Jones Knows is here to arm you with Premier League insights and betting angles. After predicting Arsenal were overpriced at 3/1 to beat Chelsea, what is he expecting on Sunday?
Sunday 27 December 2020 16:34, UK
Jones Knows is here to arm you with Premier League insights and betting angles ahead of the festive period. He thinks Arsenal at 3/1 are overpriced to beat Chelsea.
The most gung-ho team in Premier League history meet the grisliest one. You couldn't get two more different styles of playing the art of football.
The purist in me wants the Bielsa-ball to come out on top here but the markets have completely underestimated Burnley's strengths for this match-up. At 7/2 it's hard to ignore an away win.
Leeds have the worst defence in Premier League, conceding 30 goals, including 13 in their last four Premier League games. But the killer statistic that tips me in the favour of a Burnley win is the fact Leeds have conceded the most Premier League goals from set-pieces this season (14).
Sean Dyche has got his boys back to a performance level more akin to previous seasons with their defensive axis of Ben Mee and James Tarkowski still vastly underrated. For all Leeds' eye-catching and free-flowing attacking football, Burnley's defence is a thing of beauty when it comes to keeping out goals.
They also possess relentless energy in midfield with Josh Brownhill and Ashley Westwood and now have a strike pairing in Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood that are back amongst the goals. Away win.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
West Ham really could do with getting Michail Antonio fit. He has been sidelined with a hamstring problem since the 2-1 win over Aston Villa at the end of November and despite his wondergoal in the Crystal Palace draw, Sebastien Haller isn't the answer.
That out of the blue goal is the only serious effort the Hammers have had on goal in their last two matches, creating an overall xG of just 0.82. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go through a sticky patch over the festive period.
Brighton have drawn their last two matches but yet again the key data points to a huge underperformance. In the draws with Fulham and Sheffield United, they created a total xG of 3.36 whilst creating four big chances but scoring just once. Can they be trusted here to turn strong metrics into a win? Not for me.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-0 (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Can you imagine the smile on Big Sam's face if he was to become the man to break Liverpool's 66 game unbeaten home run? It would be the ultimate 'mic drop' moment.
West Brom are 25/1 to do so. And, honestly, I'd probably still be apprehensive of backing them if you offered me 250/1.
Liverpool's staggering run will be ended by someone soon but there will be other days for that project. Here, they will simply carry too much firepower.
With the rapid schedule of games on the horizon, there's a strong probability Liverpool will ease off the gas in the second period once the game is sewn up in order to rest some limbs. Klopp's boys, who will be fresher than they have been all season after an eight-day rest period between games, have scored more first-half goals than any other Premier League side this season (17), so are placed to go for West Brom's throat in the early knockings of this one.
That makes the 2/1 for the most goals to come in the first half an interesting angle to consider.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (7/1 with Sky Bet)
This is a big period for Jose Mourinho.
For a manager who guarantees results, three straight league defeats wouldn't exactly sit well with all concerned with Spurs. In fact, it's something they haven't experienced in the Premier League since November 2012 when they suffered straight defeats to Wigan, Manchester City and Arsenal.
Wolves were on the end of a typical Burnley performance on a wet and windy night at Turf Moor - a game where Nuno Espirito Santo cleverly diverted the attention from his team selection failings with a pretty unnecessary dig at referee Lee Mason. For this one, where counter-attacking will be on the menu, surely Adama Traore will be ushered back in from the start.
It's always easy to forgive a team a defeat at Burnley, and at Molineux, Wolves still are a tricky team for the big teams to deal with - as seen when beating Chelsea in their previous fixture.
The first goal will undoubtedly shape this match more than usual. It's too tight to call.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
