After Luxembourg’s victory in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday, the Racing Debate panel discuss whether Aidan O’Brien’s colt could have the class to take on the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby next season
Sunday 24 October 2021 13:34, UK
Vertem Futurity conqueror Luxembourg has emerged as a genuine dual Classic contender and could prove to be the next champion sire, according to the Racing Debate panel.
Aidan O'Brien's two-year-old emulated his father Camelot on Saturday, taking the Group One contest at Doncaster, despite not enjoying the smoothest journey under jockey Ryan Moore.
Immediately after crossing the line, Luxembourg was cut to as short as 5/1 for next year's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and 4/1 for the Derby at Epsom - the first two legs of the 'Triple Crown', which Camelot just failed to achieve in 2012 when beaten under a length by Encke in the St Leger.
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Asked if he considered Luxembourg a horse for the 2,000 Guineas or the Derby, Sky Sports Racing's Matt Chapman told the Racing Debate: "I wouldn't even have to think about it, he would definitely be both for me. I'd be stunned if Aidan doesn't run him in both.
"Why not use the 2,000 Guineas as the trial for the Derby?
"If you can't win it you don't have to go crazy, but if you can then you've immediately got an incredible sire prospect for the future.
"For Aidan O'Brien there would have been a lot of relief, he wouldn't have wanted to end the juvenile season with a Group One colt winning."
Former jockey Charlie Poste would love to see Luxembourg attempt to go one better than Camelot and expects connections will be keen to prove their colt's speed over the mile at Newmarket.
He added: "From a sports fans' perspective it would be brilliant and something I haven't seen in my lifetime.
"This [owners, Coolmore] is an operation that is trying to make sires so I'd say it's highly likely he'll start off in the Guineas and they'll want to showcase that he is not a slow horse.
"Even with Camelot, all the time that he was going for these middle-distance races they wanted to say how fast he was.
"After the loss of Galileo, we know how important it is for the operation to create super sires and they need one to come through.
"It's been a lean year for Aidan O'Brien on the two-year-old Group One-winning front and Luxembourg has really stepped up.
"This race has a habit of producing Classic winners and it was a very likeable performance, without being scintillating."
Luxembourg has now joined Godolphin duo Native Trail and Coroebus at the top of the 2,000 Guineas market.
Group One Dewhurst winner Native Trail leads the way on 3/1 with Group Three Autumn Stakes victor Coroebus a top price of 6/1, alongside Luxembourg.
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"He's very close in the mix now with Native Trail and Coroebus," Chapman said. "You would be struggling on form to split those three.
"It depends which one you'd have at the prices. At the current prices, I'd rather have 6/1 for Luxembourg than 3/1 for Native Trail, although I do think that Native Trail will beat Coroebus."