Fancy a punt this weekend? Our tipster Jones Knows is in red hot form and is advising his followers to back a 14/1 treble this weekend.
How did we do last weekend?
In the words of Del Trotter: "We've had worse days, Rodders."
Three winning bets from four selections at odds of 12/1, 7/1 and 6/1, takes us to a whopping +43 points of profit for the season so far. From a relatively small outlay, it means we're working at a return on investment of about 380% at our current ratio this season. Many deem a return of investment between 5-10% an acceptable return when trying to get ahead of the bookmakers. So, we're working at a phenomenal number.
Obviously, our current run is an unsustainable figure, especially at the prices I play at, but it's a great feeling to have fully profited from a spell where sound preparation and luck have come together in perfect harmony. I hope I steered a few of you in the right direction.
After the summer debacle and punting heartbreak with ante-post bets on Ruben Dias and James Ward-Prowse somehow going astray, we were certainly owed one from the betting gods.
Last weekend's winners...
- Burnley to avoid defeat, wins for West Ham & Arsenal: 12/1
- West Ham to win, BTTS, +30 shots: 6/1
- Emile Smith Rowe to score & Arsenal to win 7/1
But one thing I've learned from this punting game over the years isn't to get too high when you win or too low when you lose. It's that mental side of the game where many a good man or woman has dented their betting bank.
So, I awarded myself a little fist-pump and it's back down to business.
Read on here for my main bet this weekend....
P+L = +43
1pt on Michael Keane to have a shot vs Manchester United, Newcastle to avoid defeat at Wolves & Arsenal to beat Brighton (14/1 with Sky Bet - bet here!)
I'm officially tipping this one up as a treble as the price is too big to ignore, however, all three bets as singles offer tasty value if playing shorter prices are your thing.
I'm expecting another very disorganised Manchester United showing vs Everton on Saturday, especially without Harry Maguire's leadership skills from set plays. This should be an area where Everton can find routes to goal.
- Michail Antonio, as well as the help of VAR in Leicester's draw with Burnley, landed one lucky Super 6 player the £250,000 jackpot. You too can enter by 3pm Saturday for a chance to make it two winners in as many weeks for the free-to-play game.
In matches where Maguire is missing, United are very vulnerable at defending set pieces. Since the start of last season across all competitions, United have averaged an 'expected goals against' figure of 0.3 per 90 minutes without Maguire in the side from corners and free-kicks - a huge and worrying increase in terms of their defensive output in that area. In that time, they've had to defend 55 set piece situations and have conceded 21 shots at goal - with four of those producing goals, including Kortney Hause's winner for Aston Villa last weekend.
Michael Keane has been Everton's chief goal threat from set pieces this season, firing six shots in his six appearances with one of those resulting in a goal in the win over Burnley. He looks overpriced in many individual shot markets. I'm all for the 13/2 with Sky Bet for him to have a header on target but the bet which is just too big to ignore is the 13/8 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot at goal.
Newcastle are rated as relegation contenders by the markets but I see it slightly differently. I covered their clash with Watford last weekend and they were so unfortunate not to take all three points on the balance of play. With Allan Saint-Maximin playing through the middle - a position which suits him - and Joe Willock supporting from deep, they posted an expected goal figure of 1.93. That is usually enough to win a Premier League game, quite comfortably.
It wasn't a flash in the pan either. Newcastle consistently create chances that equates to them to being a mid-table ranked team in the Premier League from an attacking perspective. This calendar year, their expected goals figure of 36.29 is the ninth highest in the league, higher than Leeds, Aston Villa, Everton and Brighton. A team with that attacking process are begging to be backed at bigger than 4/1 with Sky Bet against such a flaky team like Wolves, who haven't scored before the 38th minute in any of their last 28 games in all competitions and have yet to score at home this season. The Newcastle double chance at 5/4 is a big price.
If Arsenal continue performing at the same level, it's hard to see Brighton breaking down their defence on Saturday evening - a defence that is being led excellently by Gabriel. Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League games in which Gabriel started, conceding just three goals (0.4 per game). Flip that to their record without him where they've won just one of their last seven Premier League games, conceding 14 goals (two per game).
In fact, the Gunners have won eight of their last 11 Premier League games since the start of May - only Liverpool have won more points than Arsenal in that period. A top-six finish is on the cards. I'm more than happy to back Arsenal for an away win here at 6/4 with Sky Bet. Confidence is high, their defence is ultra solid and Brighton are very opposable.