Tuesday 14 March 2017 18:24, UK
The time for talking is over as the Cheltenham Festival kicks off. We've locked Lewis Jones away for days to study the form and he's come out with a tip for every race on Day One.
When the tapes go up for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle at 1:30, we roar.
Let's hope those that have backed MELON continue to shout loud four minutes later when the first race of Festival has its first winner.
I've gone round and round with circles with this race, trying to find something to beat the Willie Mullins-trained hot-pot due to his profile.
Just one run coming into a race of this magnitude is an unusual profile for a top-class novice and the form of that 10-length win is nothing to write home about.
However, I'm willing to jump on the hype bandwagon in a race that lacks any rock solid form-lines. Mullins has been unusually bullish, going on record stating that he's well ahead of stablemate Bunk Off Early in terms of homework, which backs up the Autumn vibes that this horse blitzes the gallops at Closutton. Small stakes are advised though, there are much better value propositions on the card.
Remember, Sky Bet are refunding all losing bets on this race up to £20.
The same punting tactic of trying to get the favourite beat but admitting defeat due to the lack of creditable challengers also relates to the chances of YANWORTH, who is the clear horse to beat in the Stan James Champion Hurdle at 3:30.
The one thing that could play against him would be a steadily run affair as he's a strong stayer at this trip but with The New One and Petit Mouchoir likely to go hard early, the race should be set up perfectly for Yanworth to come with a late rattle.
Altior is going to absolutely bolt up at very skinny odds in the Racing Post Arkle Chase at 2:10, but those that tell you that is a race for watching rather than betting can jog on.
The 'Without Altior' market is dripping with value as both Charbel and Royal Caviar - the two market leaders in that market - will surely set up the race for a closer to pounce. That closer could well be FOREST BIHAN, who is unexposed and has the look of a horse that will run through a brick wall for you. Aidan Coleman is booked for the ride, which is a big positive.
Elsewhere - on what is the best day's racing of the year - SINGLEFARMPAYMENT is bound to go close in the Ultima Handicap Chase at 2:50 while ITSAFREEBIE is interesting for Dan Skelton in the Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase at 5:30.
EDWULF will be fully revved up for JP McManus in the JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase at 4:50. He'll take some stopping if his jumping holds up.
And finally, small stakes advised on the chances of APPLES JADE in the OLBG Mares' Hurdle at 4:10.
Advised tips with staking plan:
Cheltenham 1:30: Melon 3/1 with Sky Bet (1pt win)
Cheltenham 2:10: Forest Bihan without Altior 5/1 (2ptsEW)
Cheltenham 2:50: Singlefarmpayment 8/1 (1ptEW)
Cheltenham 3:30: Yanworth 3/1 (3pts win)
Cheltenham 4:10: Apples Jade 9/2 (1pt win)
Cheltenham 4:50: Edwulf 5/1 (2pts win)
Cheltenham 5:30: Itsafreebee 9/1 (1ptsEW)
*The points system is a way of calculating profit and should give you a good idea of how confident the tipster is about the selection is (1 lowest, 5 highest). Whatever your normal stake size is multiply that by the point suggestion. We'll be posting the profit and loss results over the week on the daily tipping page.
