Match highlights of every Premier League game to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app just after full-time; watch Brighton vs Aston Villa and Fulham vs Manchester United live on Sky Sports
Sunday 13 November 2022 17:08, UK
As the curtain temporarily comes down on the Premier League, Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair and thinks Man Utd will win at Fulham.
Assessing changes to how a team plays under a new manager can be profitable if noticing a new trend before the markets do. One area that interests me with Aston Villa is the much higher line Unai Emery is deciding to play with the defence which in turn is going to see opposition players caught offside at a higher rate than what has gone before.
During his spell in charge of Villarreal, Emery's team ranked second in La Liga for catching teams offside and Aston Villa are going the same way looking at the first two fixtures he has overseen against Manchester United, who were caught offside 11 times with eight of those coming in the 4-2 at Old Trafford.
I'd expect the same approach at The Amex, so having a look at the player offsides markets for Brighton - in what should be an enjoyable game to watch - is an angle to consider. Solly March (Evens) and Leandro Trossard (6/4) are priced up pretty favourably for one or more offsides, but Kaoru Mitoma at 4/1 with Sky Bet - if he starts - is the player to concentrate on. Although he is yet to be caught offside this season, he does play very high up against the full-back and does make runs in behind.
This game pulls down the curtain on the Premier League for six weeks and we may just go out with a bang in what should be an exciting encounter under the Craven Cottage lights. Marco Silva won't be afraid of having a go up against United and that should lend itself to a goal heavy evening of action.
There has been an average of 3.43 goals scored in Fulham's home matches this season and that includes a 0-0 with Everton. It's a style of play that draws the opposition out and I'd be very interested in backing United attackers getting on the scoresheet. Fulham have the highest expected goals against record (25.99) in the Premier League this season despite five teams facing more shots than them. This points to high probability chances being offered up by Silva's side.
In the hope that Erik ten Haag selects him, Alejandro Garnacho stands out at the 11/4 with Sky Bet being offered. The teenager absolutely ran riot in midweek in the win over Aston Villa and looks a special talent. A big 2023 awaits.