Jones Knows betting column: Nice guys Norwich and Huddersfield tipped for relegation
Jones Knows puts up his strongest fancy of the season so far.....
Last Updated: 06/09/19 7:54am
Having a punt this weekend on the football? What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
The name behind this tipping column is coming under scrutiny.
It all felt so fresh at the start of August.
I thought: 'Jones Knows' is going to become a tipping god with his legion of followers closing down each bookmaker one by one, week by week. The name just rolls of that tongue. How catchy. How brilliant. Sky Sports hasn't seen anything like this before. Could you sign this please, Jones Knows. Marry me, Jones Knows.
Just four weeks later....Jones Knows is on the floor, surrounded by losing wagers, ridicule from colleagues and a deteriorating betting balance of -10 points.
A so-called mate suggested: "Jones Knows, you say? You should get done by the The Trade Descriptions Act, pal."
My brain searched for a comeback. I had no immediate response. Bang to rights. Hands held up.
Excuses are my automatic go-to for situations like this but I'm fronting up. The only way to respond is to get my head down, continue to find angles, stick to my gut and a little prayer to the big guy in the sky. I think I've found a beauty this week - do read on.
Due to poor form I wasn't selected for international duty. So, we're swerving a look at the feast of football on Sky Sports this weekend and instead, adding some firepower to the ante-post portfolio, which has got off to a solid if unspectacular start - as seen below. Leicester, Jamie Vardy and Nathan Redmond, keep going lads.
- 1pt: Manchester City & Tottenham straight forecast 5/1 with Sky Bet
- 2pts EW: Jamie Vardy top goalscorer 16/1 with Sky Bet
- 2pts: Burnley to be relegated 2/1 with Sky Bet
- 1pt: Leicester to finish top six 4/1 with Sky Bet
- 2pts: Nathan Redmond to be Southampton top scorer 7/2 with Sky Bet
- 1pt: Jack Grealish to make England Euro 2020 squad 11/4 with Sky Bet
Ante post Premier League preview
Jones Knows: Spurs to finish above Liverpool? Jamie Vardy top goalscorer?
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We are in this together, comrades. Dim the lights, it's time to see if Jones Knows....
Plaudits are being showered all over Norwich this season for their brave and free-flowing style of play. Despite just winning one of their four opening matches it seems Daniel Farke's men will be the cute Premier League puppy this season that gets stroked on the head and tummy tickled by all concerned. I'm not having it.
Even the bookmakers have seemingly jumped on the Norwich bandwagon, pricing them up at odds-against in the relegation market (11/10) and making them the third most likely team to finish bottom (11/2).
This is superb news.
On what we've seen so far, going forward they are attractive and pretty lethal in front of goal with Teemu Pukki finding his feet early doors but defensively they are making it far too easy for players with Premier League quality to make hay.
The way Farke sets his team up, it's all about confidence and finding a rhythm in their attacking play - as we've seen, he won't change.
This streaky philosophy is going to be hard to maintain with goals going in against them at regular intervals and losing runs no doubt affecting the belief of Farke's way of playing.
It's just far too easy to score against Norwich - and as Fulham showed last season, clean sheets are key to survival. The goals against column is already into double figures (10) but more worryingly they've faced 27 shots on target - the most in the Premier League. That suggests the chances Norwich are offering up are very presentable to attackers - as seen in their defeats to Chelsea and West Ham, plus, goalkeeper Tim Krul has made 11 saves - only Hugo Lloris has made more (12).
Norwich may be the Premier League nice guys, but what is it they say about nice guys? They finish last.
Premier League relegation odds with Sky Bet:
- Sheffield United: 5/4
- Norwich: 11/8
- Newcastle: 6/4
- Aston Villa: 15/8
- Brighton: 5/2
- Watford: 5/2
- Burnley: 3/1
- Bournemouth: 3/1
- Southampton: 3/1
Another team that have received far too many pats on the back for mediocrity over the past 12 months are Huddersfield, who are in a deep, deep, rut.
The drop down a level hasn't triggered a response and the losing mentality at the club is proving hard to shake. After taking one point from the first six matches, it means they've only won once in their last 31 league fixtures and remain without a full-time boss with Danny Cowley, Chris Hughton and Lee Bowyer all reportedly staying clear of what could be a career-denting job.
Results so far have screamed relegation candidates - as do their performance data. Huddersfield rank bottom of the pile for total shots inside the box (26) and touches in the opposition box (80) suggesting a clear inability to put teams under any sort of pressure in matches. Defensively too, it doesn't make great reading.
They've conceded 30 shots on target - the fourth worst in the league while a return of recovering no points from losing positions doesn't paint a great picture in terms of their ability to deal with set-backs.
Fantasy Football Team of the Week
Richarlison was back to his best, while Daniel James hit his third in four game
This mentally fragile state Huddersfield find themselves in isn't a unique situation for a recently relegated Premier League side. Sunderland and Wolves have both suffered back-to-back relegations in the past seven seasons. It can happen.
Clubs in the top-four divisions of English football in the last 10 seasons that have picked up one point or less from their first six games suffer relegation 50 per cent of the time, which shows how difficult it is to recover from a bad start.
When you analyse that statistic with their performance data and the clear confidence issues inside the club, it makes the 5/2 available on Huddersfield to be relegated look like a gift.
That price equates to a 28.6 per cent chance of them suffering relegation. I'm no maths genius but the probability should be double that. We're getting the chance to back an even money chance at 5/2 here, comrades. Punish them.
Ian Leggat: Super 6 Hero!
Just what does it take to land the Super 6 jackpot prize? Well, Ian Leggat from Leicester is your man.
Kurt Zouma's own-goal and Henri Lansbury's disallowed effort for Aston Villa last weekend landed him £250,000 as he predicted six correct scores.
His efforts have inspired me. I can see similarities between us. For six weeks in a row before winning the jackpot, Ian did not get a single correct score - on his seventh attempt he correctly chose all six results.
That's how you bounce back, folks.
There's another £250,000 jackpot round this week. Play here for free!