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Max Verstappen v Daniel Ricciardo: Who will win their duel at Red Bull?

While the attention of the F1 world has understandably been trained on the fight between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg this year, a new team-mate rivalry is shaping up that promises to be just as exciting, just as fast, and, potentially, just as decisive in the ultimate battle for supremacy in the drivers' world championship.

When Max Verstappen was promoted to partner Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull in early May, the accompanying debate was whether the ousted Daniil Kvyat had been unfairly treated. Three months later, however, and the narrative has shifted into arguments about whether Ricciardo-Verstappen is now the best partnership in F1 and predictions about which of Red Bull's two drivers will ultimately prevail.

Will it be Ricciardo, the perennially-smiling Australian who chased Sebastian Vettel out of his own town, or Verstappen, the youngest-ever race victor in F1 already famed for his daring overtakes? 

Or is it just too close to call yet?

What do the numbers tell us?
Although Ricciardo heads Verstappen in the Drivers' Championship by 100 points to 90, his advantage is dependent on an early-season buffer built when Verstappen was driving for Toro Rosso.

More pertinently is the fact that since his promotion Verstappen has out-scored Ricciardo by 77 to 64.

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Verstappen v Ricciardo: Head-to-head at Red Bull

Event Verstappen Points Ricciardo Points
Spanish GP 1st 25 4th 12
Monaco GP DNF 0 2nd 18
Canadian GP 4th 12 7th 6
European GP 8th 4 7th 6
Austrian GP 2nd 18 5th 10
British GP 2nd 18 4th 12
Overall 77 64

If those headline numbers weren't already impressive, Verstappen has also finished on the podium three times in his six races for Red Bull and won his first race with the team at the Spanish GP.

As Kvyat also claimed a podium finish, in China in April, one of the more remarkable statistics of the year is that Ricciardo has only delivered one of Red Bull's five 2016 podiums.

No wonder the trademark grin has been replaced by the trace of a frown. 

And what don't the numbers tell us?
But those statistics must be read with a series of significant caveats applied.

For starters, two duff strategic calls cost Ricciardo likely victories in both Spain and Monaco.

Barcelona was particularly costly for the Australian. Had Verstappen rather than Ricciardo, who led most of the race, been put on what transpired to be the slower three-stop strategy and their finishing positions been reversed then Ricciardo rather than Verstappen would be currently 77-64 ahead.

And Ricciardo was also unfortunate in the British GP last week when the timing of the Virtual Safety Car caught him out after shadowing Verstappen through the opening laps.

"Daniel is a class driver who has demonstrated already this year that he is at the top of his game. He's going to have a couple races, I'm sure, where everything falls his way because these things swing around," stressed team boss Christian Horner afterwards.

"We have two strong drivers in the car who are pushing each other, which is great to see. There is a confidence in the team which is growing."

While Ricciardo's form in Spain and Monaco was testament to the revitalising effect of Verstappen's appointment, the Dutchman's displays in Austria and Silverstone indicate that he is also relishing the challenge of being pitted against an elite driver - and being driven to a higher level in the process. "I have to up my game compared to where I was before in Toro Rosso because he is very quick," says the Dutchman. 

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Red Bull's Max Verstappen pulls off the best overtake of the British Grand Prix, taking second place on lap 16 by passing Nico Rosberg

A different story in qualifying
Until last week's British GP, Ricciardo had out-qualified Verstappen in every event they had competed at as team-mates. So does Ricciardo have a pace advantage or were those pre-Silverstone Saturday defeats the result of Verstappen's relative unfamiliarity with a car he only drove for the first time in practice at Barcelona? 

Verstappen v Ricciardo: Qualifying record at Red Bull

Event Ricciardo Verstappen Margin
Spanish GP 3rd 4th 0.407
Monaco GP 1st 21st N/A
Canadian GP 4th 5th 0.248
European GP 3rd 9th 1.604
Austrian GP 7th 9th 1.173
British GP 4th 3rd 0.305

"I'm still very new in the car and it will only get better," the teenager told reporters in Baku. "I already feel pretty good and it will get better time by time, race by race. The races are going really well."

While Verstappen is rightly famed for his raw pace and audacious overtakes, it's the youngster's wheel-perfect defence and race craft which have arguably been the most impressive aspect of his nascent career at Red Bull - heady praise given Silverstone contained a contender for overtake of the year.

As Sky F1's Martin Brundle wrote after the race: 'He's so remarkably mature for his age, it's as if he's 28 and not 18. His race craft, his pit-stop choices and his wheel-to-wheel combat were outstanding.'

Although Ricciardo appears to have the edge over a single lap, Verstappen seems capable of nursing and protecting in a way that Ricciardo cannot. 

An outstanding talent may already be growing into the complete driver. 

What next for Ricciardo v Verstappen
Heading to the Hungaroring and Hockenheim, the pressure is on Ricciardo to strike back. For the first time since his top-class calibre was confirmed by his resounding defeat of Vettel, then the reigning four-time world champion, the Aussie's reputation is under scrutiny. 

'Daniel has a challenge on his hands, but it's a challenge which I believe he is more than up to,' Brundle wrote. 'He has all the tools he needs for a fight with Max, and that will mean more fireworks for us to enjoy.'

The stakes have also been raised by expectations Red Bull will battle Mercedes for victory on two circuits tailor-made for the RB12.

"We are actually in a race with Mercedes at certain races," said Horner. "Hopefully there are circuits coming up which should favour us."

But that's only half of the story: F1's 'rules reset' for 2017 should also be tailor-made to Red Bull and the aerodynamic mastery of their chief designer, Adrian Newey. With their partnership contracted to last until 2019, Ricciardo-Verstappen may well be to F1's next era what Hamilton-Rosberg is to the sport's current format.

For the moment, Red Bull are sitting pretty with a partnership which is formidably quick, improving, and devoid of acrimony. "There is no animosity, there is just two guys going flat-out and going for it, it is very healthy for us," says Horner.

But this is the easy bit. It's how the partnership copes in the red-hot heat of a title fight which will be the ultimate test. After all, Hamilton-Rosberg was a model of civility in 2013 when Mercedes were only on the fringes of the elite.

The Ricciardo-Verstappen rivalry is only just warming up. 

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