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Premier League goalkeepers ranked by goals they should have conceded, according to Opta

De Gea & Lloris graphic

Two of the world's top goalkeepers will be on show when Manchester United host Tottenham live on Sky Sports 1 HD from 2pm on Sunday - but who is the Premier League's  top shot-stopper so far this season?

United's David de Gea and Spurs' Hugo Lloris regularly receive plaudits for their work between the sticks and will play key roles at Old Trafford this weekend.

But according to detailed Opta statistics, there have been Premier League goalkeepers outperforming that pair so far in 2016/17.

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For every shot taken in the Premier League, Opta rank the likelihood of it resulting in a goal, depending on a variety of factors such as the angle and distance from goal it's taken from. They give each shot a mark from 0 to 1.00. For instance, if a shot is given a mark of 0.5, it suggests that 50 per cent of the time a player would score with that type of shot.

Using this method, they can calculate how many goals one team should score against another in a match.

Comparing that predicted total with the actual number conceded helps us to see which goalkeepers are pulling off vital saves - and which are letting in more than they should.

Top performers

Burnley's Tom Heaton is top of the pile so far this season. The England international should have conceded 24 goals, according to Opta's model, but he's actually only let in 19. He's saved 64 of the 83 shots opposition teams have had on target - a save rate of 77.1 per cent.

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Petr Cech can't prevent a Dusan Tadic freekick rebounding off his back and into the net
Image: Arsenal's Petr Cech ranks top from 'keepers among the current top six clubs

Stoke City's Lee Grant is second in the rankings. The 33-year-old started the campaign as his club's back-up but made headlines for his performance in Stoke's 1-1 draw at Manchester United and, in total, has conceded just five goals, rather than the expected eight.

Arsenal's Petr Cech has also been denying opposing attackers this season. He should have conceded 16 times, according to Opta's formula, but the experienced 'keeper has been beaten on just 14 occassions.

Tottenham's Lloris also has a positive record. He's conceded nine times when Opta say there have been 10 occasions when an attacker should have scored past him.

'Keeper errors?

However, United's De Gea is one of 20 goalkeepers to have played in the Premier League this season who have a negative record.

Chelsea's English defender Gary Cahill (2nd R) shoots past Manchester United's Spanish goalkeeper David de Gea (C) to score their second goal
Image: David de Gea has conceded more goals than he should have done, according to the data

The Spain international should have conceded fewer than 15 times, according to Opta, but has actually let in 16 goals. This suggests he has made errors, letting in some strikes he shouldn't have.

Hull City's David Marshall has the worst record, though. Opta's model says opposition teams should have scored 14 times past him but he's actually let in 22.

How many goals should Premier League 'keepers have conceded?

Goalkeeper Club Actual goals conceded Goals Opta expected them to concede Goals prevented
Tom Heaton Burnley 19 24.06 5.06
Lee Grant Stoke City 5 8.19 3.19
Petr Cech Arsenal 14 16.41 2.41
Michel Vorm Tottenham 1 2.90 1.90
Eldin Jakupovic Hull City 7 8.88 1.88
Kasper Schmeichel Leicester 11 12.86 1.86
Jordan Pickford Sunderland 20 21.16 1.16
Brad Guzan Middlesbrough 1 2.07 1.07
Hugo Lloris Tottenham 9 10.04 1.04
Joel Robles Everton 0 0.87 0.87
Ben Foster West Brom 17 17.66 0.66
Loris Karius Liverpool 10 10.26 0.26
Adam Federici Bournemouth 3 3.21 0.21
Willy Caballero Man City 3 3.00 0
Artur Boruc Bournemouth 19 18.98 -0.02
Darren Randolph West Ham 9 8.90 -0.10
Víctor Valdes Middlesbrough 14 13.76 -0.24
Costel Pantilimon Watford 4 3.73 -0.27
Maarten Stekelenburg Everton 16 15.63 -0.37
Wayne Hennessey Crystal Palace 9 8.12 -0.88
Adrian West Ham 20 18.95 -1.05
David de Gea Man Utd 16 14.92 -1.08
Vito Mannone Sunderland 4 2.86 -1.14
Claudio Bravo Man City 12 10.75 -1.25
Paul Robinson Burnley 4 2.75 -1.25
Simon Mignolet Liverpool 8 6.13 -1.87
Thibaut Courtois Chelsea 11 8.93 -2.07
Lukasz Fabianski Swansea City 31 28.68 -2.32
Fraser Forster Southampton 15 12.19 -2.81
Shay Given Stoke City 14 11.17 -2.83
Heurelho Gomes Watford 20 15.00 -5.00
Steve Mandanda Crystal Palace 17 11.54 -5.46
Ron-Robert Zieler Leicester 13 6.26 -6.74
David Marshall Hull City 22 14.49 -7.51

Watch Manchester United v Tottenham live on Sky Sports 1 from 2pm on Sunday

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