Fresh from a 4/1 winner, our tipster Jones Knows thinks West Ham's European push may stutter at Newcastle on Saturday. He's eyeing another 4/1 shot.
How did we get on last weekend?
There seems to be a scary correlation with me being able to tip winners and the pubs being open.
Throughout the latest lockdown this column nosedived, frittering away +26 points of profit to leave me sweating a little on -5 for the season - albeit there were some close calls along the way.
December 15 was the last winner for readers of this column when Ruben Neves fired a shot on target for Wolves vs Chelsea - a time where in certain parts of the country you could enter a premises that served alcohol and legally order a drink. And what do you know, just as the pubs open their doors in April, the losing punting run is broken thanks to John Stones (to have a shot vs Leeds - he had four) and Ollie Watkins (to be caught offside twice vs Liverpool) delivering the goods to slam home a 4/1 winner. Drink it in!
I'm not planning on changing a winning formula, so I've followed suit with a similar price this week. But do check out my weekend preview prediction column where there's lots of angles and prices to consider. There were winners, including a 5/1 West Brom shots angle vs Southampton, to feast upon last week.
Good luck, comrades. Remember, whatever I tip up here, I back. We're in this together.
P+L for the season: -1
Live Premier League
1pt on Newcastle to win or draw and have 15 or more shots at goal vs West Ham (4/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)
West Ham really intrigue/irritate me from a punting perspective.
Their current 55 points haul is their best return at this stage in the Premier League era - only once in their top-flight history have they had more after 31 games. David Moyes has played a blinder in the transfer market and they are 7/4 with Sky Bet to cap a remarkable season by qualifying for the Champions League.
Every week my punting instincts are telling me to take them on at the current match prices. Every week.
I've got a problem I think. An obsession with deeming West Ham are being overrated. It's partly based on knowing Moyes' risk-free style of management over the years will hold them back, plus, them not really passing the eye test with me - but it's mostly about me concluding their recent run of results are unsustainable on the basis of the performance data.
The nine goals scored in their last three games have been amassed from an expected goal figure of just 4.83, much to the individual brilliance of Messi, I mean, Jesse, Lingard.
Unsurprisingly, West Ham's shot conversion rate of 32 per cent over the past three fixtures is the highest amassed by any team.
And despite winning four of their last five matches, West Ham have actually faced the most shots on their goal of any Premier League team in that period (83), averaging out at a whopping 16.6 per 90 minutes.
They can be got at.
West Ham are scoring goals at key moments in matches despite not creating clear cut chances. Fine margins can't keep falling in their favour and at the prices I'm happy to row in with Newcastle this weekend, who should have Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin fit to play from the start. An upgrade which takes them from relegation fodder to a dangerous mid-table outfit.
With Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and Wilson all on the pitch, Newcastle are averaging a whopping 14.9 shots at goal per 90 minutes - a huge increase on their overall average which is 10.9 per 90 minutes since Bruce took the job. Those three will give the Hammers a good workout and at the prices, Newcastle should be backed. Get on them to avoid defeat and have 15 or more shots at 4/1.