Saturday 26 December 2015 15:42, UK
Sky Sports News HQ presenter Alex Hammond answers the questions in a Festive edition of her weekly racing blog.
It's a race I've been looking forward to with one of the strongest fields we have seen for years. The fact that dual winner Silviniaco Conti is 7/1 (with Sky Bet) and fourth in the betting tells the tale and he will need to be at his very best to be good enough to land the hat-trick this year.
I think the Brits will have their work cut out with Don Cossack and Vautour ahead of the shortest of the home challengers in the market. That horse is of course Cue Card who has been brought back to his very best by Colin Tizzard and comes here off the back of a win in the Betfair Chase. Don Cossack is the horse I have already backed and I still think he's a fair bet at 9/4. He's a superstar in Ireland and he deserves that billing having finally fulfilled the lofty reputation he was saddled with as a novice hurdler. He's only been beaten once in his last nine starts, dating back to October last year and that defeat came in the Ryanair Chase where he wasn't disgraced.
His main challenger comes in the shape of Vautour. He was workmanlike in winning at Ascot on his reappearance but will have improved significantly for that and I expect to see more of the old Vautour that blew us away in the JLT at the Cheltenham festival. We will only know of he truly stays the 3 miles when push comes to shove and it will be interesting to see if he does.
Smad Place is the only other runner with a single figure price at the moment (8/1) and I'm pleased to see Alan King let his Hennessy winner take his chance. He will no doubt evoke memories of Desert Orchid, who won this three times, as he bears more than a passing resemblance to my all time favourite racehorse. I haven't seen anything to sway me and I'm happy with my ante-post wager on Don Cossack for Gordon Elliott and he's my main fancy over the Christmas period.
We are being spoiled aren't we?!
I love these staying chasers and whilst I think Gordon Elliott can win the big Christmas prize in the UK, I think it will be business as usual in the Lexus for Willie Mullins the Monday after Christmas. The fourteen entries are dominated by horses owned by Gigginstown House Stud who could have a spectacular few days and it's their Don Poli that I think can win this Grade 1 Chase. Road To Riches (in the same ownership but with a different trainer) is his closest market rival, followed by Djakadam, but it doesn't sound like the latter is going to be heading to the sports over Christmas with Mullins hinting that he may "keep his powder dry" with him.
Don Poli isn't flashy like some of the horses that he will meet this season, but he gets the job done. The fact he was able to win at Aintree with his tack almost on his backside is creditable. All the weight will have been in the wrong place and he can't have felt comfortable. Despite that, he won nicely in the end. He's a tough horse and is still only 6, so he should still be on the up. Some of the Mullins horses have needed their debut runs, so given the likely improvement he'll be hard to beat.
It looks like conditions could be gruelling at Chepstow on Welsh National day and one horse we know won't mind it like that is last year's winner Emperor's Choice. It's not a complete rule of thumb, but Venetia Williams seems to have plenty of horses that handle that type of ground well and although he's 10lbs higher in the weights since his win 12 months ago, he has a great chance of finishing in the frame again. He had his first run since his triumph last year at Haydock last month, winning again and another bold show looks to be on the cards. If ever a jockey needed a bit of a boost its Aidan Coleman. He made the decision to take the job as first jockey to John Ferguson this season and the pair have taken the jumps scene by storm. However, from April he will have to carry on without Ferguson who has made the tough decision to hand in his licence to concentrate on his commitments with Godolphin. He'll be missed.
Midnight Prayer will be popular too. Alan King's 10 year old won the NH Chase at the Cheltenham festival back in March 2014 and he has stamina to burn. He picked up a problem before this race last year and we didn't see him again until last month when he ran a very encouraging trial for this year's renewal. Another horse about to turn 11 is 2013 winner Mountainous who is now 5lbs lower in the weights than he was that day. Kerry Lee is doing well since taking over from her father Richard.
Upswing is also dangerous to discount for Jonjo O'Neill. Cogry was running on behind Upswing at Cheltenham and looks the type to go well for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He relishes a stamina test. Theatre Guide ran well when second in the Hennessy last time out and if his jumping holds up could run well too. Shotgun Paddy was well fancied for the race last year when an early error put paid to his chances, he's 4lbs lower this time. He's not badly handicapped and can't be ruled out. If Emperor's Choice is under consideration then so Benvolio must be too. He was just touched off last year in this for Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies and is better off at the weights with his conqueror. He finished behind Tour Des Champs in the trial for this, never really getting into things.
It's such a tough race to call, but I wouldn't put you off backing Emperor's Choice to win it for the second successive year.
Well, the race isn't looking like an attractive betting medium with Sprinter Sacre a 4/9 shot, but I was so impressed with him at Cheltenham and credit to Nicky Henderson and his staff and vets for getting this superstar back to his former glory. I was at Cheltenham the day he won the Shloer Chase and it felt like a privilege to be there. Let's hope he can lay to rest the ghost of his run in this race two years ago when pulled up with a fibrillating heart. He needs to step forward again from Cheltenham, but all the signs were there and I think he'll win at Kempton.
Gary Moore and son Jamie have also worked the oracle with Sire de Grugy and it was a relief to see him keep the Tingle Creek after broad-siding Special Tiara at the last fence at Sandown. If Sprinter has taken the expected step forward for his win then Sire de Grugy may have his work cut out.
This week someone asked me on twitter who this Willie Mullins bloke was that I seem to mention on Sky Sports News HQ every day! Well, whoever it was asking that question, they will surely know exactly who he is by the end of the year. It's an amazing achievement to dominate the jump racing on both sides of the Irish Sea, but he has so much horsepower it looks like that will be the case over Christmas.
Faugheen may have been beaten by his terrier like stablemate Nichols Canyon in the Morgiana Hurdle, but there was possibly something amiss with the previously unbeaten Champion Hurdler and I think we'll be calling that defeat a blip after the festive period. That's not to take anything away from the winner who is a very smart performer, but Faugheen is the one for me in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, I fully expect him to bounce back, although at odds on he's another horse that I'll just be watching. He hung in the manner of a horse that was feeling something at Punchestown and I suspect something will have come to light afterwards. He has some high class opposition at Kempton with Sam Twiston-Davies choosing to ride exciting young hurdler Old Guard over his old pal The New One. It's tricky for a stable jockey to justify getting off something from his yard even one he has such a long standing relationship with and Noel Fehily comes in for the ride on Nigel Twiston-Davies' stable star; a nice spare!
Douvan can put the icing on the Christmas cake for Willie Mullins in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, he appears to have improved for another summer on his back and barely put a foot wrong on his chase debut at Navan a month ago. Un De Sceaux can be the cherry on top of the said Christmas cake in the Dial-A-Bet Chase! Who is that bloke Willie Mullins?!
Speaking of the mystery trainer, there's a horse of his I'm looking forward to seeing in action again. Beau Mome ran too badly to be true on his debut for the stable last month and I'm hoping he can bounce back in the Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He could be a fair price after his below par Irish debut.
There are so many horses I'm looking forward to seeing and Native River has a great chance of giving Colin Tizzard a Grade 1 win over the Christmas period. He lines up in the Feltham (now the Kauto Star Novices' Chase) and comes into the race having won emphatically at Newbury last month. He stays the 3 mile trip well and can expose any stamina weaknesses in nearest rival Tea For Two. I wish you all a Happy (& successful) Christmas.
