Jones Knows shares his excitement about some monster betting returns on the horizon and recommends a shot and offside inspired 4/1 double for this Saturday
Friday 9 April 2021 17:29, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows thinks John Stones is overpriced to fire a shot against Leeds and Ollie Watkins is primed for an offside frenzy. He says back the 4/1 double.
We are approaching the final few fences of our race trying to bash the bookmakers and after pinging every fence earlier in the season, our jumping has gone to pot since the turn of the year. If we were a Grand National horse, the jockey would be considering pulling us up.
On Christmas Day there was +26 points of profit in our satchels but winners have gone array since, a common theme with the prices I play at, but to be now sitting -5 for the season is a little more dramatic than I had envisaged.
Hope does spring eternal though with some exciting long-term plays that are warming my punting cockles.
James Ward-Prowse is now odds-on to make the 23-man England squad (10/11 with Sky Bet) making the 8/1 advised by me in early 2020 look rather juicy. I'm on elsewhere at 20/1, too.
I can't wait for the squad announcement as my obsession with every Ward-Prowse touch of the ball in a match has taken over a big chunk of my life. If Gareth Southgate does pick the midfielder, it's party time this summer. I might be the only England fan in the pub though with 'Ward-Prowse 23' on my back though.
There's also the 7/1 on both Ward-Prowse and Conor Coady making the squad that I published in March. That particular one might just be scuppered by Southgate's apparent switch to a back four now. Coady surely won't be trusted in that system, yet, like Ward-Prowse he is now odds-on to get a pick. As is Jack Grealish, who I backed all the way back in my 2019/20 season preview to make the Euros squad at 11/4. A bet covered in cobwebs at the back of my unsettled bet shelf. But one that surely will yield a return unless Southgate has a brain freeze or Grealish's body lets him down.
I also may have to purchase a Portugal shirt with 'Ruben Dias - The Brick Wall' on the back this summer. The Manchester City defender, tipped up at 12/1 in February, is now 9/4 second favourite for the PFA Player of the Year award.
So, the bookies are winning the battle but the war is edging in my favour. It's the hope that eventually kills you though, isn't it?
Just the one bet recommended for this column this weekend. But do check out my weekend preview prediction column where there's lots of angles and prices to consider.
Good luck, comrades. Remember, whatever I tip up here, I back. We're in this together.
P+L for the season: -5
One of my favourite betting angles to attack this season has been the fancy prices surrounding opposition centre backs when lining up against Leeds.
Marcelo Bielsa's boys have faced 192 shots from a combination of set pieces and corners this season - the third highest in the Premier League. My advice would be to keep an eye on the City teamsheet at 11.30am and see if John Stones is starting. If he does, then the 6/4 with Sky Bet for him to register a shot on goal looks a fair bet. It's a shout that would have returned as a winner in all three of Stones' last Premier League appearances and in two of those fixtures he managed to find the net. He's very skinny at 4/1 to score anytime, meaning the smart play is to simply back him for a shot. He rates as one of the best bets of the weekend but I want to combine him with another short priced fancy.
The bet to consider revolves around Ollie Watkins. One of my most vivid memories of this season will be Watkins continuously running in behind Liverpool during the bonkers reverse fixture between these two.
Villa will be looking to utilise his running power again and when you throw in Liverpool's high-line, the likelihood of Watkins racking up numerous offsides has to be a play to consider. Only Jamie Vardy has been caught offside more than him this season (26) and along with Fulham, Liverpool have caught the most players offside this season (82) - that's 17 more than any other team. Timo Werner (four), Richarlison (two), Ashley Barnes (three), Chris Wood (three) and Marcus Rashford (five) are all strikers that have racked up multiple offsides in away games at Liverpool this year. The Evens for Watkins to stray two times should give you a fun run for your money.
But the overall recommendation is to combine the Stones and Watkins' angles in a 4/1 double.
