Our tipster's season profit now stands at +49; watch Chelsea vs Tottenham on Super Sunday, live on Sky Sports Premier League
Sunday 23 January 2022 08:36, UK
After a 7/1 winner last weekend to take him to +49 of profit for the season, Jones Knows wants to back Tottenham at Chelsea.
I was left John Travolta-ing all over Saturday and Sunday this weekend to the backdrop of The Trammps' smash hit Disco Inferno. You know it. "Burn, baby, burn - Disco Inferno."
This act of 1970s nostalgia was in homage to the heading ability of Dan Burn for Brighton on Friday Night Football, who landed us a nice 7/1 winner when forcing a header on target against Crystal Palace.
There is nothing more satisfying than a centre-back-inspired winning punt.
I don't have a God. But in times of trouble, I turn to Burn, Shane Duffy, Yerry Mina and the like for my solace. True heroes the lot of them.
I've not enjoyed watching Chelsea's attacking process for two months now and if you read between the lines on Thomas Tuchel's recent comments, he would agree. In their last 11 Premier League games, Tuchel's side have averaged just 1.5 expected goals per 90 minutes - a relatively strong figure but not for a team that is supposed to be challenging Manchester City and Liverpool, who are both averaging north of 2.1 per 90 minutes.
Chances created from open play is also trending badly downwards for Chelsea - a common theme of their performance at Brighton. In those 11 matches, Chelsea have had just 8.4 shots from open play per 90 minutes, which is the eleventh-best of all the teams in the Premier League. Spurs sit joint-top of that particular metric with Manchester City (13.4).
It's that lack of fluidity in forward areas that makes Tuchel's side very vulnerable at 8/13 with Sky Bet. Chelsea have won just four of their last 13 Premier League games, dropping 20 points in that time. And, against a flowing attacking opponent like Tottenham, who are averaging 2.5 expected goals per 90 minutes over their last seven fixtures and were dangerous from all angles in their amazing 3-2 success at Leicester on Wednesday, Chelsea simply have to be taken on at the prices.
Many of you will be screaming at me right now to point out that Chelsea have lost just one of the last 31 league meetings at home with Spurs, winning 20 and won rather comfortably 3-0 on aggregate in the two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final. Yet, Spurs shot themselves in the foot in the cup tie, making basic errors to help Chelsea on their way and most importantly, we're able to get 9/2 on an away win here. With Chelsea's defence still performing amongst the best in the Premier League and Spurs very unlikely to run away with the game, I'm happy to be greedy at up the price by backing Antonio Conte's men to win by one-goal at 7/1.
Newcastle are going to fall into a big Leeds trap here.
To stifle Marcelo Bielsa's team, you need to take the sting out of the game, make it scrappy and defend aggressively. That is simply not Eddie Howe's style. He'll be matching the Elland Road outfit up with the hope his attacking players can produce more quality in the final third.
In fixtures like these where Leeds face off against a genuine relegation-threatened outfit, it's most certainly worth backing them as their man-to-man style usually sees their extra quality shine through. Since promotion, in 13 fixtures against teams in the bottom five of the Premier League, Leeds have won 10 scoring 27 times in the process.
All the ingredients should result in a very watchable, end-to-end football match with both defences likely to wilt under any sort of intense pressure. Only Norwich have shipped more goals than Leeds (39) and Newcastle (42) this season with Bielsa's boys conceding 19 in their last six fixtures. A lack of organisation from set pieces is rearing its head again for Leeds but that is outweighed by the return to a fluidity in attack that once again looks like a Bielsa team, scoring six goals in their last two fixtures against Burnley and West Ham and registering 40 shots in the process.
A shots-fest is predicted with the last three fixtures between these producing 39, 31 and 35 total match shots. A similarly explosive encounter is foreseen and I'm happy to take Sky Bet's special price of 9/2 for Leeds to win, both teams to score and the match to produce 30 or more shots.
