Mikel Arteta's extraordinary impact at Arsenal continued as they defeated Liverpool in the Carabao Cup but there is one glaring issue which still needs to be addressed; Watch Arsenal vs Sheffield United live on Sky Sports on Sunday; Kick-off 2pm
Sunday 4 October 2020 15:19, UK
Mikel Arteta's voodoo continues. In their Carabao Cup tie at Anfield on Thursday evening, Arsenal somehow managed to get the better of Liverpool for the third time inside three months.
In fact, this was the sixth success for the Gunners over one of last season's top four in Arteta's fledgling reign. That's more than Arsene Wenger managed in his last two-and-a-half years in charge. Three times as many triumphs over the top teams as poor Unai Emery mustered in twice the time.
Arsenal fans are loving it. Their side is organised again. Committed. Young talent is flourishing and maybe this team is even enjoying a bit of luck. Bernd Leno made seven saves to Adrian's two at Anfield inside the 90 minutes. Crucially, he also made more saves in the subsequent shootout as Arsenal set up a quarter-final clash with Manchester City. It would no longer be a shock if they beat them too.
Such is the progress under Arteta. Two trophies. One vision. Changing the culture at Arsenal was essential if the club was to have any hope of moving forward and there are signs that it is happening.
He inherited a delicate situation regarding Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's contract but that has now been resolved. He has set new standards and most of the players are with him, the supporters too. The structure behind the scenes at Arsenal appears clearer than it has been for some time.
Meaningful progress, then. Now it is about what happens on the field. The transfer window is about to shut and that puts the focus squarely back on Arteta's ability to construct his team.
This was the aspect of the job for which he was hired. There were legitimate question marks about his authority and experience having never managed before. Nobody doubted his knowledge of the game or his ability to coach on the grass. Arteta had Pep Guardiola's ear and his trust for a reason.
But, for all the early promise, for all the tangible achievements already, it is on this grass that one glaring issue still looks likely to put a check on Arsenal's prospects until it is addressed.
All logic suggests this team simply does not have enough shots to win matches on a consistent basis.
"Just hit it," former Arsenal favourite Paul Merson told Sky Sports as he watched the replay of Eddie Nketiah opting against an early shot when one-on-one with Adrian on Thursday. He didn't and the chance was gone. Another did not come until Rob Holding's header midway through the second half.
Arsenal were outshot but not as emphatically as they had been in the Premier League encounter earlier in the week when Liverpool had 21 efforts to their four.
Nor was this as surprising as it was when it happened in their most recent home game against West Ham, who fired off twice as many shots and were unlucky to lose at the Emirates Stadium.
Shot-shy Arsenal has become an underlying theme. Even when the results have been flowing, the shots have not.
Arteta's Arsenal look like a top team in many ways. They construct their play by passing out from the goalkeeper, memorably scoring as a result in the Community Shield win over Liverpool. The commitment to a passing game is total.
So far, so good. Building from the bottom and building from the back, this is a sound basis for long-term success. It is the next phase of the game, the connection with the forward players, that they have yet to master. For now at least, something is still lacking in that final third of the pitch.
It is true that Arsenal are the sixth highest scorers in the Premier League since Arteta took over - behind only last season's top five. But even this goal return comes with a significant caveat.
Their 38 goals have come from only 218 shots, far fewer than any of their rivals. When it comes to shots, Arsenal rank 16th in the Premier League under Arteta. Only 17 sides have been in the competition throughout that period.
So what? That will be the reaction of some Arsenal supporters, of course. They may take the view that this is indicative of a ruthless efficiency in front of goal and take heart in a shot conversion rate of 22.3 per cent - by far the best in the Premier League over the past nine months. When Aubameyang curls the ball into the net, perhaps that is simply an example of his superior quality.
Except, that is not quite true. The reality is that shot volume matters. It is an excellent predictor of future performance, far more so than conversion rates. And besides, there is every indication that Arsenal's current conversion rate under Arteta is unsustainable over an extended period of time.
Over the course of a full Premier League season, take out penalties and no team has ever converted 22 per cent of their shots. The teams with the best conversion rate last season were Manchester City at 18.6 per cent, closely followed by eventual champions Liverpool at 18.4 per cent. Having better players has an impact on conversion rates but Arsenal's numbers are still sure to dip.
The next argument likely to be advanced in support of Arteta's team is that he has refined the style of play. Having worked with Guardiola and Wenger, it is only natural that he might look to cut out those low-quality shots. Arteta wants his players to work the ball into the box instead, being patient in waiting for better opportunities rather than encouraging wasteful efforts from distance.
Here too, the evidence does not support the argument because the expected-goals model reveals that something very different is happening at Arsenal. When taking into account the quality of the shots that they have had under Arteta, based on the location and type of chance, the data suggests that the Gunners' opportunities could, on average, be expected to yield closer to 28 goals than 38.
Indeed, when the quality of the shots is factored in as well as the volume, Arsenal still languish behind. Not only are they adrift of all seven sides that finished above them last season in terms of the quality of chances created since Arteta took over, they are also behind the likes of Everton and Southampton.
These are the creativity levels of a midtable Premier League side.
So what happens next? There are only two scenarios. Either Arsenal start having more shots or they continue at the current level and see their results dip and some of the optimism dissipate.
The real question is not whether or not Arteta has a problem. That much should be clear. The challenge facing Arteta is how exactly he can get this Arsenal team having more shots on goal.
Former Arsenal record scorer Ian Wright is an advocate of moving Aubameyang to a more central position and the appeal of such a switch is understandable when seeing him on the periphery as he has been of late. The captain has had only one shot in his last two Premier League games.
There is no doubt that Aubameyang can be effective in that left channel. That curled shot into the far corner when cutting inside on his favoured right foot has become his signature move.
The decision to move him to the left in the first place was designed to get more goals - and that means more shots - into the team. A potent wide forward alongside a genuine striker.
But the wisdom of that is questionable when watching Alexandre Lacazette squander a rare opening that could and should have brought the equalising goal against Liverpool on Monday night. Every Arsenal fan would have been more confident if it had been Aubameyang on the end of that one.
In truth, while he has been scoring under Arteta, with only Danny Ings and Mo Salah having scored more since Christmas, when it comes to shots he is behind Neal Maupay, Jay Rodriguez and Michail Antonio.
Correct for the quality of those chances as well as the volume and he is behind Burnley's Chris Wood. However good that Aubameyang is at finishing, that is not a sustainable situation.
Arsenal need more shots and putting a finisher out wide is not going to be enough. They need greater creativity elsewhere to ensure that those ahead of them have the opportunities.
Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny have provided an effective screen in a system that has brought security. They have been bolstered at times by wing-backs coming inside to join them in midfield.
But perhaps Arsenal need someone capable of seeing passes like the one that Dani Ceballos supplied to Lacazette for his chance at Anfield. The pursuit of Houssem Aouar is an attempt to remedy that but without a genuine creator in that midfield zone or a third forward who can make things happen for those alongside him, these lingering issues are likely to catch up with them.
It feels like Arteta has done the hard part. Cultural change is under way, everyone is on board, and the big results just keep on coming. Amid such an atmosphere, it might seem boring to note the numbers and perhaps even churlish to point them out. But Arteta will know better than anyone that creating more chances has to be the next step for this Arsenal team if progress is to be sustained.
