Who's for the drop?

Tony Mowbray: Facing a tough battle to avoid the drop

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Will your club beat the drop this season?
Apart from markets on teams avoiding the drop, Sky Bet have added a number relegation specials to their Premier League football book.
Newcomers Stoke (4/11) and West Brom (4/7) are favourites for the drop along with Gary Megson's Bolton (13/8).
The same trio are also included in an 8/1 treble to be relegated.
Other interesting trebles see Stoke, West Brom and Hull (12/1), Stoke, West Ham and Fulham (20/1), while West Ham, Fulham and Hull (50/1).
Click here to bet on the Premier League relegation battle.

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This season's battle to beat relegation looks like being the closest in Premier League history with just nine points currently separating the bottom 15 clubs. Nick Miller looks at each team's prospects for the rest of the season and assess who has the best hope of staying up..

Hull City

Current Position: 6th, with 20 points.

Why They Will Go Down
Despite their excellent start to the season, the squad at Phil Brown's disposal is still light on quality. Geovanni has been their inspiration, but he started well at Manchester City last season before fading, while there are reasons why Rangers and Wigan fans weren't crying themselves to sleep over the departures of Daniel Cousin and Marlon King.

Why They Won't Go Down
With 20 points, they are already half-way to the magic 40-point total generally regarded as the safety mark after a little more than quarter of the games. It would take quite a collapse to go down from this point.

Sky Bet odds on relegation: 3/1

Verdict: Staying up

Everton

Current Position: 7th, with 18 points.

Why They Will Go Down
Simply put, they probably won't, but they will have to do a couple of things. Firstly, sort out their home form (just one win in six at Goodison is not great), and secondly start scoring earlier. In the past three games they haven't netted until the last ten minutes.

Why They Won't Go Down
Moyes is too canny a manager, and unlike many of their contemporaries he may well have some money to spend in January, after a relatively frugal (for one reason or another) summer.

Sky Bet odds: 33/1

Verdict: Staying up

Middlesbrough

Current Position: 8th, with 17 points

Why They Will Go Down
Distressing inconsistency. Wins against Spurs, Manchester City and Aston Villa have been balanced out by losses to Sunderland and West Brom, and a pathetic capitulation against a Chelsea side stocked with reserves.

Why They Won't Go Down
In Gareth Southgate they have one of the most promising young managers in the division, and in Steve Gibson they have a chairman who is prepared to come up with the money for new signings when needed (see £12.7million for Afonso Alves last January). Also, they have plentiful attacking options, with Alves, Mido, Sanli Tuncay and even Jeremie Aliadiere amongst the goals.

Sky Bet odds: 16/1

Verdict: Staying up

Portsmouth

Current Position: 9th, with 17 points

Why They Will Go Down
The appointment of Tony Adams could prove to be a massive mistake. The old adage about not promoting a respected assistant might well apply to Portsmouth. If Harry Redknapp was still in charge then there wouldn't even be a debate, but giving a desperately inexperienced manager the task of following Redknapp and possibly coping with a January fire-sale may be calamitous.

Why They Won't Go Down
If they keep hold of their top players, there is not a chance Portsmouth will be anywhere near trouble. While it's one of the great lies in football to say a team is too good to go down, that usually applies to a collection of players, rather than a team. If Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe, and Sol Campbell and Sylvain Distin continue with their excellent partnerships, a top-half finish at least beckons.

Sky Bet odds: 20/1

Verdict: Staying up

Fulham

Current Position: 10th, with 14 points

Why They Will Go Down
This is where it starts to get interesting. Fulham leapt six places with their win against Newcastle at the weekend, and there is every chance they could be in the bottom three if they lose to Spurs next weekend. They are a slight curiousity in that they have an ostensibly attacking set-up (not a defensive midfielder in the first-choice eleven), but have only found the net ten times this season.

Why They Won't Go Down
Simply put, a strong defence. While they have struggled in attack, just ten goals have been conceded, and they have only conceded more than once on two occasions. Also, after a sluggish start Andy Johnson appears to be coming in to some sort of form. They do still have five 'big four' games to come though, starting at Anfield on November 22.

Sky Bet odds: 9/4

Verdict: Staying up, but not by much.

Bolton Wanderers

Current Position: 11th, with 14 points

Why They Will Go Down
Quite apart from the ghastly nature of their football, Bolton have similar attacking worries to Fulham, scoring just 11 in 12 games. Unlike Fulham, for whom Johnson will be a key player, Bolton have Kevin Davies and the unproven Johan Elmander, who 'boasts' a record of one goal in eight games.

Why They Won't Go Down
As they have proved often enough in the past, ugly often works in the Premier League. The chances are that they have just enough quality and more than enough fight to keep their noses clean this year.

Sky Bet odds: 13/8

Verdict: Staying up, but only just.

Stoke City

Current Position: 12th, with 14 points

Why They Will Go Down
Compared to Stoke, Bolton are 1970 Brazil. A powerful team who rarely create and are reliant on those throw-ins (anyone who would care to argue with this can simply be referred to the stat that seven of Stoke's 13 league goals have come via this method), one would think they will be found out soon. Their other primary threat comes from Ricardo Fuller, who with five league goals is their top scorer, with 'Own-goals' slotting in at equal second place with Seyi Olofinjana. So the message to the rest of the division is simple: Work out how to deal with those throw-ins and then stop Fuller - Stoke haven't much else to offer.

Why They Won't Go Down
As with Bolton in previous years, a solid and physical side is often enough to keep your head above water. In the latter stages of the season a degree of fight is required to keep out of bother, and boy do Stoke have some of that. In the last couple of games their midfield has been Salif Diao, Rory Delap, Olofinjana and Amdy Faye - nobody in the division is going to out-muscle that line-up. Also, while it's easy to tell people to deal with Delap's throws, nobody has managed yet, so carnage will continue until someone does.

Sky Bet odds: 4/11

Verdict: Going down, but only just.

Manchester City

Current Position: 13th, with 13 points

Why They Will Go Down
Appalling inconsistency. City's four wins have come at an aggregate score of 15-0, but they have been beaten reasonably comfortably by Wigan, Bolton and Middlesbrough. Even a touch more consistency will put them in a Uefa Cup spot at least, but until this problem is solved there will still be questions about Mark Hughes's future.

Why They Won't Go Down
Those massive, massive stacks of cash. Oh, and Robinho.

Sky Bet odds: 50/1

Verdict: Staying up - comfortably

West Ham

Current Position: 14th, with 13 points

Why They Will Go Down
At the time of writing, West Ham have collected just one point from an available 18. If Alan Curbishley had still been in charge, he would have been shown the door fairly quickly. By way of comparison, when West Ham were relegated last in 2003/4 they had 11 points after the same number of games - and in a far less competitive division. The sense is that Gianfranco Zola is simply not the man for a fight. One of the nicest men in the game and will play excellent football for sure, but will that be enough for a relegation battle? Also, given that it would be rather generous to describe the Upton Park finances as 'dicey', there's every chance key men will be sold in January.

Why They Won't Go Down
If Zola can get a win then confidence will surge back into his side and they may well play their way out of trouble. If Craig Bellamy and Scott Parker can stay fit they will be able to guide the promising crop of youngsters through a tricky season. If sales of crucial players can be avoided, West Ham have enough quality to avoid the drop. However, as the old saying goes, if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle.

Sky Bet odds: 9/4

Verdict: Going down.

Blackburn Rovers

Current Position: 15th, with 13 points

Why They Will Go Down
For all his bluster and confidence, Paul Ince has yet to convince as a top-class manager. The curious decision to sign Robbie Fowler, an injury-prone 33-year-old whose best days were about ten years ago and had no guarantee of a game at Cardiff, set alarm bells ringing, and a record of three wins so far, coupled with the magical transformation of a solid defence into the worst in the division has done little to allay those fears. While they lost key men in the summer, a side that finished seventh last season should not be in this position.

Why They Won't Go Down
Blackburn have had a tricky start to the season. They have played all of the top six bar Liverpool, and the only one of their defeats that you might realistically have expected more from was the 4-1 loss to West Ham early on, a scoreline that flattered the Hammers greatly. Also, if their attacking talent can stay fit, the likes of Roque Santa Cruz and Benni McCarthy will get them out of trouble. And if that doesn't work, they still have the £15million from David Bentley's sale burning a hole in their pockets.

Sky Bet odds: 6/1

Verdict: Staying up, but it could be close

Tottenham Hotspur

Current Position: 16th, with 12 points

Why They Will Go Down
Well, they won't. Before the appointment of Harry Redknapp they were a side chronically low on confidence, playing as if the players had only just met and with no set plan. Their only danger now is complacency and the sort of 'switch off' that occured after last season's Carling Cup win.

Why They Won't Go Down
In a word, Redknapp. While you may not care for him, and even he admits that he's not sure what he's done to change things at White Hart Lane, you can't argue with results. Ten points from 12 so far, of which four were gained against title chasers, is all the evidence you need to say that Spurs will be safe this term.

Sky Bet odds: 16/1

Verdict: Staying up.

Wigan Athletic

Current Position: 17th, with 12 points

Why They Will Go Down
A troubling reliance on one man. Of 13 league goals scored this season, Amr Zaki has been responsible for eight. Emile Heskey and Antonio Valencia have two each, and a Sam Ricketts own goal against Hull City make up the rest. Doesn't inspire confidence in the rest of the side, does it? If Zaki or his foil Heskey get injured, or God forbid leave in January, trouble could be afoot.

Why They Won't Go Down
While they will be extremely worried every time Zaki does fall over, if he doesn't he'll probably score enough to keep them up. Steve Bruce's ability to sniff out a bargain will prove vital in January, and while probably too much is made of his success in the 2003 January window at Birmingham, the discovery of the likes of Zaki, Wilson Palacios and Maynor Figueroa will give Dave Whelan enough confidence to back his man with cash.

Sky Bet odds: 6/1

Verdict: Staying up.

Newcastle United

Current Position: 18th, with 12 points

Why They Will Go Down
You always get the impression that there's more chaos just around the corner with Newcastle. While Joe Kinnear seems to have got things stable at the moment, who knows what's going to happen when the next lamb to the Geordie slaughter arrives to take the club off Mike Ashley's hands and installs his own man. If whoever that is has any sense, he'll keep Kinnear in charge until they are safe from relegation, then send him packing with a note of thanks and a wad of cash. However, applying sense and logic to Newcastle is, has and always will be an extremely dangerous game.

Why They Won't Go Down
In Kinnear, Newcastle have a firefighter, an expert in the 'Us Against The World' school of management that he employed with reasonable success at Wimbledon, Luton and the initial stages of his tenure at Forest. He galvanises teams in trouble and he will do that at St James'. Also, any team that can call on Michael Owen, if only for one game in three, should stay out of bother.

Sky Bet odds: 4/1

Verdict: Staying up.

Sunderland

Current Position: 19th, with 12 points.

Why They Will Go Down
Sunderland's absolutely wretched away form is going to catch up with them one day. Three wins away from the Stadium of Light since gaining promotion (they didn't even manage to beat Derby last season) is an appalling record, and of course puts a great deal of pressure on home games. And cracks are starting to show there as well. While last season they kept their heads above water by winning nine games and picking up 30 of their 39 points at the Stadium of Light, this time around they have already lost three of their six home fixtures.

Why They Won't Go Down
In short, money. Sunderland have spent more than most promoted sides in the past few years, and should they be in trouble come January then Niall Quinn will hand Roy Keane additional funds. Also, Kenwyne Jones is feeling his way back into first team action, and while his goal-scoring record is nothing to get excited about, he will create plenty of chances for his teammates.

Sky Bet odds: 9/2

Verdict: Staying up.

West Bromwich Albion

Current Position: 20th, with 11 points

Why They Will Go Down
If a team isn't scoring, then they had better not concede many, and if they are conceding plenty then they had better score more. Unfortunately for Tony Mowbray's men, the goals columns are the wrong way around. Twelve games in - goals for 10, goals against 21 - it's a dreadful statistic and one that leaves them with comfortably the worst goal difference in the league. They have just one point from the last available 15, at an aggregate score of 14-3. Unfortunately they're only heading one way.

Why They Won't Go Down
There is still room for good football in the Premier League and, of the strugglers, West Brom are probably the nicest to watch. In addition, they have Scott Carson who has been pretty good thus far. Also, they already have three of the trickiest away trips out of the way, and didn't disgrace themselves at Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Sky Bet odds: 4/7

Verdict: Going down, and probably bottom

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