Phil Clarke: Who will be Super League's Leicester City?

Can this season be as good as the last? We had some amazing games in 2015, some unpredictable results, drama, disappointment and delirium, especially in Leeds.

During the winter break I've wondered if it was just a golden age, a one-off season that will never be repeated, but then I came across a brilliant article written in The Economist which made me think not. The feature looked at competitive balance in football in the English Premier League and it threw up some interesting questions for Super League in 2016.

The author of the article stated that at the start of this football season, bookmakers were offering odds of 1500/1 for Leicester City to be top of the table on Christmas Day. It was a ridiculous thought, a bit like me saying that Salford would win the Grand Final (In fact, the odds for that are only 40/1).

If you don't follow football, let me remind you that Leicester City had been bottom of the table for most of the previous season and had only just avoided relegation.

So could Salford, or any of the other teams who finished in the bottom half of the Super League in 2015 do what teams like Leicester and Bournemouth have done this year? If the newly-promoted team from the south coast can beat Chelsea and Manchester United what's stopping Wakefield from winning at St Helens, Wigan or Huddersfield?

And what about Chelsea! They've gone from being champions in May to the bottom half of the table in a decline that nobody expected. Could the same thing happen to Leeds Rhinos now that Sir Kevin, JP and Kylie no longer play?

Nobody predicted that Jose Mourinho would be sacked by Chelsea before Christmas, but things like that happen in professional sport. Which Super League coach will be looking for a new job by the time we get to the summer holidays? It's impossible to say, but it's very often the one you least expect before the season begins.

You'd have to say Daryl Powell is the closest thing that we've got to Claudi Ranieri. Could the Tigers take the next step with another 12 months under his coaching?

Last year Leeds beat Salford 70-6 in July. After watching Leicester beat Chelsea in December I started to wonder if the Reds could turn things around that quickly that they could beat the Rhinos when they play them in April. History would suggest not, but you never know with Tim Sheens in charge.

Rugby league may have suffered slightly as a result of the dominance by three main teams over the last decade - only Leeds, Wigan and St Helens have won the Grand Final in that time. We've had only four different winners of the competition in the last 20 years but I feel that this may be due to change this year.

There are only two ways in which teams can dramatically improve their performance levels from the previous season. One is by using different players, the other is by using different tactics. If the teams that finished in the bottom half of Super League do the same things as last year, with more or less the same squad, then they'll finish in the bottom half of the table again.

Recruitment

Recruiting new blood takes up a large part of a club's focus. Some players are promoted from within when the development of a young player pushes him up, some are signed from other clubs. It's very hard to predict but the three most significant movements this winter could involve Brett Ferres (Huddersfield to Leeds), Justin Carney (Castleford to Salford) and Joel Monaghan (Warrington to Castleford).

Will it be the club they've left or the one they've joined who will see the biggest change? You'd have to say Daryl Powell is the closest thing that we've got to Claudi Ranieri. Could Castleford Tigers take the next step with another 12 months under his coaching and do what Leicester City are doing in football?

My football colleagues at Sky Sports tell me that much of Leicester's success this season has been down to the signing of a relatively unknown midfield player who is both an aggressive defender and has the ability to get the ball to the team's best attacker. That sounds very much like the sort of skills which could be very useful in Super League. Which club has him in 2016? The standout signing isn't always the big-name signing.

As the pitch size and rules remain the same (with the exception of a few minor alterations) the only way for coaches to have an impact is to alter their tactics or dramatically improve their team's skill. From what I see from the commentary box, teams play the same way - with the exception of a few - so where will the innovation come from in Super League XXI?

Trend-setters

Leeds' success in 2015 may lead to other teams attempting to copy their style - they made more passes and offloads than any other team in the competition. It's what usually happens in rugby league. Winners set the trend and it would be great from my point of view as the Rhinos were brilliant to watch last season.

However, smart coaches know that the way Leeds played might not suit their squad. It's not quite as simple as asking every forward to play like Adam Cuthbertson, although I do think we could encourage more of them to pass and offload the ball more frequently.

Tactics in football offer greater variation than in rugby league. Players can position themselves in different places and play can move in a three-dimensional manner. Six tackles and the north/south aspect of rugby restricts the game plan a little, but it will be fascinating to see in the early rounds of Super League if any teams have altered their plan of attack and defence, and whether that will be enough to significantly change their season.

The play-off element of Super League means that teams know they only have to qualify in the top four to stand a chance of winning the competition. This luxury does not exist in the Premier League and the article on football looked at the decline at Chelsea since the end of the last season.  

The writer showed how Jose Mourinho had used his best players in more games and for more minutes than in comparison to other squads and as a result gave them a two-week longer off-season rest. Some people think the slow start that Chelsea made to the season put them under added pressure from which things just got worse.

Being a coach of a Super League team isn't easy and getting things right during pre-season training is tricky, even though none of us see what's going on. Managing a squad without games presents its own problems and the coaches will be relieved that the competition begins soon.

Last year's Middle 8s was fascinating and gave the game more excitement and. From where I was sat, there was a greater intensity and feel to the matches right from the first game in February and it will be interesting to see how it goes in its second year.

It's cold and dark where I'm sat writing this but the thing that's keeping me going is the thought of a spectacular try at the end of a sensational game when the sun is shining and one set of supporters are thinking life can't get any better. Roll on the Super League.