expected weather conditions: Partly cloudy with a low of 9°C with a northeaster of 10 km/h.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Touch judges: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa), Tony Spreadbury (England)
Television match official: Chris White (England)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch (Ireland)
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