Royal Ascot day three tips: Migration can move quick in Britannia Stakes
Despite being two nostrils away from big returns yesterday, Lewis is still +8 points in profit for the week
Last Updated: 20/06/19 12:42pm
Want some advice for Royal Ascot? Tipster Lewis Jones is here to guide you on a path to profit...
Crossbar misery yesterday. Too many seconds has broken many a good man, including this one. This great game is one of fine margins as Rawdaa (5pts win at 5/1) was caught on the line while how Clon Coulis (1pt EW at 22/1) didn't get up in the Hunt Cup will haunt me for years. We're still in profit for the week as we continue to declare war on the bookmakers.
Headman was all set to be my best bet of day three but he's a non-runner due to the ground. SINJAARI (6/1 with Sky Bet) carries the same formlines so will be carrying my cash. He goes in the King George V Stakes at 5:35, where a high draw - contrary to popular belief - is an absolute must in this race. The last eight winners of this have been drawn double figures therefore Sinjaari's berth in 22 isn't a problem especially as he possesses the early speed in order to get him into a good early position. Under James Doyle he'll do for me.
Looking at past trends, the market is worth following in the Britannia Stakes at 5:00 as 12 of the last 21 winners have come from the first five in the betting. A competitive cavalry charge for progressing three-year-olds it might be, but this is a puzzle that can be solved.
I hope I've cracked the case with MIGRATION (13/2 with Sky Bet), who has snuck in as first reserve. This horse might just be something special in this race scenario where Ascot's stiff mile should suit him. He blew me away at Sandown earlier this campaign, rocketing home to clock a sensational closing sectional.
DAVYDENKO (11/1 with Sky Bet) is his main danger for the master than is Sir Michael Stoute. He regularly outperforms market expectation in this contest with lightly raced three-year-olds, winning with Ajaad (1991) and Mostashaar (2005) and finishing runner-up with Ea (2007), Sieg I (1999) and Komi (1997), all three of those went of double figure prices having run in a maiden/novice event previously. Davydenko has a similar profile and his win at Windsor was produced where he did all his best work late, plus, the form in behind is stacking up.
In truth, it's hard to see past Sunday Sovereign in the Norfolk Stakes at 2:30 but I'm not one for piling into skinny prices in two-year-old races at Royal Ascot.
For those that are that way inclined, please go fill your boots, the King Power owned colt looks a potential monster over the minimum trip. There isn't much strength in depth in this race but it does have a habit of going against the market to the extent that 28 of the 63 horses to finish in the first three in the past 20 years have gone off double figure prices with seven of those winning.
With that in mind, I'm happy to chance STRIVE FOR GLORY (25/1 with Sky Bet) for trainer Robert Cowell, who won this race in 2016. The strong travelling sort found trouble in the National Stakes at Sandown but did come home with a rattle to suggest there could be more to come. Flippa The Stripper gave the form a bit of a boost in the Queen Mary, so I'm happy to play the Cowell runner at juicy odds.
It usually pays to follow the Oaks form in the Ribblesdale Stakes at 3:40 with the Epsom classic producing eight winners from the last 42 to their chance. Fleeting finished a fast-finishing third that day after finding trouble and is the right favourite. I'm not keen on taking her on so my eye is drawn to the "without Fleeting market" where Queen Power is far too short on what she produced at Newbury last time out. Yes, she landed the odds but once again she took an age to get going and looks overrated.
FRANKELLINA (5/1 with Sky Bet) looks the play without the favourite. William Haggas' filly finished a modest fifth in the Oaks but didn't seem overly happy on the track and looks to still be a work in progress. Haggas has already bagged two winners this week and has his string look in fine fettle. If this filly takes a step forward she should be the biggest danger to the favourite.
Many punters will be asking the question whether to back or take on Stradivarius in the Gold Cup at 4:20. Despite a vulnerability on the ground, John Gosden's star always gets the job done. Staying races on the flat aren't really for me to get stuck into so I'll be swerving from a betting point of view.
- 5:00: MIGRATION 13/2 with Sky Bet (2pts EW)
- 5:00: DAVYDENKO 11/1 with Sky Bet (2pts EW)
- 3:40: FRANKELLINA 'without Fleeting market' 5/1 with Sky Bet (2pts)
- 2:30: STRIVE FOR GLORY 25/1 with Sky Bet (1pt EW)
- 5:35: SINJAARI 6/1 with Sky Bet (1pt EW)
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