Daniel Ricciardo isn't expecting a repeat of last year’s Belgian GP win

One year on from winning the Belgian GP and Daniel Ricciardo isn’t expecting a repeat in Sunday’s race. But he is hoping for a marked upturn in Red Bull’s fortunes later this season.

The Australian took the third of his super-opportunistic breakthrough wins at Spa 12 months ago, profiting after Mercedes team-mates Lewis Hamiltion and Nico Rosberg collided.

Ricciardo said he expects the frontrunners to once more "stretch their legs" in the Ardennes Forest this weekend but, after a tougher season to date, doubts he'll be in a position to pick up the pieces this time .

"You just have to lower your expectations, but I understand now this year where we are so I'm not getting too excited by the thought of winning every race," he said on Thursday

"At least spraying a bit of champagne at the last race was good. It got a few cobwebs out I guess, so that was a nice little relief."

Yet there's been evidence that Red Bull are turning the corner. Team-mate Daniil Kvyat joined Ricciardo on the podium in Hungary – and the latter said he had the scent of victory in his nostrils there after a late charge.

A collision with Rosberg scuppered his chances but prior to that Ricciardo insisted: "I really thought it was going to happen. But at the same time I knew it wasn't going to be given to me and I needed to make it happen.

"It was worth a try."

Aerodynamic changes centred on a new front wing are helping Red Bull improve, although Renault's sizeable power deficit is still hindering them – particularly at 'power tracks' like Spa and Monza in a fortnight's time.

Ricciardo is also facing the prospect of more grid penalties but is cautiously optimistic the upgrade Renault has planned for Russia "could be a very big turning point" – perhaps helping them target Ferrari.

"It's a very strong car. I think our understanding now of where the sweet spot is is a lot better, and I have confidence we'll find it more often than not," he said.

"On paper, if we gain horsepower and everything we should, sure it should put us in a good position. You'd think it would put us comfortably alongside Ferrari.

"But on the dyno sometimes, it may say something but if you put it on track it can be something else. So I'll always downplay it a bit; I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than let down."

Meanwhile, with Ferrari announcing on Wednesday that they intend to retain Kimi Raikkonen for 2016, Ricciardo downplayed rumours that had linked him to the drive.

"I was very honest with the answers I gave and there was no direct contact," he added. "When I say direct, there wasn't any indirect contact either.

"It was through the media, that was the only contact I had."