Jones Knows betting column: Head rules heart as QPR look ill-prepared for Stoke trip
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Last Updated: 02/08/19 11:50am
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Hello. I'm Lewis.
No sugars please, ketchup on my bacon roll, pint of cider, QPR fan, golf handicap of 16, love landing gambles, somehow married.
Now the pleasantries are over, I'm a man. A man with a plan.
My goal is to beat bookmakers and land blows for punters up and down the land through this new weekly betting column. There will be ups, downs, unlucky losers but most importantly guaranteed well-researched bets that will hopefully lead us onto a long-term path to profit based on sticking to the advised points staking plan. We won't hide away from losing runs. All profits and losses will be recorded.
Whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades.
Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows....
The first day at big school can be an anxious time.
There are bigger challenges and bigger boys. I can certainly relate to newly promoted Luton's situation as this column makes its debut.
But unlike this writer, Luton Town shouldn't be worrying.
The club were last mixing it at this level in 2007, and dropped out of the Football League altogether between 2009 and 2014.
But they are back. And you can guarantee Kenilworth Road will be rocking in front of the Sky Sports cameras on Friday night as the first live match of the season is beamed across the country. Football is truly back: just put it straight into my veins please.
This match is a classic case of early season bias in the markets against a newly promoted side. Recent history shows that the class gap between the top of Sky Bet League One and the Sky Bet Championship is minimal. Two of the last six League One champions, Wolves and Sheffield United, are now Premier League teams. And, nine of the last 13 teams to finish top of the pile in League One went onto win their first home game in the Championship, seemingly keeping hold of momentum despite going up in class.
Throw in Luton's exceptional record at home of being unbeaten in 27 games makes Boro, who ended last season with a whimper and have managerial novice Jonathan Woodgate in the dugout, become a very stinky opening night favourite.
The market has this game priced up wrong, I'm certain.
With the momentum of last season beneath their wings, Luton are a team to keep onside in the coming weeks, especially at home. At nearly 2/1, they must be backed.
So, here we have one of the first recommended bets of the season; may as well make it a ruthless one that shows that I'm not a man that mixes loyalty (come on you Supa Hoops) with money making opportunities. I bleed loot not hoops.
I do hope Kevin Gallen can forgive me.
The alarm bells are ringing when it comes to QPR this season. An upheaval was required after a pathetic end to last season's campaign that saw Steve McClaren's side fall from on the cusp of the play-offs to somehow being embroiled in relegation trouble. New boss Mark Warburton has taken a big fat sledgehammer to the playing staff, signing 12 new players - all with first-team aspirations.
Theoretically, they could all start at Stoke in what would be an entire new starting XI. There's upheaval, then there's upheaval. It's a risky strategy by a manager who has been seemingly given licence to make big decisions by a QPR hierarchy that aren't renowned for shrewd moves.
I'm no expert in chemistry (E at GSCE) but surely it's unlikely that potentially 11 players can start gelling away at a hostile place like this, against a Stoke team with know-how and plenty of cohesion and skill within their ranks.
My heart wants them to play like Queens Park Rangers. My head says Queens Park Strangers.
This Warburton project could take months to start producing results. It's a daunting opening fixture for the Rs and I'm fully expecting Stoke to swat them aside comfortably.
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