The Cheltenham Festival wouldn't be the Cheltenham Festival without favourites.
There's a theory that if all favourites won then bookmakers wouldn't be driving around the country in their fast cars. But the market leaders at the Cheltenham Festival, which kicks off this year on Tuesday 14 March, do win on regular occasions.
Just take a look at last year, there were 11 winning favourites from the 28 races contested with only one winner that went off bigger than 16/1.
So, with favourites performing to profitable results, working out which ones are certs and which ones are duds on each of the four days seems like a good place to start. For the smarty pants out there, we have left Douvan (Champion Chase) and Altior (Arkle Chase) out such is their clear dominance. Both are heavily odds-on and will win barring accidents.
Here, we take a look at the likely hot-pots trading at reasonable prices on each of the days...
Day One (Tuesday 14 March): Supreme Novices Hurdle, 1:30
MELON
Everyone loves a talking horse - especially in the first race of the Festival where excitement reaches its highest peak of the entire jumps season. A horse that creates a buzz in punting circles without actually achieving very much at all. Step forward Melon from the powerhouse Willie Mullins yard, who has raced just once over hurdles but comes with a back-story that has had tongues wagging all over Ireland since last Autumn.
The talk of him blitzing the gallops up at Mullins' stable contracted his price from 33/1 and the wave of momentum has continued since he skipped 10 lengths clear of Broken Soul on his debut in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown. Mullins has won this race three out of the last four years, so has a very good handle on what it takes to win this unique test of speed of stamina while Ruby Walsh - the best man for the job - will most probably ride. Sounds too good be true, eh? Well, that means it probably is.
Melon's lack of experience will surely count against him in the hustle and bustle of a big-runner field alongside the hullabaloo of the Festival atmosphere. The last horse to win this race having had just one run was Flown in 1992 - it's such a big ask. Look elsewhere.
VERDICT: DUD
Day Two (Wednesday 15 March): RSA Chase, 2:10
MIGHT BITE
Make no mistake, Cheltenham is a specialists track. Year-on-year horses come back and after having a mediocre season thrive in the undulating conditions and Festival atmosphere. But that also works the other way. Some horses just aren't suited to the track, which is a true test of a horse's engine.
Might Bite comes into this novice three-mile showpiece as certainly the one with the most potential following his incredible run in the Grade One Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton, where only a final fence blunder stopped him from winning by 15+ lengths. A repeat of that performance will be enough to win this - but remember, this race is at Cheltenham, where Might Bite has never thrived, not at a flatter-track like Kempton that suits his speedy style.
All 19 winners of that Feltham Chase have been beaten in this, which shows the different in the type of test that awaits horses. Swerve him.
VERDICT: DUD
Day Three (Thursday 16 March): Stayers Hurdle, 3:30
UNOWHATIMEANHARRY
This is the race where it pays to follow the head of the market. It must be one of the most predictable races of the Festival when you consider no winning horse has gone off bigger than 17/2 since 2000. We've had legendary staying hurdles like Inglis Drever and Big Buck's that became a friend of the punters over the years and it looks like we've got a new pal in the form of this lad from the Harry Fry yard.
Last year's winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle has relished the step up into open company. Usually the winners of the key trial races like the Long Walk Hurdle and Cleeve Hurdle are well suited to the test of a Stayers Hurdle and Unowhatimeanharry bagged them both in a style of a horse that is near unbeatable over this trip. He has the demeanor of a sloth but the heart of a lion - it's the perfect mix for a three-mile staying hurdler, especially in this generation which lacks strength in depth. Don't make it complicated, he just wins.
VERDICT: CERT
Day Four (Friday 17 March): Triumph Hurdle, 1:30
DEFI DU SEUIL
Gold Cup day is always a hive of activity and punters look to have a good chance of landing an early blow on the bookmakers chin in the very first race with the highly talented four-year-old from the Phillip Hobbs yard. He's got a very sexy, unbeaten profile, having won all of his five starts and the word from the yard is that they could have a genuine superstar on their hands.
However, despite being the one to beat - there's a nagging doubt in my mind that his jumping may just crack in a strongly run Triumph Hurdle. They go like the clappers in this race with speedy sorts from the flat happy to push on and I fear Defi Du Seuil may just get too far back to charge to the line in front. Take him on.
VERDICT: DUD