Tuesday 18 December 2018 06:23, UK
Neil Reynolds picks six storylines from Week 15, including a muddled AFC playoff picture, the Rams' loss, and a top performance from Minnesota...
The weather has turned across the United States, Christmas is fast approaching and the race to reach the playoffs is intensifying.
And some teams are getting hot at the right point of the year, while others are heading in the wrong direction at the worst possible time. All in all, that made for a fascinating Sunday in Week 15 and should make for an intriguing run to the playoffs over the next couple of weeks.
Here are six of my big takeaways from Week 15 in the NFL.
Heading into Sunday with three straight losses, the Pittsburgh Steelers kept their season alive with a 17-10 win over their conference nemesis, the New England Patriots. I'll get to the Steelers in a moment but first, let's look at a second successive game in which New England made uncharacteristic errors.
The Pats are normally the model of efficiency and play textbook football with smart, productive and tough players at the fore. But in Steeltown, the Pats shot themselves in the foot time and again and committed 14 penalties for 106 yards. That was the most times they have been penalized in a game since 2014.
And there were more problems. New England went zero for three in the red zone and three of 10 on third downs. Most of those errors were forced as the Steelers dominated the line of scrimmage and forced Tom Brady into some hurried throws on a difficult night.
All five of the Patriots' losses have now come on the road and that doesn't bode well for the upcoming playoffs. As for the Steelers, they also dominated on the offensive line and that helped rookie running back Jaylen Samuels run 19 times for 142 yards.
The Steelers are far from complete but they matched up well against New England on Sunday and would not fear facing them again in the post-season.
The Baltimore Ravens had heaped pressure on the Steelers earlier on Sunday with a 20-12 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which continued to show there is another way to move the football in this supposedly pass-happy NFL.
Led by quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Gus Edwards, the Ravens rushed for 242 yards and backed that up with some brutal defense that limited Tampa Bay to just 12 first downs on the day.
The Ravens are not even pretending they have offensive balance. Every Sunday since Jackson took over at quarterback, they have simply lined up and smacked opponents in the mouth. It has been raw and basic, but hugely effective.
Since Week 11, Baltimore have averaged 230.4 rushing yards per game. Opponents know they are getting off the bus running the football and they still cannot stop them. That is a formula that should prove dangerous if the Ravens sneak into the playoffs.
The Indianapolis Colts were throwing the ball all over the field in the opening weeks of the season and not always to good effect as they began the year with one win and five losses.
But they have certainly taken on a new demeanour in winning seven of their last eight games. Sunday's 23-0 blanking of the Dallas Cowboys - who had won their previous five contests - was a lesson in physicality.
The Colts played tough on defense and ran the football very well, with Marlon Mack carrying 27 times for 139 yards and two touchdowns. That offset a relatively quiet day at the office for Andrew Luck, who threw for just 192 yards and no scores.
There is still a chance the 8-6 Colts get squeezed out of the AFC playoff race but if they can gatecrash the NFL's post-season party, few will relish taking them on in January.
Old Man Winter has started to arrive at a great number of NFL games now we are into December and January is just around the corner. And that means there has been a shift in offensive approaches across the league.
In September and October, passing numbers were at a record high and points were being scored for fun. There are still many teams who prefer the pass over the run, but the wins for Baltimore and Indianapolis at the weekend served to remind us all that there has been a subtle shift.
And it is a shift towards a tale as old as NFL time… come the playoffs, you need to be able to run the football effectively and be able to stop the run. You cannot simply play basketball on grass - you need a little bit of balance and you need some toughness on the defensive side of the ball.
In short, the more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same.
The Rams are a perfect example of an offensive juggernaut that is going the wrong way at the worst possible time, prompting head coach Sean McVay to suggest that answers need to be found in a hurry.
Los Angeles fell to a 30-23 defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football and two things stand out to me when I look at this team that has now lost two in a row to fall to 11-3.
Jared Goff is struggling at quarterback and not just in the losses to Chicago and the Eagles. He also struggled against Detroit the previous week. Since coming off the bye week in which Goff had led the Rams to a 54-51 win over Kansas City, the young passer has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions. His quarterback rating in those three games has been a lowly 51.3 as opposed to the 113.5 mark set in the opening 11 games of the year.
And the Rams need to get Todd Gurley going again in the running game. They did make every effort to involve him in their attack on Sunday as the Pro Bowl runner caught 10 passes for 76 yards. But he was not able to impose his will on the Eagles on the ground, carrying just 12 times for 48 yards.
The Rams are still dangerous and these may be first-world problems, but they are still problems - particularly at the vital and all-important quarterback position.
The Minnesota Vikings had been so pass-heavy for so much of this season that it cost offensive coordinator John DeFilippo his job in the week leading up to their meeting with the Miami Dolphins.
Kevin Stefanski took control of the attack and reverted back to basics as Minnesota racked up 220 yards on the ground. Coming into the game, the Vikings had run the ball on 33 per cent of their offensive plays and averaged 85.4 rushing yards per contest. On Sunday, they ran the football on 63.5 per cent of all plays and, while it came against a Miami defense that has struggled badly against the run all year long, it should represent a significant shift to more balance the rest of the way.
Kirk Cousins is a much better quarterback when operating off run fakes on play-action passes and Dalvin Cook (19 runs for 136 yards and two touchdowns) is too good a player to simply be a bit-part performer in this offense.
Defensively, the Vikings also looked back to their very best as they recorded nine sacks and held miserable Miami to 37 net passing yards. One game does not make a season or indicate a long-term turnaround is coming, but it does represent a formula that should become the Vikings' blueprint for the remainder of this campaign.
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