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Analysis

Champions League 2024/25: Why it matters where each team finishes in the league phase table and the knockout round impact

Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Celtic feature in new Champions League format; 36 teams form a single league, with each entrant playing eight different clubs, four at home and four away; the top eight sides will qualify automatically for the last 16

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Sky Sports News takes a closer look at the new Champions League format, how it works, who could play who and who is in danger of missing out

We are in the home straight of the new league phase of the Champions League - with the five British teams looking to accomplish different feats in the new format.

Liverpool have won each of their opening seven games and need just one point to be certain of top spot in the standings.

But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team in the final game? Not after Barcelona's dramatic 5-4 win against Benfica. Hansi Flick's side are three points behind the Reds but currently hold a superior goal difference.

That is because there is an incentive to keep winning as every single finishing place matters in this new Champions League format.

Read below to see all the permutations regarding the rest of the new Champions League structure and what British teams need to do to qualify...

Champions League - what we know so far

Confirmed in round of 16

Liverpool, Barcelona

Confirmed in round of 16 or knockout phase play-offs

Arsenal, Aston Villa, Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Brest, Celtic, Dortmund, Feyenoord, Inter Milan, Juventus, Leverkusen, Lille, AC Milan, Monaco, Real Madrid

Confirmed in knockout phase play-offs

None

Eliminated

Bologna, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava, Sparta Prague, Sturm Graz, Young Boys.

What are the permutations for British teams in the final round?

Liverpool have guaranteed their place in the last 16 and will bypass the play-off round.

But, as explained above, they haven't yet secured top spot of the league stage.

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Arsenal are all-but through to the last 16 after beating Zagreb.

Although TEN teams will start the final round of group matches within three points of the Gunners, Arsenal's +12 goal difference should be sufficient to see them through even if they lose next week to Girona.

So while Arsenal do still need at least a point to be mathematically certain of progression, only some very dramatic scorelines would demote them out of the top eight.

Arsenal are currently in third place which means, if they stayed in this position, they would face the winners of a play-off match featuring teams in 13th or 14th and 19th or 20th.

The teams currently in those positions are Brest (13th), Borussia Dortmund (14th), PSV Eindhoven (19th) and Club Brugge (20th).

Ninth-placed Aston Villa are one of the 10 teams within three points of Arsenal but such is the congestion that only a win next Wednesday against Celtic will realistically be enough for Unai Emery's side to have any hope of finishing in the top eight.

Celtic's late victory over Young Boys means they will definitely be in the play-offs.

And a win at Villa would give them a chance of reaching the last 16 automatically - although it remains an unlikely prospect even in the event of a victory at Villa Park given there are 10 teams between them and the top eight.

Then there's Manchester City.

Incredibly, Pep Guardiola's team will begin the final round in the relegation zone from the league stage.

Two points and a place below Stuttgart in the top 24, only a victory over Club Brugge will be enough for City to sneak into the play-offs. A win would leave them level on points with Brugge but with a superior goal difference, victory WILL be enough for City to escape the drop zone.

The play-off rounds take place on February 11/12 and February 18/19.

Who could British clubs play next?

There may be some confusion over what this means for your team, so as it stands, let's take a look at what the path for the British teams looks like...

Liverpool (Current seed: 1st)

Knockout playoffs: N/A

Round of 16: vs Bayern Munich (15th), Real Madrid (16th), Juventus (17th) or Celtic (18th)

Arsenal (Current seed: 3rd)

Knockout playoffs: N/A

Round of 16: vs Brest (13th), Dortmund (14th), PSV (19th) or Club Brugge (20th)

Aston Villa (Current seed: 9th)

Knockout playoffs: vs Sporting (23rd) or Stuttgart (24th)

Round of 16: vs Atalanta (7th) or Leverkusen (8th)

Celtic (Current seed: 18th)

Knockout playoffs: vs Bayern Munich (15th) or Real Madrid (16th)

Round of 16: vs Liverpool (1st) or Barcelona (2nd)

Manchester City (Current seed: 25th)

As it stands, Manchester City would be eliminated from European football.

Who qualifies out of the league phase?

To achieve automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Those in ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the other eight spots in the last 16.

Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.

Teams that finish anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, with no access to the Europa League.

Ok, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?

Yes, it does. The way the Champions League league phase works is the final league position gives you a specific route - and specific opponents - in the knockout stage draw.

The below graphic shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds are decided by the league phase - with no separate draws for the last-16, quarter-finals and beyond.

GRAPHIC

For example, the teams who finish first or second in the league phase will face a team who finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Compare that to the team who finishes in seventh or eighth, who could play a team who finishes in 23rd or 24th but also run the risk of facing the team in ninth or 10th spot - which could be a major European outfit.

The advantage for the team finishing first or second is they will guarantee playing a team in the 'middle' of the final Champions League table. Finishing lower down runs the risk of playing a better side.

When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?

  • Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
  • Round of 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
  • Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
  • Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
  • Final: May 31, 2025

Where is the Champions League final being held in 2025?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.

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