Ireland v South Africa: Five talking points ahead of the Guinness Series clash in Dublin
Saturday 11 November 2017 17:15, UK
Five talking points ahead of Ireland's Guinness Series match against South Africa in Dublin, live on Sky Sports Action from 5.15pm on Saturday.
With both countries in the running to win rights to host the 2023 World Cup, there is plenty at stake in the Irish capital, but where will the game be won or lost?
Back row battles
The back row is arguably where the two sides are the most evenly matched.
Ireland's loose trio of Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien and CJ Stander have 111 Test appearances between them, while South Africa's Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Francois Louw have 108 international caps in total.
There are some good head-to-head battles expected on Saturday - with blindside flankers O'Mahony and Du Toit both physical players who offer a good lineout option to their respective teams.
With Louw and O'Brien there will be a powerful edge at the tackle area, while Stander and Kolisi are typically called upon heavily to carry the ball up.
Additionally, there is a lot of versatility in Ireland's back row, with O'Brien having played all three loose forward positions and Stander having played in the No 6 and No 8 jersey for Joe Schmidt.
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Louw has played in all three jerseys for the Boks, and Kolisi has played No 6 and No 7 under Allister Coetzee. This year the Boks have switched up their back row at scrum time, so it will be interesting to see how they operate in Dublin.
The showdown between both sets of loose forwards as well as their set-piece combination will be intriguing, and a huge factor in deciding Saturday's outcome.
2004 - sliding doors moment?
In the build-up to the 2004 Test between these two nations, Jake White was asked in a press conference how many Ireland players he felt would make his Springbok team.
White responded that three would make the matchday squad, one of whom would challenge for a starting spot. It caused a media backlash for White, who was accused of arrogance by the Irish media.
The Irish players needed no further motivations to go out and win that Saturday, beating the Springboks 17-12 in front of their jubilant home support, with Ronan O'Gara scoring all his side's points with a try, three penalties and a drop goal.
Up until that game, South Africa had enjoyed a history of dominance over Ireland; only losing once to the Irish in the history of the game, all the way back in 1965.
But that 2004 victory sparked a period in which Ireland have flourished, winning five of the last nine Tests between the two sides. White's words continue to haunt the modern Boks as they struggle to revive their recent record against Ireland.
Half-backs: Advantage Ireland
While the back rows may cancel each other out, Ireland have a clear advantage in the half-backs; British and Irish Lions Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray outrank their opposite numbers in terms of international experience by a long way, and their game management should prove superior in Dublin.
Elton Jantjies had not started a game for South Africa until the second Test of the last year's June series between these two sides, coming on as a replacement for the injured Pat Lambie in the tour opener.
Jantjies' partner Ross Cronje, on the other hand, is in his first year of international rugby after making his debut against France in June - resulting in a half-back pairing that boasts 26 Test between them.
Caps and starts aren't everything; Jantjies and Cronje have had a successful partnership for the Lions in Super Rugby, and their running game could pose problems for Ireland if they are able to set the tempo for the clash. But are the Springboks planning to run the ball?
Looking at the team they've picked it looks as though there is a heavy focus on the set piece, as well as a lot of up-the-jumper rugby from the Bok forwards.
If tactical kicking is going to be the order of the day on Saturday, Murray and Sexton are a pairing far better suited to that style of play, and should stamp their dominance on their opposite numbers.
Lineouts and driving mauls
In 2014 the Boks arrived in Dublin with a monster pack of forwards, including the likes of Bismarck du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Marcell Coetzee and Duane Vermeulen.
It was set up to be classic Bok rugby, but the Irish were brilliant in nullifying the visitors' gameplan by refusing to contest the driving maul, and sending a subsequently onside Jack McGrath to contest the ball. What resulted was a South African side out of ideas, and an Ireland victory by 29-15.
Three years later and the Springboks have once again named a big pack, but most telling is the inclusion of Pieter-Steph du Toit in the No 7 jersey. It means the Boks will be putting heavy emphasis on the lineout, which is potentially an area of concern for Ireland.
The last time Devin Toner and Iain Henderson started a Test together was against Scotland in Ireland's Six Nations opener. The lineout completely let down Schmidt's side that day, which paved the way for a Scotland win. The Irish scrum were on top of their counterparts at Murrayfield, but when a penalty was kicked to touch the visitors struggled to consolidate possession and maintain pressure, and they were kept out of the game.
The lineout is one of the few areas where South Africa look to have a potential advantage on Saturday, but even if they are able to rule the skies, will Ireland have another clever plan in place for when the ball comes back down to earth?
Back three bombardment
There is a lot of inexperience in both sides' back three when it comes to international rugby - of the six starters, Rob Kearney was the only player capped by his country at the beginning of this year.
Andrew Conway came on as a replacement in Ireland's win over England in the last round of the Six Nations, while Jacob Stockdale made his debut in June. All of the Boks' back three made their debuts this year.
Dublin is a cauldron, and tactical kicking will be the order of the day all through the encounter, so expect both fly-halves to pepper the outside backs with plenty of high balls to test their composure, and lots of kicking to the corner to test their positional awareness.
Kearney is a safe pair of hands under the high ball, but the Boks will be aware that he doesn't offer Ireland the same kind of counter attacking-threat as someone like Simon Zebo, so they will press hard in defence when chasing the kick.
With the Boks' lineout options they may kick to touch and try put pressure on the throw of Rory Best, while Sexton and Murray will surely put plenty of air on the ball and hope that their back row can chase well and cause havoc at the tackle area.
Both sets of wingers are lethal finishers when given a sniff of the tryline, but how they act in defence under pressure will be telling in Dublin.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray; 1 Cian Healy, 2 Rory Best (c), 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Iain Henderson, 5 Devin Toner, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 7 Sean O'Brien, 8 CJ Stander.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 John Ryan, 19 James Ryan, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Darren Sweetnam.
South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje; 1 Tendai Mtawarira, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Francois Louw.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Uzair Cassiem, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Francois Venter.
